National Situation Update: Thursday, September 7, 2006
Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).
Commercial Aviation ORANGE
National Weather Forecast
South:
Scattered showers and thunderstorms concentrate along the eastern Gulf Coast, Florida, south Georgia and extreme southern South Carolina, near Hilton Head. An isolated shower or storm may pop up in widely separated locations in far West Texas, the Oklahoma Panhandle, Alabama, north Georgia and the southern Appalachians, but most spots will stay dry.
Midwest:
A healthy Canadian cold front will bluster into the northern Plains and northern reaches of the Upper Midwest, resulting in a few showers in the Midwest and central Plains. Overall, precipitation will be sparse.
Northeast:
With the exception of a stray shower, the Northeast will be sunny and pleasant. Look for temperatures near seasonable norms with highs in the 70s and 80s, north to south.
West:
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will spot the Four Corners states and possibly parts of southern Idaho and western Wyoming, but much of the West will continue to have dry weather. (NWS, Media Sources)
Tropical Activity
Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:
At 5:00 AM EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located about 660 miles east northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, and 1,105 miles southeast of Bermuda.
Florence is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph, and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph, with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles, mainly east from the center.
The official forecast will show strengthening and indicates that Florence could become a hurricane in the next day or so.
Late in the forecast period the global models suggest that Florence will be approaching the southwestern periphery of the high and begin turning northwestward.
A tropical wave located several hundred miles west of the Cape Verde Islands continues to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear somewhat favorable for a tropical depression to develop during the next couple of days as the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
Elsewhere, tropical storm formation is not expected through Friday.
Central and Eastern Pacific
Tropical Depression Kristy is located about 1,200 miles west of Baja, California poses no threat to U.S. interests.
Elsewhere, tropical storm formation is not expected through Wednesday.
(USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center).
Western Pacific
Formation of a significant tropical cyclone is possible approximately 121 miles northeast of Wake Island. Winds in the area are estimated to be 23 to 28 mph, and moving northwestward at 15 mph. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 23 to 28 mph. The potential for the development within the next 24 hours remains good.
Elsewhere, tropical storm formation is not expected through Friday. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center).
Earthquake Activity
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Preliminary Damage Assessments
PDAs in Virginia are scheduled to begin September 7, 2006 for Individual Assistance in five counties and one independent city, and Public Assistance for 21 counties and two independent cities
PDAs in North Carolina began September 6, 2006 for Public and Individual Assistance in 12 counties, and are scheduled to be completed September, 8, 2006. (FEMA HQ)
Wildfire Update
National Fire Activity
Initial attack activity: Moderate (165 new fires)
- New large fires: 6
- Large fires contained: 6
- Uncontained large fires: 51
- Area Command Teams: 1
- Type 1 IMTs: 10
- Type 2 IMTs: 22
- Fire Use Teams: 4
Two MAFFS C-130 aircraft deployed to Klamath Falls , OR.
Two MAFFS C-130 aircraft deployed to Boise , ID.
2006 Season: 8,394,654 acres burned to date (9-6-06)
Structure Loss 2006 Season year to date: Primary 654, Commercial 53, Outbuildings 1351
Critical resource needs: (as of 9-06-06)
- Mid-level fire-line and aviation management personnel
- Type 1 Hotshot Crews
- Type 2 Initial Attack Crews
- Type 2 Crews
Outlook:
Dry thunderstorms are possible in eastern Oregon , the northern Great Basin, western Montana and western Wyoming through Thursday. Thunderstorms over the southern Great Basin will become increasingly wet. Hot, dry weather over most of the West will give way to cooler weather and gusty winds for Friday and the weekend, especially over Montana , Idaho and the Pacific Northwest . (NIFC)
Major Evacuations/Structures Threatened:
There are 23 fires still posing a significant threat to structures and other improvements. The remaining large fires have either mitigated the structure threat or are in remote areas not currently a threat to improvements.
Derby Fire, 15 miles south of Big Timber, Montana – 215 primary structures and 30 outbuildings threatened and 26 residences and 20 outbuildings destroyed. 45% contained.
Purdy Fire, 21 miles west of Dubois , Wyoming - 300 primary and 2 commercial structures threatened. 75% contained.(National Interagency Fire Center , US Forest Service, FEMA RVIII)
Wildfires on Record Pace with 2005
U.S. fires in 2006 are on a pace to break the United States 2005 record for acres burned by wildfires. The pace is 71% above the 10-year average for this time of the year. In 2006, more than 8.3 million acres have been burned so far, compared to the 8.6 million record acres scorched in 2005. Last year 4.4 million of the total acres burned were in Alaska .
The hardest-hit states in 2006 :
Texas , with over 1.4 million acres
Nevada , with over 1.1 million acres
Idaho , with over 670 thousand acres
Montana , with over 610 thousand acres
(NOAA/CIRES -- Climate Diagnostics Center )
Disaster Declaration Activity
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Last Modified: Thursday, 07-Sep-2006 08:06:19 EDT