• Emergency Managers and Personnel
• Situation Reports
• National Incident Management System
• Grants & Assistance Programs
• Training
• Contacts
• Planning
• Best Practices

National Situation Update: Tuesday, September 5, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Commercial Aviation ORANGE

Weather Hazards for the Week

• Any river flooding that developed over the weekend across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will recede.
• An enhanced risk of wildfires will continue for the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin where large wildfires are ongoing.
• Drought persists over parts of the Southwest, the Plains and Southeast, although some improvement is likely in many areas.
• From September 4 - 7, the risk of flash flooding exists across southern California, Arizona, New Mexico, and west Texas.(NOAA Climate Prediction Center).
  

National Weather Forecast

Northeast
The heaviest and most persistent rainfall is forecast for the Appalachians, along the West Virginia-Virginia border, and from there northeastward into eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Localized amounts in excess of an inch are possible.

South
Showers and thunderstorms are predicted for much of Oklahoma, northern and eastern Texas, and Louisiana. Showers and storms will be more prominent in eastern Tennessee, the Carolinas, Georgia and Florida and parts of south Texas, especially in and around the Big Bend country.

Midwest
Showers and thunderstorms will spot and dot the Midwest from Wisconsin and Michigan southward through the Ohio Valley. The Plains, meanwhile, will be warm and dry.

West
Isolated showers or thunderstorms may skitter across the far southern parts of Arizona and New Mexico, and isolated storms may dot the Intermountain region, but the vast majority of the West will be warm and dry.   (NWS, Media Sources)

Tropical Activity

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Six, located about 1030 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph, and is expected to continue on this path for the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph, with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

A tropical wave accompanied by a broad surface low pressure system is located about 350 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. Although shower activity remains disorganized, environmental conditions appear somewhat favorable for some slow development to occur during the next couple of days as the system moves westward at about 10 mph.

Elsewhere, tropical storm formation is not expected through Wednesday.

Central and Eastern Pacific

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Kristy, located about 795 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. The official forecast indicates gradual weakening and degeneration to a remnant low in the next 24 hours; however Kristy could remain a tropical Cyclone a little longer than indicated.

The remnants of Tropical Depression John are located over north-central Gulf of California, 481 miles south southwest of the Arizona/New Mexico boarder and moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph. This motion will likely continue until dissipation later today. Moisture from John could help produce 1 to 3 inches of rain over the southwestern United States and western Texas. The system will be closely monitored, however regeneration is not anticipated.

Elsewhere, tropical storm formation is not expected through Wednesday. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center).

Western Pacific
There are no threats to U.S. Territories or Possessions.   (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center).

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity

• Initial attack activity: Light (129 new fires)
  
• New large fires:      9
  
• Large fires contained:     3
  
• Uncontained large fires:   45
  
• Area Command Teams:     0
  
• Type 1 IMTs committed:     8
  
• Type 2 IMTs committed:   19
  2006 Season: 8,098,182 acres burned to date
  Structure Loss 2006 Season year to date: Primary 258, Commercial 16, and Outbuildings 517

Critical resource needs:

• Mid-level fireline and aviation management personnel
  
• Type 1 Hotshot Crews
  
• Type 2 Initial Attack Crews
  
• Type 2 Crews

Outlook: 
Dry thunderstorms are possible in the Northwest, northern Great Basin, and western Montana through Wednesday. 

Major Evacuations/Structures Threatened:

Derby Fire:  The south central Montana fire has burned 26 homes and is classified as the nation's No. 1 firefighting priority. About 265 homes were evacuated Sunday night.  Fire continued to actively spread on the southwest side Monday.  About 770 firefighters and support personnel are working the blaze. Fire officials have ordered more people and equipment to help fight the fire in anticipation of a difficult week.

There are 20 fires still posing a significant threat to structures and other improvements.  The remaining large fires have either mitigated the structure threat or are in remote areas not currently a threat to improvements  (National Interagency Fire Center, National Infrastructure Coordination Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)