National Situation Update: Monday, September 4, 2006
Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).
Commercial Aviation ORANGE
National Weather Forecast
West: Showers and thunderstorms, some fed by the remnants of Tropical Storm John, will strike the interior of Southern California, southern Arizona and southern New Mexico today. A handful of storms might pop up in the Intermountain region, but would not have any significant impact.
South: Scattered showers and thunderstorms will dot much of the South. Part of the region stands a good chance of remaining dry: much of Arkansas, Louisiana, western Tennessee and Mississippi. Alabama may see only isolated activity. The most widespread showers and storms seem destined for the Carolinas, southern Florida and portions of Texas extending from around El Paso to Dallas.
Midwest: An upper-air low over the mid-Mississippi Valley will help focus scattered showers and thunderstorms over Illinois and southern Wisconsin today. A few showers and storms are also likely in southeastern Minnesota and Iowa, with isolated activity possible in parts of Michigan, Missouri and northwest Indiana. A separate weather system is likely to produce showers and storms in eastern Kentucky.
Northeast: A few showers and thundershowers will dot the Northeast here and there, but by and large, today won't be too bad in most areas. Many locations may remain dry all day, especially from Pennsylvania and the northern portions of the Virginia and West Virginia eastward into southern New England. (NWS, Media Sources)
Tropical Activity
Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:
As of 5:00 am EDT, September 4, 2006 the center of tropical depression six was located near latitude 15.6 north longitude 41.1 west or about 2,610 miles southeast of Miami, FL.
The depression is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph. with higher gusts. The depression could become a tropical storm today. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
Central and Eastern Pacific
At 11:00 pm EDT, September 3, 2006 the center of Tropical Depression John was located near latitude 28.4 north longitude 113.1 west or about 384 miles south-southeast of San Diego, CA. Moisture from John will be spreading into the southwestern United States over the next couple of days.
The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph. On this track the center is expected to remain near or over the Eastern Baja California coast early today.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph with higher gusts. Further weakening is likely and John could dissipate within the next 24 hours. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
Western Pacific
There are no threats to U.S. Territories or Possessions. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center).
Earthquake Activity
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Preliminary Damage Assessments
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Wildfire Update
National Preparedness Level 5
The National Interagency Coordination Center is debuting a new report format for their daily Situation Status Report.
National Fire Activity
Initial attack activity: Light (107 new fires)(** Uncontained large fires do not include Wildland Fire Use or limited suppression incidents. **)
New large fires: 3
Large fires contained: 4
Uncontained large fires: 41
Area Command Teams: 0
Type 1 IMTs: 6
Type 2 IMTs: 14
Fire Use Teams: 3
Two MAFFS C-130 aircraft deployed to Klamath Falls, OR. Two MAFFS C-130 aircraft deployed to Boise, ID. U.S. Army Task force Blaze deployed to the Tripod Complex fires, WA. The Task Force is being released today and will travel back to Fort Lewis Washington on Sunday September 3, 2006.
Australia and New Zealand assisting with 92 fire specialist and managers. Canada assisting with four 20-person crews, and 20 fire specialist and managers.
2006 Season: 7,899,146 acres burned to date
Structure Loss 2006 Season year to date: Primary 653, Commercial 53, Outbuildings 1346
Critical resource needs:
Mid-level fireline and aviation management personnel
Type 1 Hotshot Crews
Type 2 Initial Attack Crews
Type 2 Crews
Outlook:
Dry thunderstorms are possible in the Northwest, northern Great Basin, and western Montana through Wednesday.
Across the West, thunderstorms will develop from south to north through Monday, then shift east Tuesday and Wednesday. Expect wetter storms south and drier storms in the north.
A warming and drying trend will continue over much of the West through mid-week. Unstable conditions (high Haines Index) will exist from the Cascades eastward to western Montana the next few days.
Major Evacuations/Structures Threatened:
There are 16 fires still posing a significant threat to structures and other improvements.
The remaining large fires have either mitigated the structure threat or are in remote areas not currently a threat to improvements. (National Interagency Fire Center, National Infrastructure Coordination Center)
Disaster Declaration Activity
On September, 3, 2006, FEMA-1643-NH was approved to close on September 15, 2006.
On September, 3, 2006, FEMA-1644-ME was approved to close on September 15, 2006.(FEMA HQ)
Last Modified: Tuesday, 05-Sep-2006 09:09:00 EDT