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National Situation Update: Sunday, September 3, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Commercial Aviation ORANGE

Ernesto Dampens East Coast

The remnants of Tropical Storm Ernesto put a damper on the last big tourism weekend of the summer for many people, dumping rain on the Northeast Saturday afternoon after drenching Virginia and North Carolina on its run up the East Coast.

It caused flooding that forced hundreds of people out of their homes, and left hundreds of thousands of  homes and businesses without electricity Saturday in the mid-Atlantic states. At least four deaths were blamed on the storm in Virginia, plus one in North Carolina.

At 5:00 pm EDT Saturday afternoon, the remnants of Ernesto were located about 20 miles northwest of  Baltimore, MD,. moving north at 10 mph with winds of 40 mph with higher gusts.

Flood watches and warnings remain in effect in areas of North Carolina, Virginia, Pennsylvania, New York, and New Jersey.

Wind advisories are in effect for parts of New Jersey, Pennsylvania, New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Vermont.  (NOAA, Media Sources)

National Weather Forecast

Northeast:  A weakening rain shield associated with the remnants of Ernesto is forecast to linger across northern Pennsylvania, New York and parts of New England. As the storm continues to wind down, the threat of heavy rains and flooding has greatly diminished. A few thunderstorms will pop Virginia and West Virginia.

South:  Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are in the forecast along the spine of the Appalachians, along the Southeastern Coast, and across much of Florida. A weather disturbance will move into West Texas spreading the current rain shield from West Texas into central and eastern Texas.

Midwest:  Showery rain and thunderstorms will shift from the Plains, through the Mississippi Valley, to the Great Lakes.

West:  A remnant of monsoon moisture keeps the risk for thunderstorms alive in the Southwest. Southwesterly winds aloft are transporting moisture from the tropical Pacific into Southern California, Arizona and New Mexico. This moisture combined with low-level moisture from the Gulf of California and the Gulf of Mexico will help concentrate locally heavy rain and thunderstorms across the region bordering on Mexico through Sunday.  (NWS, Media Sources)

Response to Remnants of Ernesto

FEMA Region I

No State EOCs or RRCC activated.
No significant issues.

FEMA Region II:
RRCC Region II

In contact with JFOs in NJ and NY that were established due to flooding in June - July time frame.
PDA teams on standby.
Staffed at Level III, daytime only.

FEMA Region III:
RRCC Region III

Deactivated as of September 2, 2006, 4:00 pm EDT.
Most significant issue is loss of electric power and downed trees region wide.

Approximately 190,000 customers without power, most in the southeast part of the State.  Power restoration may be completed by Sunday night.
There have been four confirmed deaths related to the storm.
PDA teams will be available September 3, if needed.

Some minor flooding reported in eastern Essex County.
Approximately 12,500 customers were without power; restoration expected to be completed by end of September 2.
State EOC closed September 2, 2006.

Approximately 40,000 customers without power across the state.
No flooding issues.
State EOC closed September 2, 2006, 4:00 pm EDT.

Currently 3,000 customers remain without power.
No significant issues.
City Emergency Operations Center stood down September 2, 2006.

All state assets returning to home station.
Minimal power outages across the state.
No significant river or stream flooding.

FEMA Region IV:
RRCC Region IV
Deactivated as of September 2, 2006, 3:30 pm EDT.
Identified JFO facility in Raleigh, NC if necessary.
North Carolina
State continues to monitor the flooding situation Elizabeth City and Duplin County.
State and local resources are sufficient to meet existing requirements.
PDA teams are available to begin assessments at State request.      

US Coast Guard
All ports along the East Coast are operational.

NORTHCOM
Operations in support of Tropical Depression Ernesto are standing down.
Coordination ongoing with Department of State regarding possible support for Hurricane John.  No requests to date for support.

 National Guard Bureau
A total of 330 guardsmen are on duty in NC, VA, FL, MD, and District of Columbia.

US Corps of Engineers (USACE)
Flood protection projects in VA, PA, and WV are being closely monitored.
Project assessments will continue throughout the weekend.   (FEMA HQ, FEMA Regions I, II, III, IV)

FEMA Operations Order #06-2006
Tropical Depression Ernesto
Saturday, September 2, 2006
Situation Assessment:
The remnants of TD Ernesto are expected to completely dissipate within the next 48 hours.

Operations:
All Task Forces will be taken off advisory status by the National US&R Program Office and return to normal rotations.  Demobilizing Task Forces will complete their approved demobilization plans.
All NDMS teams will be taken off alert status by the NDMS Program Office and returned to normal status and rotations.  Demobilizing teams will complete their approved demobilization plans.
FIRST-Chicago will demobilize upon completion of their assigned mission with USCG.
FIRST-Atlanta will demobilize upon release by Region III.
The NRCC returned to a modified Level 3 operation effective 7:00 pm (1900) EDT, Saturday, September 2, 2006.  The NRCC will be composed of the following planning and operational elements and will maintain the capability to initiate response planning in advance of surge staffing to support response operations:
NRCC Watch
Planning Section Chief and selected Long-Term DAEs
Operations Planning Unit Day and Night Shift with remaining FEMA and DOD OPU staff on two-hour recall.
NRCC Manager/Operations Chief
All NRCC management (Section and Branch Chiefs) on two-hour recall.  (FEMA HQ)

Hawaii Fire

As of September 2, 2006 3:00 pm EDT, the Ma'alaea Fire has grown to 3,423 acres and moves with two heads in the directions of Wailuku and Lahaina.

Two of three main power lines serving Lahaina, Kaanapali and the western part of Maui have burned. If the third burns power may be lost; however, there is confidence that it will be saved.

There are 80 firefighters, 3 Caterpillars, 5 tankers, and 9 helicopters including CH-47 Chinooks and a CH-53 Chinook.

No structures are reported lost.

The Honoapilani Highway has reopened.

Although no containment is reported the homes, condominiums, and businesses in Ma'alaea are out of danger. Winds are 20 mph with gusts to 45 mph.

Local firefighters are fully committed. State personnel and aircraft are assisting.
FMAG-2673-HI was approved September 2, 2006 at 4:40 am EDT.  (FEMA Region IX)

Tropical Activity

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:
No tropical activity.

Central and Eastern Pacific
Tropical Storm  John is on the west side of a mid/upper-level ridge centered over northern Mexico with water vapor imagery showing the ridge moving northward into the southwestern United States. 

Middle to upper-level moisture from John is likely to enhance rainfall in the Desert Southwest monsoon areas of the U.S.

Western Pacific
There are no threats to U.S. Territories or Possessions.   (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center).

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 5
Initial attack activity was light nationally with 136 new fires reported. Two new large fires were reported, one each in Colorado and Oregon.

Firefighters are making good progress on the large fires in Oregon, with containment of four large fires expected today.
Two MAFFS C-130 aircraft and support personnel from the 153 rd Airlift Wing ANG, Cheyenne, Wyoming, and the 302nd Airlift Wing ANG, Peterson Air Force Base, Colorado, are deployed to Klamath Falls, Oregon. Two MAFFS C-130 aircraft and support personnel from the 146th Airlift Wing ANG, Channel Islands, California are deployed to Boise, Idaho. The U.S. Army Task Force Blaze is assigned to the Tripod Complex in Washington.

New Zealand and Australia are providing 92 fire specialists and managers to assist with suppression operations. Canada is providing ten 20-person crews and 59 fire specialists and managers.

It will be warmer and drier over much of the West for the next few days with thunderstorms expected over portions of Southern California and the southern Great Basin.  Dry thunderstorms are possible over eastern portions of Oregon and Washington, Idaho and western Montana on Sunday and Monday. In addition to the dry thunderstorm threat, the other main concern is the hot, dry and unstable conditions (high Haines Index) west of the Cascades Saturday which will shift east of the Cascades Sunday and Monday.  (National Interagency Fire Center, National Infrastructure Coordination Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)