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National Situation Update: Saturday, September 2, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Commercial Aviation ORANGE

National Weather Forecast

Northeast:  The wet remains of Tropical Depression Ernesto head northward through Pennsylvania and then Upstate New York and parts of western and southern New England this weekend. Easterly winds will be strong and gusty, especially around New York City and adjacent parts of northern New Jersey and Long Island where gusts could reach 45 mph.

Heavy rainfall and flash flooding during the first half of the weekend will head northward from Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania and New Jersey toward New York and southernmost New England while ending south to north across the Virginias.

Additional rainfall today will be in the 1-to-3-inch range. Rainfall totals from Ernesto will steadily lessen northward as tropical moisture fights the drier air initially in place.

Other than a few spots on the east slopes of the Appalachians, rainfall totals across northern Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, central and eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey will be in the 2-to-5-inch range.

By tomorrow, the heaviest rain may arc from Watertown, N. Y., through the Hudson Valley and Berkshires, to New York City and Long Island where some spots may pick up another inch or two.

South:  Thunderstorms will accompany a cold front into Texas, causing locally heavy rainfall and the potential for localized flooding, especially over southwest Texas and including El Paso.

Midwest:  Showers are expected around the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms will develop in the Dakotas and Nebraska today and migrate into the mid-Mississippi Valley by Labor Day.

West:  Expect thunderstorms over Arizona and New Mexico over the next 3 days, especially the southern sections. Locally heavy rain could cause flash flooding.

Some forecast models indicate that moisture from Hurricane John could infiltrate southeast California and southern Arizona early next week, further enhancing thunderstorm development.  (NWS, Media Sources)

Tropical Storm Ernesto

Region 1

Projected storm impact to be minimal

Regional States not activated for the weekend

Region 2

RRCC

Currently at Level 2 – monitoring

Coordinated activities with JFO that is currently operational from previous event

Identified PDA staffing if needed

Region 3

Region 3 - RRCC

Level II (7 a.m. – 7 p.m.), with minimal overnight staffing

Coordinated with RVII for additional ERT-A teams

Reviewing status of response assets in Region

Requesting all States assess power needs due to power outages created by Tropical Depression Ernesto

District of Columbia

District of Columbia has declared a State of Emergency

Approximately 1,770 without power

Amtrack has suspended services south of the District

Virginia

Governor has declared State of Emergency

Currently 272,000 customers without power and that number is rising rapidly

Wireless communication problems reported in northern Virginia

Numerous road closures including portions of four interstates, four primary roads and 36 secondary roads

82 individuals sheltered in Hampton Roads

Mary Immaculate Hospital in Newpoer News is without power but there is no movement of patients at this time

225 people evacuated from Battery Park in Richmond, but not sheltered

USGS issued landslide hazard alert for mountainous regions

Joint PDAs to begin September 4

Maryland

Maryland Emergency Management Agency moved to Level II and activated EOC at 7:00 am EDT, September 1, 2006

One road closure in Worcester County

Delaware

EOC is operational with ESF capability

Pennsylvania

Partial activation of EOC

National Guard on alert

Region 4

RRCC

Will reduce to a Level 3 at midnight September 1, 2006 and will operate from 7:00 am to 7:00 pm EDT on September 2, 2006.

Conducting a Hot Wash with ESFs, and then with Senior Management staff

South Carolina

Minimum damage has been reported with some trees down.

County EOC are in the process of deactivation

North Carolina

Level 2 - Full

1 known storm related fatality

Nineteen school systems closed

Demobilized National Guard assets

Will conduct preliminary PDA assessments beginning next week

22,000 customers reported without power;  major outages remain in Wake, Durham, and Edgecombe Counties.

1 Salvation Army shelter open in Goldsboro, NC with population of 9

18 shelters open with population of 292

Ports Closed:  Wilmington and Moorehead City, NC

Restricted Port – Little River

Road closures:  Brunswick County - SR1172, SR 1413, Hwy 74/76, US 17 and several local roads; Hanover County – SR 1272; Pender County – US 17

Sunset Beach Bridge (SR 1172) Brunswick County is closed

Amtrak cancelled.  No alternate transportation provided

Region IX ERT-A demobilized

Transportation/NC

Over 100 roads in coastal NC are flooded including a small section of I-40 (near MM 373) between Wilmington and I-95

Roads are closed in: Brunswick, Duplin, Onslow, Jones, Lenoir, New Hanover, Bertie, Camden, Edgecombe, Gates, Green and Martin counties

Florida

Level 2 – Partial

1 reported storm related fatality

1 Shelter open in Glade City, FL with population of 10

Coast Guard Center

Continuing to close, assess, and open ports as storm progresses

Post storm surveys will begin today, September 1

National Guard

Available for power generation and communication assistance to affected States

US Corps of Engineers (USACE)

In contact with Virginia, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and District of Columbia

Requested sandbags sent Virginia

NORTHCOM

Released teams staged at Ft. Rucker and Maxwell.

Ready to assist Region 3

FEMA Response

Working with Regions 3 and 4 to determine the need of NDMS and US&R teams staged in Atlanta, GA

A Mobile Disaster Recovery Center (MDRC) with Emergency Management Response Intake Center capability is staged in Virginia.  It is NOT being utilized for registrations (no declarations);  it will be testing its capability for field  registrations;  ONLY A TEST   (FEMA HQ, FEMA Regions I, II, III, IV)

Hawaii Wildfire

September 1, 2006 3:00 pm EDT

A 2,000 acre wildland fire on the island of Maui in Hawaii is threatening the town of Ma'alaea with a population of about 8,000.  Immediately threatened are 12 homes, 17 businesses, a boat ramp and a windfarm which services approximately 10% of the island population.  An estimated 150 residents, employees and visitors have evacuated the area.  The fire has closed the Honoapilani Highway which is the only access for Lahaina, Kaanapali and the rest of the western half of the island to the airport and Waiikulu, the county seat.  Winds are helping to keep the fire from approaching a seven building 150 unit condominiums.

The fire is exhibiting erratic behavior, torching and crowning in heavy grass and shrubs. Winds are 7-10 miles per hour with gusts to 16 mph.  Temperature is 88 with humidity 57%.  There county and state are responding to this fire with 50 local and 9 state fire fighters, 3 engine companies, 4 tankers, 4 helicopters, and a National Guard CH-47 Chinook helicopter.
The Region IX Fire Duty Liaison is working with the State and monitoring the incident.  (FEMA Region IX, FEMA Operations Center)

Tropical Activity

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:
At 11:00 pm EDT Friday the center of the remnant of Tropical Depression Ernesto was located 10 miles south of West Point, Virginia.

Ernesto has slowed its forward motion over the last several hours and has now become nearly stationary. A general northward motion is expected over the next 24 hours. Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are possible across the northern Mid-Atlantic States and the central Appalachians.

Maximum sustained winds are 40 mph with higher gusts. Minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

Warnings and Watches:
Flood warnings are in effect for portions of eastern North Carolina, eastern Virginia, and central Pennsylvania.
Coastal flood warnings are in effect for portions of eastern Virginia, the District of Columbia, southern and eastern Maryland, and Delaware.
Flash flood watches are in effect for portions of Virginia, eastern West Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and New York.
High wind warnings are in effect for portions of Delaware and New Jersey. Wind advisories are in effect for portions of Delaware, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Vermont.

Central and Eastern Pacific
At 5:00 am EDT the center of Hurricane John was located very near LaPaz, Mexico. This is about 689 miles south-southeast of the U. S./Mexico border.  John remains a small Category Two Hurricane with sustained winds near 100 mph and higher gusts.  John is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. 

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles. Some weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

As Hurricane John comes ashore in Mexico and lessens to a Tropical Depression over land, the remnants of the Tropical Depression are expected to bring areas of heavy rain to the area of extreme western Texas over the next 2-3 days.  Amounts of 2-3" will be common in West Texas and extreme southern New Mexico and Arizona. The possibility of flash flooding in this area will be high.

Western Pacific
No significant activity.   (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center).

Earthquake Activity

A 6.0 magnitude earthquake occurred in the Fox Island, of the Aleutian Island, Alaska on September 1, 2006 at 8:04 am EDT.  There was no damage reported and no Tsunami was generated.  (United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 5
Initial attack activity was light nationally with 142 new fires reported. 

Two new large fires were reported, one each in the Eastern Great Basin and Northern Rockies Areas.
Six large fires were contained, two each in the Northwest, Eastern Great Basin and Northern Rockies Areas.

Very high to extreme fire indices were reported in California, Idaho, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Dakota, Oregon, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming.

Red Flag Warning:
For the mountains of Ventura and Los Angles Counties experiencing very low relative humidity.

Major Evacuations/Structures Threatened:
There are currently 44 large fires reported on the Situation Report, of these 16 are still posing a significant threat to structures and other improvements.  The remaining fires have either mitigated the structure threat or are in remote areas.   (National Interagency Fire Center, National Infrastructure Coordination Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-1658-DR-TX was amended, effective August 25, 2006 closing the incident period as of this date.

FEMA-1658-DR-TX was amended, effective September 1, 2006 adding all counties in the State of Texas as eligible to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program. (FEMA HQ)