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National Situation Update: Friday, September 1, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:
At 05:00 am EDT Friday the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located inland about 20 miles south-southwest of Kinston, North Carolina and about 150 miles southwest of Norfolk, Virginia.

Ernesto is moving toward the north near 15 mph. A turn toward the north and a decrease in forward speed are expected during the next 24 hours.  This motion should bring the center farther inland over eastern North Carolina this morning and over eastern Virginia later today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph, with higher gusts.  Continued weakening is forecast as the Ernesto moves farther inland.
 
Coastal storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels is possible along the coast of North Carolina in areas of onshore flow within the warning area. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected over the Mid-Atlantic States, including the central Appalachians, through Sunday, with isolated maximum storm totals of up to 12 inches possible. Additional rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is possible over eastern North Carolina through Friday afternoon.  These rainfall amounts could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Isolated tornadoes are possible over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia through this morning.

Central and Eastern Pacific
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories for Mexico on dangerous category three Hurricane John, centered about 110 miles southeast of the southern tip of Baja California.

Western Pacific
There are no threats to U.S. Territories or interests, and no new tropical storm formation is expected through Thursday. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center).

Tropical Storm Ernesto

Region III

• Virginia
  • Governor declared a State of Emergency.
  • Virginia Department of Emergency Management (VDEM) augmented the Virginia Emergency Operations Center (VEOC) with an additional Virginia Emergency Response Team (VERT) Thursday
  • VDEM standing by to coordinate with FEMA on identification and establishment of Mobilization Center and Staging Area for commodities.
• West Virginia
  • The Governor is anticipating an emergency in 13 Counties of the Panhandle Friday.
  • The EOC is scheduled to stand up at 8: 00 am. EDT Friday, September 1, 2006
  • Three swift water teams are on alert.
  • Air National Guard SAR Assets are on alert.
  • The American Red Cross is establishing two shelters in the potentially affected counties in the Panhandle.
• Pennsylvania
  • Confirmation of F1 tornado in Chester County on August 28, with localized damage and no Federal assistance requested
  • National Guard is on alert status in Pennsylvania
  • Swift water rescue teams staged Pennsylvania.
  • Red Cross Shelter at the Polk Center in Venango County, Pennsylvania is closed; residents have been allowed to return home. Stabilization of Piffer Dam will continue. There are no unmet needs.
• Maryland
  • Maryland Emergency Management Agency (MEMA) will operate at level 2 beginning 7:00 am. EDT, September 1.
  • Washington D. C. declared a state of emergency on Thursday, August 31, 2006.
  • ERT-A Teams are in place in Virginia and Pennsylvania.
  • Six Mobile Disaster Recovery Centers (MDRCs) on hold for Virginia.
  • A major concern of Washington, DC area is the Lake Needwood Dam. Lake Needwood Dam was an “at risk” dam during a June Flooding event. Repairs were made, but the integrity of the dam is still a concern.
  • A Federal Operations Staging Area (FOSA) is established at Fort AP Hill, VA.
  • State Liaison Officers (SLO) are in Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, and Washington, D.C.

Region IV

• Georgia
  • No significant impact at this time.
• South Carolina
  • Eight shelters are open
  • Hydrological teams assessing river levels – currently they are low
  • Water rescue teams are on standby
  • Transportation is surveying roads that have had problems in the past.
• North Carolina
  • Governor issued a State of Emergency
  • Brunswick County has issued a voluntary evacuation order
  • Shelters are opening in 3 counties
  • Road closures are expected
  • 150 National Guard are on duty
  • No shortages identified (FEMA 1800 Ernesto VTC)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity. (FEMA HQ)

320 Fire near Rifle, CO

The Rifle Fire is in Garfield County, CO.  Presently 800 to 1000 acres have burned.  Fifty residences have been evacuated in a subdivision southwest of Rifle.  More houses will be affected depending on the weather, currently 5-10 mph winds, temperature of 60-80 degrees and 35 % humidity. Several natural gas wells are threatened and 2 have burned.  Power lines have been damaged and smoke has affected driving conditions on I-70 north of the fire.   Currently, the fire affects 20% federal land and 80% private land.  Two single-engine tankers and one helicopter have assisted with the fire.  A Type 2 Management Team has been requested. (Denver MERS Opertions Center)

FEMA Region Activity

The JFO for FEMA-3267-EM-Missouri has been approved for closure on or about September, 20, 2006.

The JFO for FEMA-1646-DR-California closed as of August 31, 2006. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No significant events.  (United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 5

• Initial attack activity was light nationally with 108 new fires reported.
• Eight new large fires were reported, three each in the Northwest, Northern Rockies Areas, and two in the eastern Great Basin Area.
• Four large fires were contained, one each in the Eastern Great Basin, Northern Rockies, Rocky Mountain and Southern Areas.
• Very high to extreme fire indices were reported in California, Idaho, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Dakota, Oregon, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming.

Red Flag Warning:

• For the Southern California Mountains experiencing very low relative humidity.

Major Evacuations/Structures Threatened:

• There are currently 48 large fires reported on the Situation Report, of these 17 are still posing a significant threat to structures and other improvements.
• The remaining fires have either mitigated the structure threat or are in remote areas. (National Interagency Fire Center, National Infrastructure Coordination Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)