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National Situation Update: Monday, August 21, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Hot Weather With Red Flag Warnings Forecast for the West

West:
Isolated dry lightning storms could ignite wildfires in portions of the Great Basin. Red Flag Warnings have been issued for Monday for large portions of Washington, Oregon, and western Idaho.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue in New Mexico and perhaps reaching into parts of Colorado and eastern Arizona on Monday.

Afternoon readings will range from the 60s in the higher Rockies and along some Pacific beaches to over 110 in southeastern Colorado and southwestern Arizona to 100 degrees in parts of southeastern Washington.

Midwest:
Dry weather, with only a few exceptions, will dominate the Midwest and Plains on Monday. Some late-day storms (isolated severe) could erupt over upper Michigan and parts of Wisconsin.

Locally heavy downpours may strike portions of Kansas. Isolated showers might occur in portions of Missouri.

Highs are expected to be mostly in the 80s. Readings in the 70s will prevail near the Canadian border, and isolated 90s could make a showing in parts of the Plains.

South:
Except for much of Texas and parts of Louisiana, scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected on Monday. Some of the heavier storms will be in portions of Oklahoma and the Southeast.

High temperatures across the region are forecast to range from the upper 70s at a few spots in the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles to over 100 in portions of central and eastern Texas. Most of the Deep South will experience temperatures in the 90s.

Northeast
Except for a few showers over portions of northern New England on Monday, the Northeast will experience nice weather. High temperatures are expected to be in the 70s and 80s, north to south.   (NWS, Media Sources)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:
A Tropical Wave has emerged off the west coast of Africa. The system is becoming organized and additional development is possible during the next few days as the wave moves westward at about 15 mph. Elsewhere tropical storm formation is not expected through Tuesday.

Eastern Pacific:
At 11:00 pm EDT August 20, Tropical Storm Hector (09E) was located near 20.9N 134.6W or about 1,330 miles east of the Hawaiian Islands where the system continues to deteriorate. Hector is forecast to dissipate during the next 24 hours.

At 8:00 pm EDT August 20, Hurricane Ioke (formerly TS 01C) was located at 11.5 N 163.8 W or about 800 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii. The storm on its current track will travel near Johnston and Midway Islands.

A broad low pressure area moving west-northwestward is centered about 425 miles south-southwest of Acapulco Mexico. This system continues to show signs of organization and could develop into a tropical depression during the next 12-24 hours. Elsewhere tropical storm formation is not expected through Tuesday.

Western Pacific:
No tropical storm warnings. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center).

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments (PDA)

Alaska:  Fire August 2-3, 2006.  Individual Assistance and Public Assistance PDAs for the community of Hooper Bay began on August 21, 2006.

Idaho:  Levee Impacts May 17-June 28, 2006. Public Assistance PDAs for an undetermined number of counties are scheduled to begin on August 23, 2006.

New Mexico:  Flash Flood July 31, 2006, and continuing.  Individual Assistance PDA for Dona Ana County began on August 18, 2006, and Public Assistance PDAs for 15 counties began on August 21, 2006. (FEMA Region VI and X)

Tropical Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No significant activity during the last 24 hours. (United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 5 (on a scale of 1 to 5).

August 20, 2006 wildfire activity was light nationally with 173 new fires reported.

Four new large fires were reported, two in the Northwest Area, and one each in the Northern Rockies and Southern Areas.

Three large fires were contained, one each in the Northern Rockies, Western Great Basin and Southern Areas.  

Very high to extreme fire indices were reported in Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Washington and Wyoming.

Two C-130 aircraft from the Wyoming ANG remain deployed to Oregon and two C-130 aircraft from the Califormia ANG remain deployed to Idaho to provide wildfire fighting support.

The U.S. Army Task Force Blaze (550 soldiers) is assigned to the Tripod Complex wildfire in Washington.(National Fire Information Center, media sources)

Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-1654-DE will close on August 22, 2006.
FEMA-1645-ND will close on August 25, 2006.   (FEMA HQ)