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National Situation Update: Wednesday, August 9, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Forecast

West: Much of the West will be dry except for scattered thunderstorms across Colorado, Arizona and New Mexico with isolated thunderstorms in the northern Rockies. Temperatures will be above average, up to 110 in the lower Colorado Valley. The Central Valley of California and the Los Angeles Basin will reach the 90s.

Midwest: A stationary front extending from Nebraska to a cold front in the Carolinas will produce showers and thunderstorms in the upper Mississippi Valley, Missouri and Kentucky. Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast for the Dakotas, Nebraska and Iowa. High temperatures will be over 100 in Kansas, northwest Nebraska and parts of western Missouri.

South: Scattered thunderstorms are forecast during afternoon hours. Much of the Southeast will see highs in the 90s. West of the Mississippi River some areas will exceed 100.

Northeast: High pressure will produce fair weather over most of the region today with only a few scattered thunderstorms. (NWS, Media Sources)

NOAA Continues To Predict Above-Normal Hurricane Season

With the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season upon us, experts from NOAA are reiterating their prediction for an above-normal number of storms. NOAA scientists warn this year's relatively quiet start is not an indication of what the remainder of the season has in store.

For the entire 2006 season, which ends November 30, NOAA is projecting a total of 12 to 15 named storms of which seven to nine will intensify to hurricanes, including three or four becoming major hurricanes - rated at Category 3 or higher. This forecast is slightly lower than the outlook issued in May, but remains above the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

According to Gerry Bell, Ph.D., NOAA's lead seasonal hurricane forecaster, the major climate factors expected to influence this year's activity are the ongoing multi-decadal signal, which produces wind and atmospheric pressure patterns favorable for hurricane formation, along with ongoing warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures. NOAA attributes these same factors to the current active Atlantic hurricane era that began in 1995. Bell noted that conditions were ripe last year for early season storm development. "La Niña-like convection in the central equatorial Pacific during June and July of 2005 contributed to the development of numerous early-season storms," he said. "Conditions this year reflect a more typical active season, with peak activity expected during August-October."

NOAA's seasonal outlook, however, does not specify where and when tropical storms and hurricanes could strike. "Science has not evolved enough to accurately predict on seasonal timescales when and where these storms will likely make landfall," said Bell. "Exactly when and where landfall occurs is strongly controlled by the weather patterns in place as the storms approach land. These weather patterns generally cannot be predicted more than several days in advance."

"As we approach the peak of the hurricane season, our message remains the same, be informed and be prepared," said Max Mayfield, director of the NOAA National Hurricane Center. "Preventing the loss of life and minimizing property damage from hurricanes are responsibilities shared by all. Remember, one hurricane hitting your neighborhood is enough to make it a bad season." (Excerpt from  http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2678.htm )

Tropical Activity

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea: A low pressure center about 700 miles east of the Windward Islands is moving west at 12-18 mph. This low center is weakening and its threat to develop into a tropical cyclone during the next 36 hours is becoming less likely with time.

Eastern Pacific: No significant activity.

Western Pacific: There are three tropical systems in the Western Pacific; Typhoon 08W (Saomai), Tropical Storm 09W (Maria) and Tropical Storm 10W (Bopha). They pose no threat to U.S. territories. The final warning has been issued on TS 09W. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

The most significant earthquake during the last 24 hours was a magnitude 3.3 (Minor) earthquake near Mount St. Helens in Washington at 11:01 EDT August, 8, 2006. (United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

NATIONAL PREPAREDNESS LEVEL – 5

Fire activity was heavy with 390 new fires reported. Ten new large fires were reported: one each in Utah, Oregon, and Texas; four in Idaho; and three in Nevada.

Six large fires were contained: one each in South Dakota, California, Alabama, and Oklahoma; and two in Idaho.

There were 40 active large fires reported as of Tuesday, August 8.  Involvement from all active fires is 438,962 acres.

Critical fire weather areas have been designated by NWS Storm Prediction Center for much of Montana and portions of Idaho today.

Threatened Structures in California:

• Orleans Complex: 6,039 acres at 20 percent contained. The complex, comprised of the Somes, Crawford, Buck, and Hancock fires, is four miles southwest of Oreans. Numerous structures, significant cultural and spiritual sites, and the municipal watershed for the community of Orleans remain threatened.
• Uncles Complex: 10,250 acres at 20 percent contained. Located 18 miles northeast of Orleans. Residences and outbuildings remain threatened, and structure protection is in place.
• Bar Complex: 10,650 acres at 25 percent contained. Located northwest of Weaverville. Residences, outbuildings, power lines, municipal watersheds and wildlife habitat remain threatened.

Threatened Structures in Idaho:

• Owinza: 10,000 acres at zero percent contained. The fire is located five miles northeast of Detriecht.
• Stone 2: 31,500 acres at 20 percent contained. This fire is burning five miles southwest of Holbrook.  Structures and power lines are currently threatened.

Threatened Structures in Nevada:

• Threatened Structures in Washington:
• Tripod Complex: 68,312 acres at 10 percent contained. It is located seven miles northeast of Winthrup. Residences and structures are threatened.

Threatened Structures in Wyoming:

• Horse Creek 2: 4,000 acres at zero percent contained. The fire is located 35 miles north of Gillette. Residences and structures are threatened.  (National Interagency Fire Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)