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National Situation Update: Monday, July 31, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Extreme Heat Moves Toward the Eastern U.S.

Northeast: The heat will continue to build in the Northeast on Monday.  Highs are expected to range from the 70s in much of northern New England and the Adirondacks to the 90s from New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania southward. An excessive heat warning is posted for metro Philadelphia. Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the day from New York State southward.  Severe storms are possible Monday evening and night in New York and western New England.

Midwest: High heat will continue in the Plains and Upper Midwest as temperatures will exceed 100 from southeastern South Dakota southward, and also in parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin. Highs in the 90s will prevail almost everywhere else with exception of North Dakota and far western South Dakota which may cool into the 80s.  Excessive heat warnings remain posted for Chicago, St. Louis and Kansas City. There will be a chance for scattered thunderstorms over eastern North Dakota, northeastern South Dakota and northern Minnesota.

South: Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will speckle parts of the South on Monday including: southeastern Texas, Florida and the Deep South. Hot and humid conditions will persist almost everywhere with highs ranging from the 80s near portions of the Gulf Coast to over 100 in Oklahoma and Texas. Most locations will reach temperatures into the 90s.

West: The cooling trend will continue in the West with most of California's Central Valley failing to top 90. Scattered Monday afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be most prominent in Colorado, Arizona and New Mexico; isolated storms could form in the Great Basin. High temperatures will range from the 50s in Yellowstone to over 100 in Death Valley and areas near the lower Colorado River Valley. Most of the lower elevations in the Pacific Northwest will be in the 70s and 80s.   (NWS, Media Sources)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea: A tropical wave is located about 425 miles east of the Windward Islands moving west-northwestward at 15-20 mph. This system does not appear to be organizing into a tropical depression.

A large area of showers and thunderstorms continues over the central to western Caribbean Sea, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.  Conditions are not conducive for tropical cyclone formation, however the potential for flash flooding will affect portions of Hispanola and Jamaica over the next day or so.

Tropical storm formation is not expected through Monday, July 31.

Eastern Pacific: Both Daniel and Emilia lost all tropical characteristics Friday, so there are no tropical systems in the Eastern Pacific at the current time. An area of low pressure, however, centered about 750 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Mexico will need to be watched for potential development over the next couple of days. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are accompanying this low pressure center, and a tropical depression could form later tonight or tomorrow as the system moves westward at 10-15 mph.

An area of disturbed weather located about 400 miles south-southwest of Acapulco Mexico remains poorly organized. Further development, if any, should be slow to occur as the system moves westward at 10-15 mph.

Tropical storm formation is not expected in the Eastern Pacific through Monday, July 31.

Western Pacific: There is no significant activity in the region. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Public Assistance PDAs for four counties in Colorado are scheduled to begin August 1, 2006.  (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

The National Preparedness Level continues at Level 5 (the highest level).  Preparedness Level 5 means that multiple geographic areas are experiencing major incidents.

Wildland fire activity was light nationally with 151 new fires reported. Twelve new large fires were reported: one each in Arizona, Colorado, Oklahoma, Idaho, Nebraska, North Dakota, Montana, and Utah; and two each in South Dakota and California.

Five large fires were contained: one each in South Dakota, Nevada, and Oregon; and two in California.

Dry and windy conditions are expected for portions of northern California, the Great Basin, Northwest, and Montana. Isolated, dry thunderstorms are predicted further south. Dry and windy conditions will continue in the Plains. (National Interagency Fire Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Thursday, 04-Jun-2009 16:21:53 EDT