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National Situation Update: Saturday, July 29, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Heat Wave Forecast for Midwest – West to Get Some Relief

West:  The region will see some relief from the extreme hot and dry weather on Saturday as a low pressure system will bring cooler temperatures (60s-70s) to much of the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Thunderstorms are forecast for several parts of the Southwest which will provide some relief from the recent hot and dry weather.

Midwest:  The Midwest will again see extreme heat and high humidity on Saturday with temperatures above 100 degrees in the Dakotas, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Highs throughout the region will hover in the 90s. Scattered thunderstorms are possible in the area from northern Minnesota to Michigan.

Northeast:  Other than a few isolated thunderstorms near the Great Lakes, the Northeast will experience hot and sunny weather on Saturday. Highs will be in the 80s-90s for the area from New England to the Mid-Atlantic.

South:  Increased risk of thunderstorms on a line from Tennessee to the Carolinas and across the Florida peninsula on Saturday. High temperatures will be in the 90s and 100s throughout the region.  (NWS, Media Sources)

Illinois/Missouri Power Restoration from July 19-21 Storms

As of 28 July 2006 at 1:30 pm EDT, a total of 7,300 (down from 44,800) remained without power.  The Illinois outages are: 465 (down from 4,825); Missouri are: 6,835 (down from 39,975); and the St Louis metro area outages are: 6,800 (down from 39,166).  (NICC)

Ohio Valley Flooding

Very heavy rainfall occurred across the northern watersheds of the Ohio Valley, causing widespread flash flooding on Friday July 28. Both the Chagrin and Grand Rivers exceeded flood stage by several feet, with record flooding reported at Painesville Ohio. Significant river levels also occurred on portions of the Maumee watershed. Cuyahoga, Lake, Geneva, and Ashtabula Counties in Ohio and Crawford County in Pennsylvania were affected.

Local authorities used the reverse 9-1-1 function to evacuate residents of the City of Eastlake Ohio as early as Thursday night, and Painesville was evacuated in the early hours of Friday. Hundreds of homes have been affected by the flooding. Lake County declared a State of Emergency to facilitate the use of State of Ohio water rescue equipment. The County established 3 incident command posts, and the Red Cross set up 5 shelters that sheltered 250-300 residents. Most rivers and streams receded Friday afternoon except along the Grand River, which is expected to drop below flood stage by Sunday morning.  (NOAA National Weather Service, Ohio River Forecast Center, DHS)

Tropical Activity

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea: A weak low pressure area in conjunction with a tropical wave. is located about 1,275 miles east-southeast of the southern Windward Islands.  A tropical depression could form over the next day or two as the system moves westward at about 20 mph.

Shower activity associated with two tropical waves over the Caribbean Sea has diminished.  Conditions are not conducive for tropical cyclone formation from either system.

Tropical storm formation is not expected through Sunday July 30.

Eastern Pacific: An area of low pressure with scattered showers is centered about 600 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo Mexico. Slow development of this system is possible over the next couple of days. Tropical storm formation is not expected through Saturday July 29.

Western Pacific: There is no activity in this region. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Public Assistance PDAs for four counties in Colorado are scheduled to begin August 1, 2006.  (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

The National Preparedness Level was upgraded to Level 5 (the highest level) at approximately 11:30 a.m. EDT on July 28, 2006.  Preparedness Level 5 means that multiple geographic areas are experiencing major incidents.

From 1996 to the present, Preparedness Level 5 has been reached five times:  (September 1, 1996; July 28, 2000; August 16, 2001; June 21, 2002; and July 24, 2003).

At Preparedness Level 5, the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) reassesses national resource needs daily and reallocates resources to those fires that are the highest priority. 

Wildfire activity was moderate with 212 new fires reported throughout the nation. Twelve new large fires were reported: one each in South Dakota, Texas, Nebraska, Oregon, Montana, Utah, and Washington; three in California and two in Nevada.

Fifteen large fires were contained: one each in Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Oregon, Montana, and Utah; two each in California and Texas, and five in Nevada.

A dry west to northwest flow will prevail over the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, and the northern half of the Great Basin. A monsoon moisture will continue over the western states creating scattered thunderstorms.

As of July 28, 2006, the U.S. Forest Service has reported 69,966 wildland fires that have burned 5,302,848 acres. The 10 year average for the same date is 50,062 fires reported that burned 2,954,760 acres.    (National Interagency Fire Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)