National Situation Update: Friday, July 28, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Forecast

Midwest: The heat across the West recently will slide eastward into the Plains. Look for high temperatures across the Midwest in the lower 90s to lower 100s today. An excessive heat warning is in effect for the Twin Cities through the weekend as the mercury climbs up to around 100 degrees. Scattered thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon and tonight from eastern North Dakota southeast to western Wisconsin with other storms likely in the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

Northeast: A cold front will trigger thunderstorms across the Northeast and by late afternoon, some of these thunderstorms may become severe with large hail and gusty winds as they move toward the major East Coast cities. The high temperatures will be well into the 80s and lower 90s.

South: Thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon, will be scattered across parts of the Southeast. Scattered thunderstorms are also likely across the Florida Peninsula. A few cities in Texas will see the mercury move close to 100 degrees.

West: The Desert Southwest will see temperatures lower today but humidity levels remain extremely high. The heat will relax somewhat across California, as well. Still, high temperatures should easily reach the middle 90s to near 105 degrees through the weekend in the valleys. (NWS, Media Sources)

Western U.S. Excessive Heat Episode – Update

Event: A prolonged period of intense heat has affected the Western U.S. for almost three weeks. Temperature records have been broken in every state of the NWS Western Region. The heat has caused power outages and heat related illness and death.

Impacts: Media reports indicate the number of deaths tied directly to California's two-week plus heat wave reached 95 today, according to the California governor's Office of Emergency Services.

The office said 53 people were confirmed dead by local coroners as a result of the stifling heat, which spiked into the triple digits at times and remains in the high 90's . The rest were presumed to have died as a result of the heat.

The Governor ordered the Department of Health Services to contact every nursing home and residential care facility to verify that they are protecting the health and safety of their residents. They will also be asked if they have an evacuation plan and know what to do in an emergency. The governor also directed the Department of Social Services to order county welfare directors and public health officers to conduct on-site checks of people living in single-room occupancy hotels. Statewide, about 375,000 low-income seniors and people with disabilities receive help from the department's In-Home Supportive Services, the governor's office said.

The total number of deaths will probably never be known, but a few coroner reports have become available. Best estimates at the present are:

29 fatalities in Sacramento, California Weather Forecast Office's (WFO) County Warning Area (CWA)
32 fatalities in WFO Hanford, California's CWA
4 fatalities in WFO Monterey, California's CWA
12 fatalities in WFO San Diego, California's CWA
3 fatalities in WFO Tucson, Arizona's CWA
8 fatalities in WFO Phoenix, Arizona's CWA

There has been a large impact on agriculture. Of particular concern has been the number of deaths of livestock (cattle and poultry). There are unconfirmed media reports of "thousands" of livestock killed in the West. Heath officials are concerned about decomposing livestock and inability to render the carcasses.

A wind-driven wildfire threatened power transmission lines near the Oregon-California line today, The A.P. said, but California officials said they thought that they could reroute power transmissions if the lines were damaged.

NOAA National Weather Service Operations: WFOs have been advertising the excessive heat for several weeks via warnings, advisories and/or statements. Since Monday morning, over 80 heat related products were issued by WFOs in the NWS Western Region.

The national and local media coverage has been and continues to be high. (NOAA)

FEMA Regional Activity

Illinois Severe Storms

State Declaration of Emergency is in effect for the Counties of Madison, St. Clair, Clinton and Jefferson as a result of Severe Storms and resulting power outages occurring over the course of July 19-21. Washington County has been added to the list of declared counties. The IEMA reports that client volume at assistance centers remains "strong". Approx. 3000 utility customers are without power, a significant reduction from IR#3 report figures. The Region received late yesterday, a request for a joint (State and Federal) damage assessment from the state

State/Local Response:
Red Cross continues fixed and mobile feeding in the affected areas. There is significant reduction in requests for feeding as power is back on in most areas. Feeding will cease on a staggered basis according to need beginning tomorrow. The Red Cross is also providing financial assistance to those with structural damage to dwellings, as well as providing mental health counseling in affected communities.

A State Processing Center opened in Ashley (newly declared Washington County) yesterday.

FEMA Region V conducted Federal PDA team briefings yesterday. Joint assessments began July 27, 2006. (FEMA Region V)

St. Louis Area Restoration From Storms of July 19 And 21, 2006
Restoration efforts to the electrical infrastructure continue in the St. Louis bi-state metropolitan area damaged from severe thunderstorms on July 19 and July 21, 2006. Ameren Corporation, the primary provider of electricity in the St. Louis area, is being supported by utility repair crews from 11 states.

Electricity: As of 27 July 2006 at 1:00 pm EDT, a total of 44,800 remained without power. The Illinois outages are: 4,825; Missouri are: 39,975; and the St Louis metro area outages are: 39,166. More storms are predicted to hit the area Friday, July 28, 2006.

Oil and Gas: Open source reports the Conoco-Phillips Wood River (IL) refinery will not be producing gasoline until sometime next week. Crews at the site are working around the clock to get the refinery back on line. The company advised the shutdown had no known community impacts. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced Tuesday, July 25, 2006 it will waive federal clean fuel requirements in Madison, Monroe and St. Clair counties to avoid a fuel shortage in the wake of storms that impacted the St. Louis region. (NICC)

UT Wildfires

REILLY COMPLEX: This 5,000 acre lightning-caused complex of fires, comprised of the previously reported Reilly fire (1,500 acres) and the Red Hill fire (3,500 acres), started on July 24, 2006 and is burning in grass, brush, pinyon pine and juniper, ten miles northwest of St. George, UT. A Type 1 IMT has been ordered. There are 100 primary structures, five commercial structures and 200 outbuildings potentially threatened. No structures have been destroyed. Population areas potentially threatened include the communities of Dammeron, Veyo, Gunlock, Brookside, Central, Pine Valley and the Shivwit Reservation and the Utah Hill Aviation and Communication site. Steep, rugged terrain is hampering containment efforts. Extreme fire behavior observed. The fire is zero percent contained with an estimated date for full containment of August 5.

MT Wildfires

HUTCHINSON COULEE: This 1,000 acre fire of unknown cause started on July 26, 2006, is burning in timber and grass, eight miles south of Hysham, MT. Twelve primary structures and six outbuildings are potentially threatened. No structures have been destroyed. Fire behavior consisting of torching, running and spotting was reported. The fire is 20 percent contained with an estimated date for full containment of July 28.

OWL: This 6,000 acre fire of unknown cause started on July 26, 2006, is burning in timber, grass and sage, nine miles southeast of Lodge Grass, MT. Six primary structures and 25 outbuildings are potentially threatened. No structures have been destroyed. Fire behavior consisting of extreme rates of spread, torching and spotting was observed. The fire is zero percent contained. There is no estimated date for full containment.

WOODCHUCK: This 700 acre fire of unknown cause started on July 25, 2006, is burning in grass and timber, 12 miles south of Missoula, MT. A Type 2 IMT will assume command on July 27. There are 24 structures potentially threatened. One primary structure has been destroyed. An evacuation order is in place for the residents of Upper Woodchuck. Fire behavior of active burning through the night with isolated torching and short range spotting was observed. The fire is 20 percent contained. There is no estimated date for full containment.

GASH CREEK: This 640 acre fire of unknown cause started on July 24, 2006, is burning in timber, six miles south of Victor, MT. A Type 2 IMT is assigned. Twelve primary structures are potentially threatened. No structures have been destroyed. Extreme fire behavior consisting of torching, running and wind-driven spotting was reported. The fire is 25 percent contained. There is no estimated date for full containment.

PACKER GULCH: This 3,059 acre human-caused fire started on July 16, 2006, and is burning in timber, 11 miles northwest of Drummond, MT. A Type 2 IMT is assigned. There are 11 primary structures, and 11 outbuildings potentially threatened. One primary structure and two outbuildings have been destroyed. Rugged terrain and difficult access are hampering containment efforts. Fire activity was limited to interior smoking and burning of green islands within the perimeter. The fire is 90 percent contained with an estimated date for full containment of July 28

SOUTH PINE: This 420 acre lightning-caused fire started on July 17, 2006, and is burning in timber, 11 miles northeast of Pray, MT. A Type 2 IMT is assigned. No structures are threatened. No structures have been destroyed. Steep rugged terrain continues to impede containment efforts. Fire behavior activity was limited to creeping and smoldering. The fire is 40 percent contained. There is no estimated date for full containment.

SD Wildfires

(East Ridge Fire) Meade County, South Dakota
A wildfire was started (lightning strike) on 26 July, 2006 and is located in Meade County, South Dakota northwest of Rapid City, SD and south of Piedmont, SD. The wildfire currently has burned an estimated 200 to 300 acres. The fire is located among and threatening four subdivisions (Wonderland Homes, Crooked Oaks, East Ridge Acres and Lofty Pines) with an estimated 300 to 350 homes and 10 to 20 businesses affected, over 100 people have been voluntarily evacuated. As of this report no structures have been reported losses. Additionally one major power transmission line is being threatened. Currently, the fire is reported to be zero percent contained.

The fire is moving south/southwest and is straddling a ridge. Currently, winds are at a northeast heading with the temperature at 98 degrees and the humidity at 15 percent. This weather is predicted to be above 100 degrees tomorrow with a zero percent chance of rain. It has been reported that there are a total of 17 fires both large and small burning within the state with a total of 1000 acres being affected.

Three single engine tanker aircraft and 1 large tanker aircraft are on scene. Other fire resources include 15-20 wild-land fire engines and 10 to 15 structural fire engines are on scene. A Type 1 incident team will be at the scene tomorrow at approx 12:00 pm. A type 2 incident team will arrive on scene tonight. (FEMA Region VIII, USFS)

OR Wildfire

The Black Crater Fire started on July 23, by lightning in the Deschutes National Forest near Sisters, Oregon. The fire has grown rapidly, fueled by insect and disease killed timber, hot temperatures, low humidity, gusty winds, and limited numbers of firefighting resources. This afternoon the fire is exhibiting extreme, plume dominated fire behavior, resulting in spotting ½ mile in front of the main fire.

It spotted across to the Northeast, towards Sisters which triggered evacuations of Crossroads Subdivision and Edginton Road. The Tollgate subdivision has been put on evacuation notice. Fire is immediately threatening Crossroads subdivision (170 homes, 80% full time, 423 people) and Edginton Road (29 homes, mostly full time, 73 people) which are currently being evacuated. Tollgate subdivision (413 homes, 60% full time, 1033 people) is on evacuation notice. Main fire front is approximately 1 1/2 miles from Crossroads, 3 ½ miles from Edginton, 2 ½ miles from Tollgate. Fire is spotting ½ mile in front of the main fire, which is a significant concern. Fire is moving directly toward Crossroads and Edginton. Estimate the current size is 3600 Acres, roughly 75% Forest Service/25% Private.

Given the continued hot dry weather forecast, including gusty winds, large amount of dead material in the forest that is being burned, and lack of firefighting resources, it is expect there will be a significant threat to the subdivisions to the east of Sisters for a number of days.

Deschutes County has requested that the governor invoke the Conflagration Act to provide additional structural resources. (FEMA Region X)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Fire Management Assistance Grant #2658 was granted on July 27, 2006, to South Dakota for the East Ridge Fire in Meade County.

Fire Management Assistance Grant #2659 was granted on July 27, 2006, to Oregon for the Black Crater Fire in Deschutes County. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea: Westward-moving tropical wave accompanied by a surface low pressure system is located about 700 miles southwest of the Cape Verde islands. This system continues to show signs of increasing organization and upper-level winds are expected to gradually become more conducive for some additional development to occur over the next couple of days.
Elsewhere, tropical storm formation is not expected through Saturday, July 29, 2006.

Eastern Pacific: The national hurricane center has issued the final advisory on dissipating Tropical Depression Emilia located about 290 miles west of Punta Eugenia, Mexico.
Elsewhere, tropical storm formation is not expected through Saturday, July 29, 2006.

Western Pacific: There is no activity in this region. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

A light (4.9 magnitude) earthquake struck 103 miles southeast of Honolulu, HI at 4:03 pm EDT, July 27, 2006. There were no reports of injuries and no Tsunami was generated. (United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, NOAA/NWS/West Coast-Alaska Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 4 (On a scale from 1 to 5)
Initial attack activity was moderate with 291 new fires reported throughout the nation. Twenty-two new large fires were reported: one each in South Dakota, Arizona, Colorado, Texas, Oregon, and Washington; four in California; six in Nevada; four in Montana; and two in Utah. Twelve large fires were contained: one each in Arizona, California, Arkansas, Oregon, and Montana; two each in Idaho and Utah; and three in Nevada.

A dry west to northwest flow will prevail over the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, and the northern half of the Great Basin. A monsoon moisture will continue over the western states creating scattered thunderstorms. (National Interagency Fire Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity