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National Situation Update: Tuesday, July 25, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Forecast

West:  Although the massive ridge of high pressure aloft will weaken a bit, much of the West will stay hot, but temperatures should come down a few degrees, especially along the coast. Across the Intermountain West and Southwest, expect scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains in the afternoon and perhaps into the valleys by evening.
 
South:  Low pressure has developed along the Mexican Coast near Tampico. Conditions aloft will not allow this low to develop but if upper winds subside and the low drifts more into the Gulf, some tropical development is possible. Tropical moisture will move northward toward the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. Some areas around Houston are vulnerable to flooding so the situation will have to be monitored closely. A wave of low pressure will move northeastward form Georgia to the Carolinas and southeastern Virginia by this evening. Scattered thunderstorms, with locally heavy rain can be expected up through the eastern Carolinas to the Tidewater area of Virginia. Other thunderstorms will be scattered around the Gulf Coast region.

Midwest:  A weak cold front will drop southward across the Great Lakes and the result will be scattered thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms could be severe, containing very strong wind gusts and hail. Thunderstorms are most likely from southern Iowa to southern Michigan. The front should remain nearly stationary into tomorrow keeping the threat of thunderstorms in the forecast.

Northeast:  The Northeast experienced a pleasant Monday and most of the region will be the same today. The exception will be from northwest Pennsylvania and western New York northeastward to northern New York where scattered thunderstorms will develop, mainly during the afternoon hours. (NWS, Media Sources)

Tropical Storm Daniel Update

During the daily Conference Call at 7:00 pm EDT, July 24, 2006, the National Weather Service (NWS) reported Tropical Storm Daniel on track to make landfall on the Big Island of Hawaii sometime around midnight Thursday July 27, 2006 or early Friday July 28, 2006.

The water temperature is between 77 and 79 degrees F and should not be a strengthening factor for the storm.  The storm is expected to weaken considerably and will probably only have Tropical Storm intensity winds by landfall, although these winds may extend outwards up to 100 miles.  Rainfall is expected to be 4 to 6 inches with the potential of up to 10 inches in some locations on the Island of Hawaii and 2 to 4 inches on all the other islands.  The storm is expected to take 12 hours to transit the Island of Hawaii. 

Hurricane Hunter aircraft are en-route and will fly their first mission on Wednesday at 2:00 pm EDT with additional flights through the area throughout the rest of the day, including the first-time use of the new Gulfstream IV aircraft which will circle the outer edge of the storm and provide valuable information on wind and motion conditions, allowing more accurate forecasting.  The NWS predicts that Tropical Storm force winds of 40 to 60 mph will impact all islands. 

The NWS will start issuing Tropical Storm Watches approximately 36 hours prior to the forecast landfall, and will issue a Hurricane Warning approximately 12 hours later.  There is enough uncertainty in the forecast to generate an error in the potential storm track of up to 150 miles north or south of current projections. 

The Hawaii Red Cross has completed a call down of shelter managers and plans to open shelters on the Big Island on Thursday morning.  A decision will be made on Wednesday morning regarding priority evacuation of medically fragile patients and tourists.  The Hawaii State EOC has established a watch condition 24 hours a day.  Daily conference calls between FEMA Region IX, the Hawaii State EOC, other stakeholders, and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will occur every day at 7:00 pm EDT. 

A FEMA Region IX liaison officer is on site at the Hawaii State Civil Defense EOC and will also attend the Hawaii National Guard daily contingency planning meetings and the FEMA Region IX Duty Officer will continue to issue two incident reports a day.  (FEMA Region IX, FEMA HQ, National Weather Service)

FEMA Regional Updates

CO Wildfires
SOUR PATCH:  This 300 acre lightning-caused fire started on July18, 2006, and is burning in pinyon pine, juniper, sagebrush and grass, 20 miles northwest of Meeker, CO.  One outbuilding is potentially threatened.  No structures have been destroyed.  The fire is 15 percent contained with an estimated date for full containment of July 25.  (FEMA Region VIII)

MT Wildfires
PACKER GULCH:  This 2,900 acre human-caused fire started on July 16, 2006, and is burning in timber, 11 miles northwest of Drummond, MT.  A Type 2 IMT is assigned.  There are 11 primary structures, 11 outbuildings potentially threatened.  One primary structure and two outbuildings have been destroyed.  Rugged terrain and flash fuels are hampering containment efforts.  Creeping, smoldering surface fire with scattered single tree torching fire behavior was reported.  The fire is 60 percent contained.  There is no estimated date for full containment.
SOUTH PINE:  This 370 acre fire lightning fire started on July 17, 2006, and is burning in timber, 11 miles northeast of Pray, MT.  A Type 2 IMT is assigned.  No structures are threatened.  No structures have been destroyed.  Steep rugged terrain and inaccessibility are impeding containment efforts.  Moderate fire behavior with isolated torching and short range spotting was reported.  The fire is 25 percent contained.  There is no estimated date for full containment.   (FEMA Region VIII)

UT Wildfires
SUNSET CANYON:  This 650 acre lightning-caused fire started on July 23, 2006, and is burning in timber, pinyon pine, oak brush, and mountain mahogany, 55 miles north-northwest of Richfield, UT.  A Type 2 IMT is assigned.  Twelve primary structures are potentially threatened.  No structures have been destroyed.  Active fire behavior with running torching, spotting and crowning was observed.  The fire is zero percent contained.  There is no estimated date for full containment.
CHIPMAN:  This 445 acre lightning-caused fire started on July 22, 2006, and is burning in pinyon pine, juniper and grass, 21 miles north of Cedar City, UT.  No structures are threatened.  No structures have been destroyed.  No significant fire activity was reported.  The fire is 95 percent contained.  There is no estimated date for full containment.   (FEMA Region VIII)

WY Wildfires
LITTLE VENUS:  This 27,485 acre lightning-caused fire started on June 19, 2006 and is burning in bug-killed spruce and heavy down fuels, 30 miles west of Meeteetse, WY.  A Type 2 IMT is assigned.  A historic cabin continues to be potentially threatened.  No structures have been destroyed.  Extreme fire behavior with torching and spotting was reported.  The fire is 25 percent contained.  There is no estimated date for full containment.    (FEMA Region VIII)

CA Wildfires
AUBERRY COMPLEX:   FEMA Region IX is currently monitoring the Auberry Fire Complex.  This small, 300 acre incident located in Fresno County, CA is currently burning in steep, inaccessible terrain near the community of Auberry.  The complex started on Sunday, July 23, as the separate Smalley and Power fires, subsequently merging into the Auberry Complex.  Evacuations were advised by the County Sheriff's Department for up to 200 immediately threatened homes in the community of Auberry.  There were also threats to a nursing home and power facilities.  
One hundred fifty three personnel are currently working the fire.  Cooperating/participating agencies/departments include the California Dept. of Forestry, Fresno County and the Auberry Fire Dept. 
FEMA Region IX will continue to monitor, providing up to the minute status updates and coordination as required on fire suppression assistance.   (FEMA Region IX)

HORSE FIRE:  A Fire Management Assistance Grant was approved Monday, July 24, for the 7,600 acre Horse Fire in San Diego, California.  Evacuations have been initiated for up to 1,850 residents due to fire activity in steep terrain five miles south of the community of Alpine, California.  A total of 1,500 residences and 100 commercial properties are reported threatened.  Poor access, heavy fuels, and erratic weather continue to hamper containment efforts on the fire, which is currently reported at five percent contained.  Four hundred seventy firefighters, four air tankers, 1 helicopter, and 43 engines are currently engaged.  FEMA Region IX will continue to monitor.  There are no additional requests for federal assistance.   (FEMA Region IX)

OR Wildfires
FOSTER GULCH COMPLEX:  The Complex consists of two large fires: the McClain Fire (1,500 acres) near Copperfield, Oregon, and the Foster Gulch Fire (3,500 acres) near Richland, Oregon.  The fires are threatening approximately 80 homes in several small communities.  Twenty homes along Pine Creek, Highway 86 South of Copperfield, are immediately threatened and have been evacuated.  An additional 60 homes are threatened between the communities of Copperfield and Oxbow (McClain Fire) and Pine and Richland (Foster Gulch Fire.)  The McClain Fire is an immediate threat to the Idaho Power transmission lines west of the Snake River between Copperfield and Homestead, Oregon and the substations north of the Oxbow Dam.  The Foster Gulch Fire is within ½ mile of Richland and residents have been put on evacuation notice.

The fires are burning in very steep terrain with volatile grass and sage as fuels and heavier ponderosa pine in the draws.  There is a continued threat of dry thunderstorms causing erratic winds and new fire starts.  Extreme high temperatures, marginal overnight cooling, and low relative humidity combine to create conditions for extreme fire behavior that does not slow down at night.  The rapid spread and large increase in fire acreage is expected.

The State requested the Governor declare the Conflagration Act to help provide additional resources.  It was approved at 11:10 PM EDT, July 24, 2006.  There have been no reports on assets being utilized at this time.

FEMA Region X will continue to monitor.   (FEMA Region X)

CA Potential Power Outage

California power system operators yesterday afternoon declared a Stage 2 electrical emergency, under which certain industrial users will be asked to curtail operations and state agencies were required to reduce their power consumption by 25 percent.

The state's utility regulator, the Independent System Operator (ISO), has asked certain industries to curtail operations and has asked citizens and businesses to conserve energy during this critical time frame.  The reductions appeared to work. By 8:00 pm EDT, ISO officials said the threat of rolling blackouts had passed.

With office buildings powering up their air conditioners after the hot weekend, demand for electricity was expected to hit record highs for the third time in a week. Power-grid operators are pleading with people and businesses to conserve.

The Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) system was running trains at slower speeds to conserve energy.  The Utilities credit massive volunteer conservations effort for helping to save hundreds of megawatts and avoid forced outages so far.

FEMA Region IX will continue to monitor in close coordination with CA Office of Emergency Services (CalOES)  (FEMA Region IX)

Tropical Activity

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:  A 1011 mb surface low centered near Tampico, Mexico is moving north at 5 to 10 kt. Shower and thunderstorm activity over much of the western Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche has increased and become a little better organized.  Upper-level winds are expected to become a little more favorable and a tropical depression could develop during the next day or so, if the low pressure center remains offshore.   

Eastern Pacific:  At 5:00 am. EDT Tuesday, July 25, 2006, the center of Tropical Storm Daniel was located near latitude 16.2 north longitude 142.7 west about 850 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Daniel has maximum sustained winds of 65 mph and is traveling west over open water at 7 mph. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).

At 11:00 p.m. EDT Sunday, the center of Tropical Storm Emilia (formerly Depression Six-E) was located near latitude 19.5 north longitude 110.4 west off the coast of Baja California Mexico. Emilia has maximum sustained winds near 51 mph. The storm is presently moving toward the north-northwest at a speed near 6 mph. Emilia is forecast to remain over warm water during the next 24-36 hours.  On its current path, Emilia does not pose a threat to the U.S. or U.S. interests.

Western Pacific:  Typhoon Kaemi (Six-W) does not pose a threat to the U.S. or its territories.  (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 4 (On a scale from 1 to 5)
[NOTE:  Level 4 exists when any of the following conditions are present:  two or more regions of the country are experiencing incidents requiring Type I Teams or competition exists for resources between Geographic Areas or when 425 crews or five Type I Teams are committed nationally. During Level 4, some firefighting resources may be pre-positioned to respond to predicted incidents and liaisons are established with the military and Canadian resources.]

Wildland fire activity was heavy throughout the nation with 356 new fires reported. Nineteen new large fires were reported: two in Arizona, five in California, one in Colorado, one in Texas, one in Idaho, five in Nevada, three in Oregon, and two in Utah. Eight large fires were contained: one each in Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Oregon, Montana, Utah, and Wyoming. 

Hot conditions will continue in the western states. Dry thunderstorms are predicted to develop over the Northwest, northern California, northern Great Basin, and norther portions of the Intermountain West. Wet thunderstorms will continue over the southern Great Basin, southern California, and the Southwest. Hot, dry, and windy conditions will continue over the central and southern Plains.   (National Interagency Fire Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)