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National Situation Update: Thursday, July 20, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Tropical Storm Beryl

At 5:00 am EDT (0900z) Thursday July 20, the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located near latitude 37.8 north, longitude 73.2 west or about 210 miles south of New York City and about 295 miles south-southwest of Nantucket, Massachusetts.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for southeastern Massachusetts from Plymouth to Woods Hole, including Cape Cod, Nantucket Island, and Martha's Vineyard. Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of Long Island and the New England coast later today.

Beryl is moving toward the north at 9 mph. A turn toward the northeast and a faster forward speed are expected during the next 24 hours.  This motion could bring the center of Beryl near the southeastern coast of Massachusetts tonight or Friday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours. 

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force reserve aircraft is 1001 mb or 29.56 inches of mercury. (National Hurricane Center)

Significant National Weather

West: Over much of the West the ongoing heat will remain with isolated thunderstorms over Rockies.
The Northwest will see high temperatures in the 80s and 90s, and temperatures are forecast to increase into a weekend heat wave. High temperatures are forecast to range from the 60s in some of the higher valleys of the Colorado mountains to over 100 in the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys and  over 110 in the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts.

Midwest: A cold front moving southeast will produce severe weather across southern Michigan and the lower Midwest. To the west, a few severe late-day storms could develop over western Nebraska and western South Dakota. South of the advancing cold front highs will be over 100 in most of Kansas and Missouri. Maxima in the 90s will grip the Ohio Valley.

South: Scattered thunderstorms are forecast for the afternoon and evening across the Deep South, Florida, and southern Texas. With the greatest concentration of thunderstornms expected over the Florida Peninsula. High heat and humidity will persist with maximum temperatures mostly in the 90s and 100s. Only the Florida Peninsula and parts of North Carolina will see highs in the 80s.

Northeast:Tropical Storm Beryl (see http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/  for the latest information) is expected to have minimal impacts on the Northeast, although a small craft advisory is in effect for winds gusting 25 to 30 kts and seas ranging from 7 to 10 ft from Moriches inlet to Montauk Point on Long Island as the storm passes by to the south. Southeastern New England (e.g., Cape Cod) appears to have the potential of some gusty winds and storm tides of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels and total rainfalls of 2 to 4 inches. Expect scattered showers over southeastern New England during the day today. A few afternoon showers and storms may fall over Virginia. High temperatures will be mostly in the 80s across the region, with a few areas in the 70s. (NWS, Media Sources)

California Wildfire Update

The Sawtooth-Millard-Heart Complex Fire has burned a total of 86,710 acres.
The Sawtooth Complex Fire (61,700 acres) is now 100 percent contained.
The Millard Complex Fire (24,210 acres) is 57 percent contained.
The Heart Fire (800 acres) is 10 percent contained.

National Weather Service (NWS) indicates low to moderate potential for flash flooding in San Bernardino and Riverside Counties. 

There has been no request for FEMA assistance other than the Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG) # 2653, approved July 12, 2006.

Significant new impacts are not expected.  (National Interagency Fire Center, Region IX, California Dept. of Forestry and Fire Protection ,California OES)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea: 
No significant systems except for Tropical Storm Beryl discussed above.

Eastern Pacific:
Hurricane Daniel in the Pacific southwest of Baja and moving to the west. Based on the current warning this system does not pose a threat to the U.S. or its territories.

Western Pacific:
Tropical Storm 06W (Kaemi) is 190 miles southwest of Guam and is forecast to continue moving to the northwest as it slowly intensifies. Based on the current warning this system does not pose a threat to U.S. territories. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

A Moderate 5.0 magnitude earthquake occurred offshore Northern California at 7:41 am EDT yesterday. The epicenter was 198 miles northwest of Sacramento CA at a depth of 12.9 miles. No tsunami was generated. (United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, NOAA/NWS/West Coast-Alaska Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 3 (On a scale from 1 to 5)

Yesterday's initial attack activity was heavy nationally with 399 new fires reported.

Thirteen new large fires were reported, four in the Eastern Great Basin Area, two each in the Southwest, Northern California, and Rocky Mountain Areas, and one each in the Western Great Basin, Northern Rockies, and southern Areas.

Ten large fires were contained, two each in the Northern California, Rocky Mountain, Northern Rockies, and Southern Areas and one each in the Western Great Basin and Southern California Areas.
Very high to extreme fire indices were reported in Arizona, California, Colorado, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Dakota, Oregon, South Dakota, Utah, Wisconsin, Idaho, and Wyoming.(National Interagency Fire Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Amendment #1 for FEMA-1654-DR-Delaware closed the incident period effective July 14th, 2006.(FEMA HQ)