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National Situation Update: Tuesday, July 18, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West:  Interior areas of the Southwest will have scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Western Washington, western Oregon, the northern California coast and the Rockies will have moderate temperatures as the heat persists elsewhere. High temperatures will range from the 60s in northwest Washington and along the north Pacific coast to over 110 in the deserts of California and Arizona. Look for highs over 100 degrees over California's Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys, parts of the Great Basin and the high plains east of the Rockies as far north as eastern Wyoming.

Northeast: A weak cold front moving into the Northeast will produce a few strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of New York. High temperatures are expected to range from the 70s over parts of northern New England and Upstate New York to over 100 in parts of southeastern Virginia.

Midwest: A weak cold front will produce isolated thunderstorms from Ohio to Illinois. A few storms could be severe with hail and gusty winds. Highs temperatures will range from the upper 70s in the Arrowhead of Minnesota and parts of Michigan's Upper Peninsula to over 100 in western South Dakota, western Nebraska, Kansas and far western Missouri.

South: Isolated thunderstorms are forecast for much of the Deep South while the Florida Peninsula will have to deal with scattered thunderstorms. Highs are forecast to range from the high 80s across much the Florida Peninsula to over 100 degrees in parts of eastern North Carolina, all of Oklahoma, much of Texas and most of Arkansas. (NWS, Media Sources)

California Wildfire Update

The Sawtooth Fire:  Expected containment for the Sawtooth Complex area is projected for July 18 at 9:00 pm EDT.

The Millard fire is at 26% containment with no estimated containment date. The main threat of the Millard Fire is Whitewater Canyon in Riverside County.

No containment date is projected the Heart Fire. The Heart Fire is not a new fire, but part of the Sawtooth/Millard Complex, to provide for management of the portion of the fire that has moved into a new geographic area of the Onyx Peak vicinity.

A Fire Emergency Local Assistance Center (FELAC) was opened on July 15 at the Yucca Valley Community Center. Attendance and activity will be evaluated to determine continued operation.

Bulldozer operations are in effect to prevent a potential fire run on the town of Big Bear. (National Interagency Fire Center, Region IX, California Dept. of Forestry and Fire Protection, ,California OES)

Tropical Activity

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea: 
No significant systems at this time.

Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Storm 05E (Daniel) is south of the Baja Peninsula, moving west out to sea and forecast to become a hurricane later today. Based on the current warning this system does not pose a threat to the U.S. or its territories.

Tropical Depression 04E (Carlotta) has dissipated over water.

Western Pacific:
Tropical Depression 06W has formed in the Pacific southeast of Guam.  Tropical Depression 06W is expected to continue a northwest motion passing about 150 miles southwest of Guam at 2 pm EDT today.  As it does bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms will move through the Marianas bringing winds of 20 to 25 mph with gusts as high as 35 mph. Total rainfall of 4 to 6 inches can be expected with local flooding at times on roads and in poor-drainage areas. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No significant earthquake activity in the United States or its territories during the last 24 hours.

Internationally, significant earthquakes and aftershocks continue near Java, Indonesia following yesterday's 7.7 earthquake. (United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, NWS, West Coast-Alaska Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 3 (On a scale from 1 to 5)

Initial attack activity was moderate nationally with 207 new fires reported. Thirteen new large fires were reported, three each in the Eastern Great Basin and Rocky Mountain Areas, two in the Northern Rockies Area and one each in the Northern California, Southwestern, Southern, Western Great Basin and Eastern Areas. One large fire was contained in the Rocky Mountain Area.

Very high to extreme fire indices were reported in Arizona, California, Colorado, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, Nevada, North Dakota, Oregon, South Dakota, Utah, Washington, Wisconsin, Idaho and Wyoming.

Weather Discussion: High pressure ridge remains over the West with hot, dry weather for most of the region. Monsoon moisture is slowly starting to filter into southern California and the southern Great Basin. In Minnesota, a cold front will move through the area for cooler temperatures and lower humidity.(National Interagency Fire Center  http://www.nifc.gov/fireinfo/nfn.html )

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)