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National Situation Update: Monday, July 17, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Weather Hazards for the Week

• From July 17 - 18, extreme heat is expected across much of the West.
• From July 17 - 20, extreme heat is expected across much of the central and eastern United States.
• From July 17 - 19, there is a high risk for wildfires over the northern High Plains.
• From July 17 - 19, fire danger will remain high across California and the Great Basin.
• From July 17 - 18, severe weather is possible over the upper Midwest and the northern Great Lakes.
• Severe drought will persist across the Southwest and portions of the Plains.
• Severe drought will persist across southern Texas and the central Gulf Coast. (NWS)
  

Significant National Weather

Northeast:  Dry weather, with heat on the increase in the Northeast for Monday. Highs will mostly range from 90 to 100. Only areas to escape the high temps are in far northern New York State, much of northern and southeastern New England, and in the higher mountains of West Virginia. 

Midwest:  Scattered showers and thunderstorms from Michigan to Iowa (and maybe northern Missouri), but the remainder of the region will be sunny and dry for Monday.

South:  Showers and thunderstorm activity is forecast for areas of Florida, and a few storms will extend westward along the Gulf Coast. 

West:  Precipitation will be absent across the vast majority of the region, with only isolated storms expected in the Four Corners states and maybe Southern California. The storms, bringing only highly localized rain relief, will be mainly dry lightning and gusty wind producers.  (NWS, Media Sources)

California Wildfire Update

The Sawtooth Fire (62,000 acres) has merged with the Millard Fire (15,572 acres) and the Heart Fire (800 acres).  The Heart Fire is not new, but a part of the Sawtooth/Millard Complex.  The Heart Fire was established due to the merger of the Sawtooth and Millard Complexes, to provide for management of the portion of the fire that has moved into a new geographic area of the Onyx Peak.

• The combined fire/complex has consumed 78,372 acres.  Combined containment is reported at 60%. 1,500 residences, 1,500 outbuildings and/or other structures, and 50 commercial properties remain threatened. 
  
• The combined personnel on the incident now total 4,021.
  
• FEMA will continue to monitor.  No request for Federal assistance has been made.

Canyon Fire: 31,933 acres at 75 percent contained. This fire is 11 miles west of Patterson, California. Several residences, ranches, rangelands, watersheds remain threatened. Very active fire behavior was reported.

The National Weather Service warns that thunderstorms are likely as monsoonal moisture moves into the area, which is already experiencing record levels of heat. Cloud systems building over the mountains aren't likely to produce much moisture Monday, but rain is likely by mid-week. Mudslides and flash floods are possible.

Midday Sunday, law enforcement and public works officials set about warning as many as 5,000 people from Landers to Morongo Valley about the potential danger. (National Interagency Fire Center, Region IX, California Dept. of Forestry and Fire Protection, California OES, media sources)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea: 
Tropical storm formation is not expected through Tuesday (July 18).
No significant systems or tropical waves

Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Depression Carlotta continues its downward trend and expected to dissipate in 36 to 48 hours.

Tropical Depression 5-E is moving W at 15 mph, away from the west coast, and is expected to become a hurricane in 24 to 48 hours.

These tropical cyclones do not pose a threat to the U.S. or its territories.

Western Pacific:
 Nothing significant to report. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

Cherry Fire:  Valentine, Nebraska (Cherry County)  There have been 200 persons evacuated (mandatory), 8 homes destroyed; 90 more homes, 1 hospital and 2 assisted living homes threatened and evacuated. Highways 12 and 83 are the only two barriers. Fire is 0 percent contained. The State EOC has been activated.  Persons evacuated are being sheltered in 5 local motels. A Fire Management Assistant Grant was granted on July 17, 2006.

Bundy Railroad Fire:   This fire is 8 miles northeast of Worden, Montana.  Evacuations are in effect. Several residences, ranches, rangeland, livestock, timber and high voltage power lines are threatened. 60,000 acres, 20% contained.

Pine Ridge Complex Fire: Comprised of 7 fires located 30-60 miles east of Billings, Montana along I-94 and N of I-90 near Harden, Montana. Numerous residences, ranches, rangeland, agricultural crops, timber, power lines, and Interstate 94 rest areas are threatened. 87,500 acres, 20% contained. Expected containment is 07/19/06.

Thorne Divide Complex Fire: 13,000 acres at 25 percent contained. This fire is 5 miles south of Devils Tower National Monument, in Crook County Wyoming. Numerous residences, power lines and the National Monument remain threatened. Power lines have been shutdown and Highway 14 remains closed.

Initial attack activity was light nationally with 142 new fires reported.

Eight new large fires were reported, two in the Eastern Great Basin, two in the Northern Rockies, and one each in the Southern California, Western Great Basin, Eastern and Rocky Mountain Areas.

Five large fires were contained, two in the Eastern Great Basin Area, and one each in the Northern Rockies, Rocky Mountain and Southern California Areas.

Very high to extreme fire indices were reported in Arizona, California, Colorado, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Dakota, Oregon, South Dakota, Utah, Washington, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

Red Flag Warning: For northeast Wyoming and much of South Dakota into north-central Nebraska for winds, low relative humidity, hot temperatures and isolated dry lightning. For south central Montana for high temperatures, low relative humidity and gusty winds. Isolated dry thunderstorms will also be a possibility over south central Montana. (National Interagency Fire Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)