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National Situation Update: Saturday, July 15, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Extreme Heat to Continue in All Regions of the U.S.

West:  The Pacific Northwest will have moderate temperatures this weekend. The Great Basin and high Plains areas will experience temperatures in the 90s-100s. Highs in the Desert Southwest will range from 100-125 degrees. There is a chance of some thunderstorms in parts of Arizona, New Mexico, and Utah on Sunday.

Midwest:  Temperatures throughout the Midwest will be in the 90s-100s during the weekend. The high temperatures will extend throughout the region accompanied by high humidity. Chicago, Minneapolis, and St. Paul will see highs in the 90s. The National Weather Service (NWS) has issued heat advisories for those areas of the Midwest, especially urban areas such as Chicago, to warn people of the life-threatening dangers posed by the extreme heat and humidity. Red Flag Warnings have been posted for large portions of South Dakota during the weekend due to the extended dry weather and extremely high temperatures. Parts of South Dakota may see highs above 110 degrees this weekend.

Northeast:  The Northeast will see highs in the 90s during the weekend from the area extending from southern New England to Virginia. The Northeast will be hot, dry, and sunny. The NWS has issued heat advisories for several areas such as New York and Philadelphia where highs will reach near 100 degrees and be accompanied by high levels of humidity producing dangerous heat indices.

South:  The region is expected to be hot and humid for the next several days with highs in the 80s-90s in the Southeast and 90s-100s in the southern Plains. Some scattered thunderstorms are forecast for the area from Arkansas to Virginia. Temperatures in the region will begin to cool to seasonal levels on Sunday. (NWS, Media Sources)

Tropical Activity

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:  Tropical storm formation is not expected through Sunday (July 16).

As of 2:00 am EDT Saturday, one tropical wave is being tracked in the Atlantic Ocean and two tropical waves are being tracked in the Caribbean Sea.

The Atlantic wave is along 34W south of 16 N. A good amount of shower activity is associated with this wave.

A weak tropical wave is approaching the eastern Caribbean along 59W /60W south of 15N moving westward near 20 mph. No significant convection is presently associated with this wave. This wave is forecast to pass mainly south of Puerto Rico on Sunday.

Another tropical wave in the Caribbean is along 74W/75W south of 20N moving westward at 15 mph. Some convection is associated with this wave at this time. This wave is expected to reach south Florida including the Florida Keys Sunday evening.

Currently these tropical waves do not pose an immediate threat to the U.S. or its territories.

Eastern Pacific:As of 5:00 am EDT Saturday, Tropical Depression Bud (downgraded from a Tropical Storm) continues to move away from land and is decreasing in intensity. Bud's maximum sustained winds are approximately 35 mph. Bud is expected to weaken below depression strength or actually dissipate within 48 hours.

Hurricane Carlotta, with sustained winds near 80 mph, continues to move away from land but has increased in intensity during the previous 24 hours. Carlotta is expected to wind down to become a depression in the next few days.

These tropical cyclones do not pose a threat to the U.S. or its territories.

Western Pacific:Nothing significant to report. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level is 3 (on a scale from 1 to 5).

As of 7:30 am EST Friday, wildfire activity was light with 167 new fires reported. Ten new large fires were reported. Seven large fires were contained.

Very high to extreme fire indices were reported in Arizona, Alaska, California, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oregon, South Dakota, Utah and Wyoming.

The Southern California wildfires continue to pose significant risk to populated areas. As of Friday at 6:30 pm EDT, the Sawtooth Complex fire in San Bernardino has destroyed 38 homes, 8 garages, 105 outbuildings, 122 cars/trucks, 15 trailers, 2 railcars, 7 tractors, and damaged at least 8 homes. The fire threatens approximately 3,000+ structures. Six injuries have been reported - all minor. Mandatory evacuations have been issued for some residents in the fire area. The fire is 20% contained.

The Millard Complex fire in the San Bernardino National Forest near the city of Cabazon is composed of four fires. This fire is only 5% contained. Numerous residences are threatened. This fire complex merged with the Sawtooth Complex Friday afternoon. The extreme hot weather combined with a low relative humidity is expected to hamper firefighters' efforts.
(National Interagency Fire Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)