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National Situation Update: Thursday, July 6, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

South:  Scattered rain and thunderstorms are forecast throughout the Deep South. Scattered showers will also be over Florida, and across southern and far southwestern Texas. A few severe storms are predicted in southeastern North Carolina, much of South Carolina and southern Georgia.

Northeast: After a threat of some morning rain in parts of the Northeast, the region will enjoy pleasant weather Thursday.

West:  Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will pop-up over the Interior West tomorrow. A few severe storms are forecast in Idaho and western Montana. 

Midwest:  High pressure and sunshine will dominate the Midwest tomorrow.  (NWS, Media Sources)

Movies of California Quakes Help Preparedness

Scientists at the California Institute of Technology can now create a movie just 45 minutes after a temblor, showing how seismic waves spread from the epicenter.

During a recent demonstration, the staff at the Caltech's Seismological Laboratory played a movie of the 2003 magnitude-5.1 Big Bear quake.

The movie featured a 3-D map of Southern California with color-coded waves radiating from Big Bear in San Bernardino County and slowing down as they hit the Los Angeles basin, shaking the area like gelatin.

The public can access movies for Southern California temblors of magnitude 3.5 and higher at http://shakemovie.caltech.edu dating back to 1999. The information could help Southern California residents better understand how temblors behave and whether they will be affected by the ground shaking.

The seismic movies, based on simulations made by the university's new 2,048-processor supercomputer, are the latest high-tech tools available to the public after a temblor.

Last year, the U.S. Geological Survey unveiled an online forecast that calculates the probability of aftershocks at specific locations over a 24-hour period. Before that, the agency created ShakeMaps, computer maps that show areas of intense shaking.

FEMA Regional Activity

FEMA-1638-DR-Kansas has been approved for closure effective July 07, 2006

Tropical Activity

Atlantic: No tropical storm activity.
Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea: No new activity to report.
Eastern Pacific: No tropical storm activity.
Western Pacific: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert southeast of Guam cancelled. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

PDAs are anticipated to begin in the Commonwealth of Virginia on July 5, 2006

Individual Assistance and Public Assistance PDAs for Otero County, New Mexico are scheduled to begin on July 5, 2006. (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

Bull Complex:  This 43,571 acre complex of lightning-caused fires (including the Bull - 24,746 acres and Cove Mountain - 18,825 acre Fires) is burning 25 miles northwest of St. George, Utah.  A Type 1 IMT is assigned.  No structures are threatened.  No structures have been destroyed.  The fire is 50 percent contained with estimated full containment July 07.

Activity was moderate nationally with 296 new fires reported. Four new large fires were reported, one each in the Northern California, Alaska, Northwest and Northern Rockies Areas. Eleven large fires were contained, three each in the Eastern Great Basin and Southern Areas, two in the Southwest Area and one each in the Western Great Basin, Northern California and Northwest Areas.

Very high to extreme fire indices were reported in Arizona, California, Colorado, Minnesota, Montana, New Mexico, Nebraska, Nevada, North Dakota, South Dakota and Utah.

Red Flag Warning: For central and east-central Nevada for dry lightning.  (National Interagency Fire Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-1654-DR-DE was declared on July, 5, 2006, for severe storms and flooding. Incident period is June 23, 2006 and continuing.  Public Assistance for Sussex County, including direct Federal assistance, and Hazard Mitigation statewide. FCO is Glen R. Sachtleben.  (FEMA HQ)