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National Situation Update: Wednesday, July 5, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

Northeast: Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast for portions of the Northeast Wednesday as a cold front pushes southeastward through the region. The threat is expected to focus on areas from central New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania into West Virginia, Virginia and the DelMarVa region. In addition to big thunderstorms, some heavy downpours are likely, too, mainly from Virginia into central and southern New Jersey. The system could persist into tomorrow night. Otherwise, dry weather is expected tomorrow in northern Pennsylvania, much of New York state and northern New England.
                                                                                                                                                
South: Scattered storms and downpours are predicted for much of the South tomorrow. By evening, some of the storms could turn severe in the western Carolinas, eastern Tennessee and northern Georgia.

West: Most of the Mountain West will have sporadic showers and thunderstorms again tomorrow, mainly during the afternoon and evening, while the West Coast, eastern Montana and eastern Wyoming remain predominately dry.

Midwest: Some showers and thunderstorms will remain in the Ohio Valley and across Kentucky Wednesday.  The Midwest and Plains will have sunny skies.  (NWS, Media Sources)

FEMA Regional Flood Updates

The 200-foot stretch of the Delaware River in Stockton, New Jersey (Hunterdon County) that breached into the canal can not be repaired until the water further recedes.

Stockton Borough remains vulnerable to additional flooding due to rainfall and continues to take on water. The levee is no longer protecting the Borough and a State of Emergency will remain in effect until repaired. 

The Delaware River continues to recede in all areas of western NJ. The NWS predicts additional rain fall through July 5 which may slow rivers returning to normal pre-flood levels as quickly as hoped. 

Thunderstorms may adversely impact on-going field operations; similarly, rain will lengthen period of flooding threat to low-lying other flood prone areas.

Pennsylvania reports all municipal water systems have restored service, although there are several that still have "boil water advisories." 

New York reported a number of waste water treatment plants are damaged and will not be on line until repairs are made. (FEMA Region II, FEMA Region III, NYEOC, PEMA, media reports)

Tropical Activity

Atlantic: No tropical storm activity.
Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea: No new activity to report.
Eastern Pacific: No tropical storm activity.
Western Pacific: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert:  Formation of a significant tropical cyclone is possible for an area of convection approximately 845 nm southeast of Guam within the next 12 to 24 hours. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 23 to 29 mph. The system is moving west-northwestward at 3 mph. The disturbance is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of Chuuk state through Thursday. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

A minor earthquake shook the San Juan Islands in Washington State Tuesday afternoon. The magnitude 3.6 temblor was centered about 15 miles south-south west of San Juan Island, according to the Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network.  (United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, NWS, West Coast-Alaska Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

PDAs are anticipated to begin in the Commonwealth of Virginia on July 5, 2006
PDAs in the State of Delaware for IA and PA are complete.
In Pennsylvania, IA PDAs are in progress, PA PDAs should begin by July 10 (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

Bull Complex: The fires are 30% contained as the Bull fire stands at 24,746 acres and the Cove Mountain fire at 18,825 acres for a total of 43,571 acres. Predicted full containment of the fires is July 7. Forty residences and 20 additional structures remain threatened.

Initial attack activity was heavy nationally with 442 new fires reported. Fourteen new large fires were reported, five in the Eastern Great Basin Area, four in the Western Great Basin Area, two each in the Southern and Southern California Areas, and one in the Rocky Mountain Area. Fourteen large fires were contained, eight in the Eastern Great Basin Area, two each in the Northern California and Southern California Areas, and one each in the Western Great Basin and Southwestern Areas.

Very high to extreme fire indices were reported in Arizona, California, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, New Mexico, Nebraska, Nevada, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming. (National Interagency Fire Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-1649-DR-PA is amended to add five counties eligible for Individual Assistance. (FEMA HQ)