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National Situation Update: Tuesday, July 4, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Weather Hazards for the Week

• Clusters of severe thunderstorms are possible across a large part of the CONUS from the Front Range and Central Plains to the Mid Atlantic and New England from July 3 through July 5.
• There is a high risk of wildfires over the Great Basin and parts of the Rockies.
• Severe drought will persist across the Southwest and portions of the High Plains.
• Severe drought will persist across southern Texas and the central Gulf Coast.

Significant National Weather

South:  Calm but very hot throughout the South on Tuesday. The main threat for rain will be on Wednesday across parts of southeast Texas and over the Florida Peninsula. The rain threat over southeast Texas will be with us for most of the week and flood watches remain for parts of that region. Tropical moisture may even increase the rain over the Florida Peninsula later in the week.
                                                                                                           
Northeast:  The threat of thunderstorms Tuesday is forecast from New England to the Middle Atlantic region. Most of the thunderstorm activity will be confined to the afternoon hours and some storms may become severe with hail and strong winds.

Midwest:  Look for thunderstorms from the central plains to the Ohio valley on Tuesday as a cold front moves slowly southward. A few storms could be severe in Ohio, Indiana, far northern Kentucky and parts of the western High Plains.

West:  Most of the Intermountain West will see afternoon thunderstorms on Tuesday. Lightning strikes may increase the fire danger. The West Coast will be dry but there will be some morning cloudiness over coastal sections of Southern California.(NWS, Media Sources)

Northeast Flooding Updates

No new significant river flooding predicted at this time.  Primary concerns are in Delaware Valley where sporadic rain could renew flooding in some areas.

In NY, Mohawk River continues to flood near Utica, may flood in Albany.

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) is mission assigned to help assess road damage in Wycoming County, Pennsylvania.

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) has been contacted regarding petroleum cleanup in some flooded areas of New York.

No significant shortfalls reported by FEMA Regions 2 or 3.

In New Jersey, a 200' section of a levee on the Delaware River in Stockton, New Jersey (Hunterdon Co) was breached July 1, damage assessed but cannot be addressed until rain stops and water recedes.  Stockton remains at risk for further flood damage.

New Jersey still has an estimated 4,270 residents evacuated from various communities.

Approximately 4,600 evacuated from the Binghamton, New York area.

ERT-A staffing continues for Pennsylvania, New York, and New Jersey.

FEMA State Liaisons located in NY and NJ Emergency Operations Centers (EOC). (FEMA Region II, FEMA Region III, NYEOC, PEMA media reports)

Tropical Activity

Atlantic: No tropical storm activity.
Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:  A well-defined tropical wave is in the Lesser Antilles oriented South-southwest to north-northeast.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms cover the Lesser Antilles and associated coastal waters.  Strong southwest shear should prevent any further development.  Best chance of rain should impact Puerto Rico midday Tuesday with a surge in trade winds behind the wave, possibly contributing to near gale conditions in the central Caribbean for Wednesday.. 
Eastern Pacific: No tropical storm activity.
Western Pacific: No tropical storm activity. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

PDAs are anticipated to begin in the Commonwealth of Virginia on July 5, 2006
PDAs in the State of Delaware for IA and PA are complete.
IA PDAs are in progress for Pennsylvania, PA PDAs should begin by July 10 (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

Bull Complex:  This 38,618 acre complex of lightning-caused fires (including the Bull - 21,198 acres and Cove Mountain - 17,420 acre Fires) is burning 25 miles northwest of St. George, Utah.  Eighty primary structures and 20 outbuildings are potentially threatened.  The community of Motoqua continues to be threatened.  The community of Gunlock has been evacuated.  Electrical and gas supply that had been shut off have been restored.  No structures have been destroyed.  The complex is ten percent contained.  The estimated date for full containment is unknown.

Heavy fire activity continued throughout the nation with 321 new fires reported. Four new large fires were reported: one each in Texas and Oregon and two in Idaho. Seven large fires were contained: two in California, three in Nevada, and one each in Texas and North Dakota.

Very high to extreme fire indices were reported in Arizona, California, Colorado, Minnesota, Montana, New Mexico, Nebraska, Nevada, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah and Wyoming. (National Interagency Fire Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

On June 30, 2006, the Governor of Delaware submitted a request for a major disaster declaration as a result of heavy rains and resultant flooding during the period of June 23-26, 2006.  The Governor is requesting Public Assistance for Sussex County, direct Federal assistance, and Hazard Mitigation statewide.

FEMA-1650-DR-New York: Amendment No. 1, effective July 3, 2006, amends the notice of a major disaster declaration to include:  Individual Assistance Program for the following areas:
Broome, Chenango, Delaware, Herkimer, Montgomery, Otsego, Sullivan, and Ulster Counties for Individual Assistance (already designated for debris removal and emergency protective measures [Categories A and B] under the Public Assistance program, including direct Federal assistance), and Oneida, Orange, Schoharie, and Tioga Counties for Individual Assistance. (FEMA HQ)