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National Situation Update: Sunday, June 25, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

South:  A weak low-pressure system with plenty of tropical moisture is forecast to move into the Florida Peninsula pushing showers and thunderstorms onshore and then inland over the Southeast. Meanwhile the stalled front lingers from the southern Appalachians to Texas providing a focus for more thunderstorms of its own. The low and the front both mean more chances for significant rain across the mostly dry Southeast. Rainfall amounts between 1 and 3 inches are expected with locally higher amounts through this evening across the parts of Southeast and Florida. Localized flooding is possible in the Appalachians and sections of the Carolinas due to the slow moving nature of this weather pattern. Thunderstorms are also in the forecast for the southern Plains and the Texas Panhandle south toward the Rio Grande.

Northeast:  With the stalled front and plenty of moisture available, rain and thunderstorms will continue to focus on the section of the Northeast from southernmost New England to western Virginia and West Virginia through the day adding to the flooding problems already worsening in the Mid-Atlantic including parts of New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania, Maryland and western Virginia. Tomorrow through Wednesday, the remnants of the front, an added influx of Atlantic moisture, and the tropical-like low-pressure system from out of the Southeast will combine to potentially expand the heavy rain and flooding threats to all of parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

West:  The general weather pattern over the nation is a large upper-level low pressure system over the eastern half of the nation with a ridge of high pressure aloft in the West. This ridge of high pressure is responsible for the very hot conditions that stretch from the Desert Southwest to California's Central Valley and now into the Pacific Northwest. Under sunny skies afternoon highs are forecast to range from the 110s in the Southwest to near 90 in western Washington. The last time Seattle was 90 degrees was August 9th, 2004. The last time Portland, Oregon reached 100 degrees was July 24th, 2004. Today both cities could hit 90 and 100 degrees respectively. Some locations in the West are under some kind of excessive heat warning or heat advisory. No rain is expected from the Pacific Northwest through the Great Basin. Isolated thunderstorms are in the forecast from southeastern Colorado through New Mexico and along the Mogollon Rim in Arizona. Some of the storms in Colorado and New Mexico could produce localized heavy rain and some flooding in arroyos and urban areas.

Midwest:  A vigorous upper-level weather disturbance will swing down across the Upper Midwest and into the mid-Mississippi River Valley. This disturbance will bring a good chance of thunderstorms, some severe, to sections of southern Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois today. Remnants from yesterday's thunderstorms will likely leave behind boundaries that will act as mini-fronts helping to focus new thunderstorms across the Midwest. At the same time the heavy, potentially flooding, rain threat taking shape in parts of the Northeast will extend westward into eastern Ohio and eastern Kentucky.  (NWS, Media Sources)

Officials Reopen 2 Roads In Grand Canyon

Some of the residents evacuated from scenic Oak Creek Canyon because of a 4,200-acre wildfire returned to their homes Saturday, while officials reopened two roads in the Grand Canyon.
Arizona Highway 89A and Highway 67 were closed earlier in the day because a 15,500-acre wildfire raised questions about whether would-visitors would be stranded in Grand Canyon National Park.
As fire activity lessened, the road closures were lifted Saturday night, said Bill Kight, fire information officer.

An unknown number of tourists were voluntarily escorted out of the Grand Canyon's North Rim. The North Rim, which is significantly more remote and less popular than the park's main South Rim entrance, remained open to visitors.  The blaze, which had not threatened any property, was allowed to burn since it was discovered June 8 in the Kaibab National Forest after a series of lightning strikes.
The closest buildings from the blaze were two miles away, and the fire was burning in the opposite direction, Kight said.

Elsewhere, a nearly 48,000-acre blaze in southwestern New Mexico's Gila National Forest was 23 percent contained Saturday. It had destroyed a cabin and was threatening about 80 other structures. It was started by a campfire, forest officials said.  Thunderstorms were forecast. "There's a mixed blessing there of getting some moisture, but also high winds that are associated with that," said Wayne Johnson, fire information officer.

In Southern California, a 15,000-acre wildfire in Los Padres National Forest was 85 percent contained and crews hoped to have it fully contained by late Sunday, a U.S. Forest Service statement said. The blaze 45 miles east of Santa Maria was started Monday by an electrical short circuit, and had destroyed two sheds and three oil company trailers.

Wildfires have charred nearly 3.2 million acres nationwide so far this year, well ahead of the average of just over 1 million acres by this time, the National Interagency Fire Center reported. Huge grass fires that swept Texas and Oklahoma this spring account for much of the increase.  (Media Sources)

Tropical Activity

Atlantic:  A broad area of low pressure is centered just north of Great Abaco island in the northwestern Bahamas and east of the Florida peninsula. Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the low and its associated shower activity are poorly organized at this time. This system still has the potential to become a tropical or subtropical depression within the next day or so as it drifts toward the west-northwest at about 10 mph.

An area of low pressure is centered about 750 miles east of Bermuda. Satellite imagery indicates that shower activity has increased in association with this feature. Some additional development of this system is possible over the next day or so as it moves west-northwestward about 10 mph.

Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:   No tropical storm activity.

Eastern Pacific: No tropical storm activity

Western Pacific: No tropical storm activity. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

Alaska Earthquake:  A light earthquake, with a magnitude of 4.8 on the Richter scale, occurred Saturday, June 24, 2006, at 10:16 pm (EDT).  It occurred approximately 15 miles ESE of Port Alsworth, Alaska and 157 miles WSW of Anchorage, AK at a depth of 62.1 miles.  There are no reports of damages or injuries and no requests for Federal assistance.  (FEMA Region X)

Elsewhere, there was no significant earthquake activity reported.  (United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

Current Situation:  Wildland fire activity was light with 138 new fires reported throughout the United States. One new large fire was reported in Utah and one large fire was contained in Texas. Very high to extreme fire indices were reported in Arizona, California, Montana, Utah, Colorado, Nebraska, New Mexico, Nevada, North Dakota, Texas and Wyoming.

Weather Discussion: Moisture will be increasing over portions of the West this weekend for a gradual increase in thunderstorm activity. Strong high pressure will also bring hot weather to much of the West. In Alaska, high pressure building over the state will bring warmer and drier weather to the interior.

Alaska
Parks Highway (Fairbanks Area Forestry, Alaska Division of Forestry): 105,500 acres at 45 percent contained.This fire is one mile southeast of Nenana, AK in black spruce, tundra and grass. Numerous residences, native allotments, recreational cabins, commercial property and utility infrastructure remain threatened. Weather forecasts predict a drying trend for the next few days. Smoldering and isolated torching were reported.

Arizona
Brins (Coconino National Forest): 3,977 acres at 20 percent contained. This fire is two miles northeast of Sedona in timber. Evacuations in the Oak Creek Canyon remain in effect and Highway 89A is still closed. Numerous residences, structures, endangered species, the Oak Creek watershed and Scenic Highway remain threatened. Extreme fire behavior with spotting up to a quarter mile was observed.

Colorado
Jolly Mesa (Glenwood Spring Field Office, Bureau of Land Management): 750 acres at 30 percent contained. This fire is three miles west of Newcastle in pinyon pine, juniper and grass. Dry fuels, low humidity and steep terrain are hampering containment efforts. Numerous structures, natural gas lines, high voltage powerlines and Colorado State Wildlife Area are threatened. Moderate fire spread with torching and isolated spotting was reported.
Mato Vega (Costilla County): 13,153 acres at 45 percent contained. This fire is 12 miles northeast of Fort Garland in pinyon pine, juniper and grass. Numerous residences, an FAA communication site and commercial resources remain threatened. The evacuation order for the Wagon Creek subdivision has been lifted. Highway 160 is reopened to traffic, under the control of pilot car. Single tree torching, smoldering and creeping were observed.

New Mexico
Bear (Gila National Forest): 47,194 acres at 10 percent contained. This fire is 17 miles northeast of Glenwood in mixed conifer. Numerous residences, wildlife habitat and historical cabins remain threatened. One recreational residence and one outbuilding were destroyed. Fire activity on the southwest corner remains a threat to portions of Willow Creek. Isolated torching and spotting were reported. Limited spread of the fire was due in part to higher relative humidity.

Utah
NEW Pot Hole (Northeast Area, Utah State Division of Forestry Fire and State Lands): 1,200 at 20 percent contained. Pot Creek Road is closed. Private land and several residences are threatened. Extreme fire behavior with running and torching was reported.
Lion Creek (Manti-Lasal National Forest): 1,530 acres at five percent contained. This fire is burning five miles northwest of Paradox. Rural homes, Buckeye Campground and timber are threatened. Road closures remain in effect for the fire area. The reduction in acreage is due to more accurate mapping. Smoldering fire behavior was observed.

Wyoming
Isabelle (Southern Medicine Bow National Forest): 1,200 acres at 10 percent contained. This fire is 25 miles southwest of Laramie in timber. Numerous residences and structures remain threatened. Poor access continues to hamper containment efforts. Moderate to low fire behavior with smoldering, creeping and single tree torching was reported. Poor access is hampering containment efforts. Moderate fire behavior with short runs and group torching were reported.  (National Interagency Fire Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)