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National Situation Update: Monday, May 22, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Be Prepared – Hurricane Season Begins June 1

Each year the National Hurricane Center (NHC), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) provide preparedness information to private citizens and public officials prior to the Hurricane season that begins on June 1. This year during Hurricane Preparedness Week (May 21-27, 2006), both federal agencies are providing information about hurricane hazards and preparedness measures on their websites ( http://www.fema.gov) and ( http://www.nhc.noaa.gov).

A hurricane is a type of tropical cyclone, which is a generic term for a low pressure system that generally forms in the tropics. The cyclone is accompanied by thunderstorms and, in the Northern Hemisphere, a counterclockwise circulation of winds near the earth's surface.

According to the NHC, an average of ten tropical storms develop over the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico each year. Many of these remain over the ocean and never impact the U.S. coastline; six of these storms become hurricanes. In an average 3-year period, roughly five hurricanes strike the US coastline, killing approximately 50 to 100 people anywhere from Texas to Maine . Of these, two are typically "major" or "intense" hurricanes (a category 3 or higher storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale ) which classifies tropical cyclones as follows:

Tropical Depression - An organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 38 mph or less.

Tropical Storm - Winds 39-73 mph.

Category 1 Hurricane — winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
No real damage to buildings. Damage to unanchored mobile homes. Some damage to poorly constructed signs. Also, some coastal flooding and minor pier damage. Examples: Irene 1999 and Allison 1995

Category 2 Hurricane — winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Some damage to building roofs, doors and windows. Considerable damage to mobile homes. Flooding damages piers and small craft in unprotected moorings may break their moorings. Some trees blown down. Examples: Bonnie 1998, Georges(FL & LA) 1998 and Gloria 1985

Category 3 Hurricane — winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings. Large trees blown down. Mobile homes and poorly built signs destroyed. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by floating debris. Terrain may be flooded well inland.
Examples: Keith 2000, Fran 1996, Opal 1995, Alicia 1983 and Betsy 1965

Category 4 Hurricane — winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failure on small residences. Major erosion of beach areas. Terrain may be flooded well inland.
Examples: Hugo 1989 and Donna 1960

Category 5 Hurricane — winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. Flooding causes major damage to lower floors of all structures near the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas may be required. Examples: Andrew(FL) 1992, Camille 1969 and Labor Day 1935

A HURRICANE WATCH issued for any part of the coast indicates the possibility that one could experience hurricane conditions within 36 hours. This watch should trigger your family's disaster plan, and protective measures should be initiated, especially those actions that require extra time such as securing a boat or leaving a barrier island.

A HURRICANE WARNING issued for your part of the coast indicates that sustained winds of at least 74 mph are expected within 24 hours or less. Once this warning has been issued, your family should be in the process of completing protective actions and deciding the safest location to be during the storm.

NOAA Recommended Basic Hurricane Safety Actions:

• Know if you live in an evacuation area. Know your home's vulnerability to storm surge, flooding and wind. Have a written plan based on this knowledge.
• At the beginning of hurricane season (June 1st), check your supplies, replace batteries and use food stocks on a rotating basis.
• During hurricane season, monitor the tropics.
• Monitor NOAA Weather Radio.
• If a storm threatens, heed the advice from local authorities. Evacuate if ordered.
• Execute your family plan.

(Source: National Hurricane Center , National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

Cool Weather in the North – Hot in the South

West:  Some showers and thunderstorms are forecast for southern California on Monday as a low pressure area moves inland along the Pacific Coast.

Highs will range from the 30s in the higher elevations of the Sierras to 100+ in the desert Southwest. Washington and Oregon will see highs in the 60s, while most parts of California will see 60s-70s.

Midwest:  Most of the Midwest will be dry and cool on Monday. The northern tier of Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio will see possible frost and freeze advisories.

Isolated severe storms could hit western Missouri. Scattered showers are forecast for most of the Great Plains. Scattered showers and storms could also hit western South Dakota, parts of Nebraska, parts of Kansas, and the Oklahoma Panhandle. 

Highs will range from the 50s in northern Ohio and Michigan to the 90s in southwest South Dakota and western Kansas.

South:  Some scattered rainfall is forecast for a large portion of the South in Tennessee, northern Georgia, western North Carolina, and South Carolina. Additional showers are forecast for south Florida.

Highs will range from the 70s in Tennessee and North Carolina to the 90s in Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Texas.

Firefighters fought several wildfires in New Mexico during the weekend as lightening was identified as the most probable cause of the fires. Fortunately the fires mostly occurred in unpopulated areas. Firefighters took advantage of light winds, low temperatures, and low humidity to gain control of the fires.

Sunny, hot and windy weather is forecast for most parts of Texas during Monday and Tuesday when highs are expected to be in the 90s in the Ft. Worth-Dallas area, 90s in Houston, 95 in the Rio Grande Valley, and 100+ in Harlingen. Winds will range from 5-15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

Northeast:  The Northeast will receive some relief from the extensive rainfall of the past week as a cold front will provide dry and windy weather for most of northern New York State and New England. Highs near the Canadian border will be in the 40s on Monday. Temperatures in other parts of the region will be in the 60s-70s. (NWS, Media sources)

Tropical Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

PDAs for Public Assistance are scheduled to begin in New Hampshire and Massachusetts on Tuesday May 23. (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

Initial fire activity was light nationally with 70 new fires reported. Two new large fires were reported, one each in the Southwest and Southern Areas. One large fire was contained in the Southern Area. Very high to extreme fire indices were reported in Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado and Utah.  (National Interagency Fire Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)