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National Situation Update: Sunday, April 16, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Outlook

Midwest: On the heels of Thursday night's F2 tornado in Iowa City, and Friday night's supercell thunderstorm (86-mph wind gust and golf-ball-to-tennis-ball-size hail) in Indianapolis, the severe weather threat continues through this Easter holiday weekend. The first round is moving through the Missouri Valley, namely, eastern Nebraska, Iowa, northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas, where hail-producing thunderstorms will rumble Saturday night and early Sunday morning. Near the junction of the surface low pressure, attendant warm front and dry line, some tornadoes are possible. This area of t-storms should spread across Iowa, northern Missouri, extreme southern Minnesota and both northern and central Illinois, including Chicago, overnight. Easter Sunday's severe threat should shift back into the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, from Illinois to Indiana, and southern Ohio, putting Indianapolis under yet another threat of dangerous thunderstorms.

Another aggressive storm system will slide into the Northern Plains Monday night, then into the Missouri & Mississippi Valleys Tuesday & Wednesday, potentially triggering more severe weather. This windy storm could also bring heavy snow to the Black Hills of South Dakota and heavy rains to other parts of the northern Plains.

South: Fire danger was high Saturday in the Carolinas, Florida, West Texas and western Oklahoma. In the Southern Plains it was particularly critical, given the west to southwest winds gusting to near 50 mph, at times. Hot, dry weather remains entrenched. While winds will slacken off considerably in West Texas, dry, hot southwest winds will blast through the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.

There could be numerous strong thunderstorms in North Carolina Monday afternoon and evening, bringing much needed rain to a State currently suffering moderate drought conditions. This front should bring cooler (i.e. more typical for April) temperatures to the Southeast by Tuesday or Wednesday.

West: A cold spring storm system will bring heavy mountain snow and a chilly valley rain from the Pacific Northwest to central California Saturday night into Easter Sunday. Winter storm warnings are posted for the Sierra, where 1-2 feet of snow looks likely above 5000 feet. Snow advisories continue in the Cascades and Siskiyous, where snow levels Sunday could range as low as 1000-3000 feet, something more typical of a mid-winter Pacific storm.

Rain over central California, including the Bay Area and Central Valley overnight Saturday, will continue into Sunday. Fortunately, this system will exit California by early Monday. While rain and high mountain snow is also expected in the Great Basin and northern Rockies, the heart of this storm system should hammer the northern Rockies Monday possibly through early Wednesday. Dry weather is expected along the beleaguered West Coast Monday through Wednesday.

Northeast: A frontal system will remain stalled over Virginia and West Virginia on Sunday. As upper-level energy from the Midwest storm system approaches, thunderstorms should generate in the warm Sunday afternoon air over West Virginia and western Virginia. Some of these storms may contain hail and brief strong wind gusts and may persist into the late evening hours as they propagate toward Chesapeake Bay.

Yet another round of t-storms, some of which could again be strong, is expected again Monday as the main core of upper-level energy swings through. A raw day could be in store in Boston on Monday, when northeast winds coming off the still chilly ocean waters could keep the mercury stuck in the 40s or low 50s at best. (National Weather Service, media sources)

California Flooding and Levees

After a brief period of rain and snow this weekend, the area of stressed levees and associated mountain watersheds of Northern and Central California are forecast to receive 7-10 days of mostly dry weather according to the National Weather Service.

River levels are gradually receding with all rivers reported below flood stage.   Scattered flooding and slides are reported this morning, unrelated to levees.

Northern and Central California rain is forecast to drop 2 to 3 inches of precipitation in the central valley from Saturday evening through late Sunday night. Some river levels in the northern Delta are forecast to rise slightly Sunday and Monday due to weekend precipitation while remaining several feet below flood stage.

All rivers are then forecast to drop further during clear weather next week.  The California Department of Water Resources (DWR) cautions that the Sacramento-San Joaquin levee complex will remain stressed for the next two to three months.

In Riverbank (Stanislaus County), heavy rain Friday night produced 20 inches of flooding and damage to six commercial structures and an estimated 20 homes.  A trailer park in Merced County remains evacuated due to flooding. 

The City of Oakland (Alameda County) reports six new slides with road closures.  Santa Cruz County reports a slow moving 100x300-foot slide that has damaged one home and threatens 13 others; voluntary evacuation notices have been issued. 

The City of Firebaugh (Fresno County) is reported stable following sandbagging and berm construction along the San Joaquin River.

 The State reports a total of over 400 homes damaged or affected by recent flooding and slides with more local assessments to be completed.  Sheltering continues in Stanislaus County for 50 residents, and other counties report single-digit sheltering as events develop.

The State Operations Center and Inland Region EOC remain activated at watch level this weekend.  The CA Department of Water Resources (DWR) Flood Ops Center remains activated 24 hours a day with reduced staff.  The San Joaquin County EOC remains activated 24 hours a day.

Storm Cleanup in Indiana

Friday's storms dropped damaging hail, and caused some street flooding in the Indianapolis area.  Strong winds battered buildings and trees in several communities.

Some of the worst damage from Friday's storms was reported in Hendricks and Montgomery counties, which the weather service said was struck by straight-line winds.
To the east of Indianapolis, in Williamstown on the border of Decatur and Rush counties, high winds caused serious damage to several mobile homes.

The storms brought large hail to Indianapolis and other parts of the state. Heavy wind knocked down trees and power lines in numerous areas in northwestern and central Indiana. (Media sources)

Flooding Problems in Pembina County North Dakota

Residents of Neche, North Dakota, a Pembina County community of about 440 assisted in a sandbagging effort early Saturday after an early morning rural road washout unleashed a torrent of water on the community. Overland flooding from the Red River was causing the problems in the county.

The North Dakota National Guard was activated by the Governor, and Guard troops and equipment were brought in to help with the flood fight.

All buildings within the town remained dry, but a farmstead and a rural restaurant were flooded.

Officials in the city of Pembina said the Red River had crested there, and conditions were improving. (Media sources)

Tropical Activity

There are no tropical disturbances in the Atlantic or Pacific Oceans. (National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No significant earthquake activity during the past 24 hours in the United States or its Territories. (Source: United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

Initial attack activity was heavy nationally with 373 new fires reported. Eight new large fires were reported, five in the Southern Area and three in the Eastern Area. Four large fires were contained, two in the Eastern area and one each in the Southern and Rocky Mountain Areas. Very high to extreme fire indices were reported in Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Massachusetts and Oklahoma.

Two homes were destroyed and about 100 homes had to be evacuated after a wildfire spread across the southwest portion of Amarillo, TX on Saturday. A spokesman for the Department of Public Safety in Amarillo reports no injuries in the blaze. Sustained winds of almost 40 mph and gusts as high as 50 mph helped spread the fire, which also destroyed several outbuildings.

More than 60,000 acres have burned in the Texas Panhandle this month. Fires in March in the Panhandle killed 12 people and scorched nearly a million acres.

Two state parks in New Mexico have been closed because of a spreading wildfire, and residents of several ranches and small towns around Moro, N.M. are being advised to leave. The Ojo Feliz fire in northeastern New Mexico was 40% contained Saturday and has charred an estimated 16,000 acres of grassland and ponderosa pine.

Extremely critical fire weather area has been issued Sunday for eastern New Mexico, eastern Colorado, southwestern Kansas, western Oklahoma, and northwestern Texas. (National Interagency Fire Center, NWS, media sources)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)