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National Situation Update: Friday, March 31, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Severe Spring Weather Continues on Friday

Midwest:  Severe storms are expected on Friday in the Midwest in the area from Tennessee to Ohio. The storms are expected to produce heavy rainfall, wind damage, hail, and will pose some threat of tornadoes.  Northeast Minnesota is expected to see cool temperatures and rain on Friday.

South:  Strong thunderstorms are forecast for areas of Texas, Oklahoma, and Tennessee on Friday as a storm system moves through the region. Additional storm systems are expected to bring more severe weather to the same area on Saturday and Sunday. High temperatures throughout the South on Friday will be mostly in the 70s-80s.

West:  The Southwest will see dry weather and warm temperatures on Friday. The Pacific Northwest will be hit by a new fast-moving storm system on Friday that will bring rain showers and mountain snow in the higher elevations. The wet weather in the Pacific Northwest is expected to continue as storm systems continue to move through California, Oregon, and Washington during the next several days. The Hawaiian Islands of Kauai and Oahu were expected to see showers and severe thunderstorms on Thursday and possibly continuing on Friday. Meteorologists indicate that Kauai and Oahu have set several records for the most rainfall for the month of March. For instance, Mount Waialeale on the Island of Kauai, has had over 84 inches (7 feet) of rainfall in March. The National Weather Service has issued flash flood watches and warnings for Kauai and Oahu.

Northeast:  The Northeast will see some rainfall on Friday in parts of New York, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia, but most of the region will experience warm temperatures and dry weather. A storm system moving eastward will bring colder weather with some rainfall on Saturday to New England and the Mid-Atlantic areas. (NWS, Media Sources)

Mid-West Storms

In the 24 hour period ending at 4:30 a..m. EST, Friday, March 31, the National Weather Service  (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has received 345 storm reports.

There were 24 reports of tornados in Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, and Missouri. Early damage reports include four homes destroyed and three people injured in Fillmore, MO and one home destroyed in Woodbury, IA. All data is preliminary and unconfirmed at the time of reporting.

During the same period there were 198 reports of hail, mostly in Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Kansas. A few occurrences were reported in Iowa, Arkansas, and Missouri. Hail ranged from dime-sized to golf-ball size. No damages were reported.

There were 123 wind reports, many with gusts in the 60 to 70 mph range. The majority of the reports came from Nebraska and Iowa. Preliminary damages are trees and power lines downed, vehicles blown off roads, and damage to residences and farm buildings. (NOAA, National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center)

Drought Conditions In the U.S.

The Rockies, Southwest, and California: The majority of the West received between 1 and 2 inches of rain this period. Most of the precipitation occurred outside of the drought areas, with the exception of the lingering abnormally dry conditions in the San Joaquin Valley of California. Low temperatures over the past month have helped to keep the drought conditions status quo for Arizona, making this an area to watch closely for deterioration over the coming weeks if conditions continue to be dry. In Colorado, the abnormally dry conditions in the southwestern corner of the state were expanded to cover the San Miguel, Dolores, Animas and San Juan river basin. Moderate drought was expanded westward to include the Upper Rio Grande river basin and the far southeastern corner of Utah.

The Plains and Midwest: Precipitation was scattered over the Plains and Midwest this drought monitoring period. This was another active week of improving drought conditions in Texas. In the southwestern part of the state, the abnormally dry conditions were retracted eastward removing that area out of dry conditions. Elsewhere in Texas, the extreme drought conditions in the panhandle were trimmed back based on local feedback and the NWS southern region's 60- and 90-day percent of normal maps. Lastly, the area in the south-central part of the state was retracted southward due to 1 to 2 inches of rainfall this drought monitoring period. Additional rainfall of 2 to 3 inches fell in this area after the cutoff for this drought monitoring period, therefore it was not taken into consideration for this week's depiction. This is certainly an area that will most likely see further improvements next period.

The East Coast: Overall, this area of the nation did not see much precipitation this period. In North Carolina, the moderate drought area was expanded westward to cover most of western North Carolina with the exception of the far western corner. Also in the central part of the state, severe drought conditions were introduced into the Tar, Neuse and Cape Fear River Basins. In Tennessee, the abnormally dry area was expanded westward to include the eastern half of the Cumberland Plateau. Elsewhere in the Southeast, the abnormally dry conditions along the Gulf Coast expanded across the state of Florida. Minimal amounts of rainfall have occurred across the state the entire month. Naples has received only 0.08 inch and is on track to possibly be the third driest March on record. The last rain event that impacted the state was in early February when some areas received as much as 2 to 4 inches of rain.

Alaska and Hawaii: In Hawaii, continued heavy rainfall over the islands this drought monitoring period warranted the removal of all abnormally dry conditions. This is the sixth consecutive week of excessive rainfall in Hawaii. The National Weather Service issued flood warnings for Maui and there were several other areas that have been placed under a flood watch. No changes were made to Alaska this week, as the abnormally dry conditions currently depicted are sufficient for this time of year.

Looking Ahead: Over the next 5 days (March 29 - April 2), an upper level pattern consisting of a trough in the west and a ridge in the east will dominate the Lower 48 States.  Several frontal systems are expected to make their way across the country, potentially bringing an increase in precipitation opportunities for the Pacific Northwest, the Plains, and Great Lakes.  Temperatures for the western third of the country are expected to be below normal, while the rest of the contiguous US is forecast to have normal to above normal temperatures.  Drier conditions are forecasted to continue for the Southeast and the East Coast.

Over the ensuing 5 days (April 3 - 7), the Pacific Coast, northern tier states, and western Great Lakes states are forecast to have wetter than normal conditions, while the rest of the US is expected to remain dry.  Conditions are favorable for coastal rain and inland snow in Alaska.  Below normal temperatures are anticipated for the West Coast and northeastern Alaska, while the rest of the country is expected to have normal and above normal temperatures.  The outlook for Hawaii continues to be wet for the forecast period.  (NOAA, National Weather Service)

Tropical Activity

There are no tropical disturbances in the Atlantic or Pacific Oceans that affect the U.S. or U.S. interests. (National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

There was no significant earthquake activity during the previous 24 hours that affected the U.S. or U.S. interests. (Source: United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

Current Situation: Wildland fire activity was moderate nationally with 260 new fires reported. Eleven new large fires were reported and 14 large fires were contained in the Southern Area. 

Weather Discussion: Critical fire weather area has been issued by the NWS for eastern New Mexico, southeastern Colorado, southwestern Kansas and Oklahoma, and northwestern Texas. The area will see strong winds, very low relative humidity, and long-term drought conditions on Friday.  (National Interagency Coordination Center, National Interagency Fire Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)