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National Situation Update: Tuesday, March 14, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant Weather Across The Nation

West: A low pressure system moving into northern California will produce heavy snows, in the Oregon Cascades, northern California mountains, Sierra Nevada, Sawtooths, Grand Tetons and Wasatch. Scattered showers and mountain snows will fall in Idaho, western Montana, western Wyoming, northern Nevada and northern California

Midwest: Gusty winds up to 45 mph will blow over the Great Lakes and lower Midwest producing lake-effect snow in the Upper Midwest, the Great Lakes and eastern Ohio.

South: The cold front will move off the Carolinas early this afternoon taking the showers and thunderstorms into the Atlantic so much of the South will be sunny and dry. Gusty winds up to 45 mph are forecast across the Southeast with peak winds over the Appalachians.

Northeast: The cold front will move off the East Coast early this afternoon taking the showers and thunderstorms over the Atlantic. The tight pressure gradient behind the front will produce strong, gusty winds. Much of the Northeast, except for northern New England will have winds gusting to 50 to 60 mph. The strong winds will move much colder air over the region with lake-effect snow forecast east of Lake Ontario in New York and extreme northwest Pennsylvania. (NWS, media sources)

Texas Wildfires

Texas Forest Service (TFS) reported that Sunday (03/12), was possibly the single worst day in Texas wildfire history. In a 24-hour period, the State of Texas responded to 162 new fires that burned 50,589 acres.

Many homes were threatened during the wildfire outbreak on 03/11 in the Panhandle. The Texas Civil Air Patrol (TXCAP) is flying over four (4) counties to assist in determining the number of homes saved, as well as the number of homes that were lost. There were 1,191 persons evacuated. There were 17 aircraft sorties flown and 5,525 gallons of fire retardant dropped.

Currently, there are nine (9) active fires burning.  Since 12/26/2005, more than 10,138 fires have burned 3,488,482 acres. For the same period, there have been 380 homes lost and 4,123 homes saved.

The State of Texas has 25 Aircraft, 47 Dozers, 11 Engines and approximately 373 State personnel in direct support of wildfire operations.  Texas aircraft have now flown a total of 6,004 sorties, dropping a total of 4,653,265 gallons of fire retardant.  The Texas Army National Guard (TXARNG) is activating 7 dozers with crews and support elements to support fire suppression operations.

To date, the TXCAP has now flown 1,589 hours and detected 253 fires.  Three (3) missions were flown on 03/12. One (1) fire was detected.  Four (4) missions are scheduled for 03/13/2006. (Joint Field Office (JFO) FEMA-1624-TX Austin TX)

Report on Severe Weather in the Central U.S., March 10-13 2006

Event and Impacts

• A strong storm system moving across the central part of the country produced severe weather, flooding and heavy snow from late Friday March 10th through Monday March 13th.
• The worst of the severe weather was from early Sunday morning through Sunday night. Severe storms produced numerous tornadoes Sunday across Illinois and Missouri. Survey teams were on the ground from numerous NOAA National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs). The tornado in Pettis County Missouri, near Sedalia, may be greater than F3 on the Fujita scale.
• The Moline, Illinois Airport had a gust of 107 mph at 8:48 pm EST Sunday. Training of thunderstorms (storms that continually track over the same area) in the greater Quad Cities (Davenport and Bettendorf in Iowa and Moline/East Moline and Rock Island in Illinois) and Muscatine, Iowa/Illinois area Sunday night resulted in 1.5 to 5.6 inches of rain in less than six hours. Flash flooding produced major street flooding and submerged hundreds of houses, businesses and cars. Rushing water up to two feet deep moved numerous cars.
• Up to 15 fatalities and 64 injuries have been reported so far. Nearly all of the fatalities occurred in Missouri; the injuries were in Missouri and Illinois. The latest death was reported in northwest Ohio late Monday morning, as a tractor-trailer was blown off US Highway 30 in Van West County. The driver was ejected from the cab and the truck rolled over him.
• Extensive tornado damage occurred south of Sedalia, Missouri on Sunday. Other notable damage occurred in southern Leavenworth County (65 homes received minor to major damage), in downtown Kansas City (8 buildings damaged including some at the Kansas City Wheeler Downtown Airport grounds). WFO Springfield Missouri reported 60 homes damaged or destroyed.
• A tornado caused major damage in the Springfield, Illinois area Sunday. 23 minor injuries have been reported. Major damage then occurred in the town of Riverton in Sangamon County. On Sunday night, power was out to most of Springfield, the Illinois state capital city of 100,000 people. As of Monday afternoon, power had been restored to most of the homes and businesses.
• Widespread flooding was reported in Davenport, Scott County, Iowa late Sunday. Sink holes on streets and flooded buildings were reported. Hundreds of structures flooded in Quad Cities. Numerous cars were submerged and moved. (Lawrence County, Indiana).

NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) Operations

• From Friday evening March 10th - through 530 pm EDT Monday March 13th, 35 NWS WFOs east of the Rockies issued a total of 440 Tornado Warnings, 951 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings, 147 Flash Flood Warnings, and 33 Special Marine Warnings.
• Preliminary reports over that period included 135 Tornadoes, 146 reports of Damaging Winds (58 mph or greater), and 632 reports of Damaging Hail (3/4 inch diameter or greater) - with 45 reports of Large Hail (2 inch diameter or greater). At least 117 of the Tornado reports verified warnings. Preliminary average lead time for Tornado events was 17.6 minutes, and 51 of the Tornado events had lead times of 12 minutes or greater.
• Numerous survey teams were out investigating Monday. An NWS Quick Response Team (QRT) - for a possibly greater than F3 tornado was sent to Sedalia, Missouri (Pettis County). WFO Pleasant Hill (Kansas City) will conduct a press briefing at the NOAA building in Kansas City on Tuesday, March 14 at 4 pm EST. QRT-qualified storm assessors were at three other locations Monday as well. (Excerpt from National Weather Service Report)

Volcano Activity

The current Color Code for Alaska's Augustine volcano is ORANGE.

Low-level eruptive activity continues at Augustine Volcano. There continues to be periods of prolonged volcanic tremor and small volcano-tectonic earthquakes. Block-and-ash-flows, rock avalanches, and rock fall originating from the summit lava dome and lava flows continue to be recorded by the seismic network, particularly at the east flank station.  (United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Volcano Observatory)

Tropical Weather Outlook

There are no tropical disturbances in the Atlantic or Pacific Oceans. (National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

There have been a number of earthquakes in northern Alaska during the last 24 hours ranging in magnitude from 3.0 to 4.5.  There are no reports of damage.

There was a strong magnitude 6.8 earthquake off the coast of Seram Indonesia at 1:57 am (EST) March 14, 2006. There were no immediate reports of damage or a tsunami. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center reported "This earthquake is located outside the Pacific. No tsunami threat exists to coastlines in the Pacific. However - earthquakes of this size sometimes generate local tsunamis that can be destructive along coasts located within a few hundred kilometers of the earthquake epicenter. Authorities in the region of the epicenter should be aware of this possibility and take appropriate action. This center does not have sea level gauges outside the Pacific so will not be able to detect or measure a tsunami if one was generated. Authorities can assume the danger has passed if no tsunami waves are observed near the epicenter within an hour of the earthquake." (USGS Earthquake Hazards Program, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center,  media sources )

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 2 (On a scale from 1 to 5).

March 13, 2006: Nationally, fire activity was light with 168 new fires reported throughout the states. Six new large fires were reported: one in Arkansas, two in Oklahoma, and three in Texas. One large fire was contained in Oklahoma. (National Interagency Fire Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)