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National Situation Update: Friday, March 10, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Hawaii Rain

A dense low pressure system over the Hawaiian Islands is producing heavy rainfall Thursday and into Friday prompting National Weather Service (NWS) Flash Flood Warnings and Watches for the entire island chain. There is focused concern for already inundated areas of Windward (northeast) Oahu, Maui and Kauai affected by flooding and slides on March 1-3.

A dense band from the system is forecast to continue dropping heavy, torrential rainfall in concentrations of 3 to 5 inches per hour through Friday, followed by lighter showers Saturday and a clearing trend. A Flash Flood Warning was posted for Kauai, Niihau and the Big Island through 9:30 p.m. EST Thursday, and a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for all islands through Thursday night.

Hawaii County ( Big Island ) Civil Defense reports several roads partially closed around Hilo and one mile of Highway 11 closed due to strong runoff.

The State remains under a Governor's emergency declaration signed March 2. The Hawaii State EOC in Honolulu is activated 6:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. HST daily and may increase staffing to 24 hours if events warrant. The American Red Cross has opened a shelter at the Brigham Young University of Hawaii campus in Laie (northern Oahu ) for potential storm evacuees. State and local agencies are currently addressing previous flooding and potential new impacts to roads and services.

The FEMA Pacific Area Office is in daily contact with Hawaii State Civil Defense, and the FEMA Region IX Duty Officer in Oakland , CA is monitoring. All immediate response requirements are being met at the State and local level. No Federal assistance has been requested. (FEMA Pacific Area Office)

Thursday's Severe Weather in the South and Midwest

Numerous weather advisories issued by the NWS Thursday because of severe weather in the South and Midwest expired or were cancelled Thursday evening as conditions improved. FEMA has received no requests for Federal assistance.

Media reports of weather impacts include the following:

• In Ashdown , AK a lightening-caused fire is blamed for the death of one elderly resident.
• In the Little Rock , AK area winds damaged a dozen mobile homes.
• A tornado caused building damage to a school in Sunflower County , MS but no injuries.
• The Mississippi Emergency Management Agency has received reports of several homes damaged in Bolivar and Panola Counties.(FEMA Region 4, media sources)

Stormy Again Friday Evening for the South and Midwest

South: The South for the most part will get a respite from severe thunderstorms and heavy rain. A few showers and thunderstorms may linger over the Southeast (one or two could turn severe over southern Georgia , southern Alabama and northern Florida ) while the southern Plains and Arkansas become quite windy. Friday night and Saturday, as the next storm comes from the southern Rockies and crosses the central Plains any thunderstorms may be confined to eastern Oklahoma , Arkansas and Tennessee . Yet another storm system will come out of the Southwest and into the south-central states later Sunday, possibly initiating a second potent bout of severe thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday.

Midwest: After the heavy rains from southern Illinois to southern Michigan , the exiting storm system will bring strong westerly winds to Michigan and the eastern Ohio Valley Friday morning. Gusts could top 50 mph near Lakes Huron and Erie , including the Cleveland area. The next storm will quickly come out west Friday night. A several-inch stripe of snow will accumulate from northern Nebraska to northern Minnesota . Rain and some strong thunderstorms will be reignited from southwest Missouri to southern Michigan and the eastern Ohio Valley. Much of this area is already wet so more flooding is possible. A third storm system will head from Kansas to Michigan Sunday night and Monday with more snow from Nebraska to the Upper Midwest and a new round of strong thunderstorms and heavy rain from Missouri to Lower Michigan and the Ohio Valley.

Northeast: Strong southwest-to-west winds will prevail from east of Lake Erie to east of Lake Ontario including northwest Pennsylvania and much of Upstate New York. Gusts could reach or exceed 60 mph. Later in the day, the strongest winds will shift into New England where gusts could reach 40 mph.

West: The Pacific Northwest will be cold and showery into the weekend with snow levels down to a few hundred feet above sea level. Meanwhile, the dry and warm Southwest will finally turn quite cold and stormy as showery rains, thunderstorms and heavy snow push from California to the southern Rockies and Deserts. Later Monday and Tuesday, a new Pacific storm will arrive along the West Coast. (NWS, media sources)

Volcano Activity

Beginning at approximately 9:30 a.m. EST March 8, 2006, seismicity at Augustine Volcano increased markedly and has become more or less continuous. The amplitude of the seismicity is high, with the signal nearly saturating several instruments. There are no indications of substantial ash emissions at this time. Taken together, these data probably indicate accelerated rates of magma extrusion, in the form of increased dome growth, vigorous lava flows, or a combination of both. Extrusion of this kind creates local hazard, but is not likely to generate explosions, significant ash emissions, or a tsunami. The current Color Code for Augustine is ORANGE.  (United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Volcano Observatory)

Tropical Activity

There are no tropical disturbances in the Atlantic or Pacific Oceans. (National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

Initial attack activity was heavy nationally with 392 new fires reported. Four new large fires were reported, and six large fires were contained in the Southern Area. Very high to extreme fire indices were reported in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Texas and Kansas.

Red Flag Warning dangerous fire conditions are forecast for the eastern half of New Mexico, and along a broad line from southwest Texas to southwest Oklahoma. Critical wildfire conditions are forecast for the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. (NWS)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)