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National Situation Update: Saturday, March 4, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

The West Remains Active This Weekend

West:  The California storm will quickly move well inland through the northern Rockies and northern high Plains on its way into the central U.S. From the Bitterroots to northeastern Montana, snowfall will in the 3-to-8-inch range. The West Coast will briefly quiet down and dry out before the next storm arrives tonight and then sticks around into Monday. Even as the snow ends over the interior Northwest late today, a new round of rain will edge in northwest California and southwest Oregon and spread up and down the West Coast. Northern and central California will again have the potential for an additional 1 to 5 inches of rainfall and additional snow in the Sierra will be measured in feet.

Northeast:  A Canadian Maritime storm will keep the Northeast windy today and New England windy tomorrow. Daytime northwest winds will gust as high as 35 to occasionally just shy of 40 mph. Some intermittent flurries and snow showers may affect the mountains and areas near Lakes Erie and Ontario.

Midwest:  A much weakened storm from out of the West will arc through the Midwest. The upper-level disturbance attending the storm will move across the Dakotas today and the Upper Midwest tomorrow before swooping southward through the Ohio Valley tomorrow night. North Dakota, Minnesota and Wisconsin have the best chance for a few inches of accumulating snow. Showers, developing in the Ozarks and mid-Mississippi Valley will sweep eastward into the Ohio Valley.

South:  The South will be fairly quiet through early week. A meager storm passing by to the north could bring a few showers to the southern Ozarks today, Tennessee tomorrow and the Carolinas Monday.  (NWS, Media Sources)

FEMA Regional Activity

FEMA Region IX:
RIX-CA-01,  Potential Flooding from Levee Breaches, March 3, 2006, 8:00 pm EST
On February 24, 2006 after observing first hand vulnerabilities during a tour of Sacramento-San Joaquin River Valley Levees and receiving additional information from the US Army Corp of Engineers (USACE), California's governor declared a State of Emergency for California's Central Valley Levee System.

California Office of Emergency Services (CAOES) and FEMA personnel are working in coordination with local operational area managers in identified high-risk areas.  (California Office of Emergency Services, FEMA Region IX Office, Unites States Army Corp of Engineers)

RIX-HI-01, Storms and Flooding, March 3, 2006, 3:00 pm EST
Concentrated rainfall along Oahu's windward (northeast) slopes Wednesday and Thursday resulted in widespread flooding, slides, minor damage to homes, moderate damage to roads and bridges, displaced residents, sewage releases, disrupted services and school closings.  No fatalities or injuries are reported. 

The Hawaii State Civil Defense is monitoring and receiving damage assessments.  All immediate response requirements are being met at the local level.   No request for Federal assistance has been received.  (National Weather Service, Hawaii State Civil Defense, FEMA Pacific Area Office and Media Sources)

2006 Could Be Worse Than The Past Two - Now Is Time To Prepare For Hurricane Season

Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center, is warning coastal residents to prepare now for the 2006 hurricane season.

The next season may be worse than the past two, which resulted in an increase in the number and intensity of hurricanes that hit U.S. shores. The reasons: a historic cycle, the advent of La Nina -- unusually cold Pacific Ocean temperatures that spawn more hurricanes in the Atlantic -- and possibly global warming or other environmental causes.

The message from the National Hurricane Center is very consistent. We are urging every individual, every business, every community to have a hurricane plan and have it in place now before the hurricane season gets here. Everybody on the Atlantic coast, the Gulf Coast and the Caribbean.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has a team that will put together the first forecast on May 22. But there are a lot of other people who are doing a seasonal hurricane forecast who say it will be a very busy season. What is important to acknowledge is that we all agree we're in this active period, and meteorologists say that we're going to be in this period for another 10 to 20 years. We've had a lot of major hurricanes since 1995. We had a lot of hurricanes in the 1950s and 1960s but not so many in the next 25 years.

There's special concern now with the people living in Mississippi and southeast Louisiana. Many are living in trailers and tents. They're going to need a longer lead time to evacuate. They need to know, those people who are in temporary housing, they need to know right now where they would go because another hurricane is very, very possible.  (NWS, Media Sources)

Mississippi Study Looks At Why Levees Flooded

Computer models only go so far. So engineers will soon be making waves in a 4-foot-wide model of the canal between New Orleans and neighboring Jefferson Parish.
They want to learn what part waves played in breaching a floodwall on the 17th Street Canal, where Hurricane Katrina's storm surge pushed water from Lake Pontchartrain - and where water poured into the city after the storm hit on Aug. 29.

The model of wood, dirt and water will be used to verify results from four computer models, each looking at different forces of waves and currents, said a spokesman for the U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center's Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory.  If the numerical and physical models match up, it will validate computer models of the other canals where levees broke.

The 1-to-50 scale model is the latest in a collection of models dating back to 1927 at the Mississippi laboratory formerly known as the Waterways Experiment Station.  This one, built in the past six weeks, represents about a one-mile stretch along Lake Pontchartrain and a half mile of the 200-foot-wide canal itself, said the research hydraulic engineer overseeing the project.  To ensure its accuracy, surveyors measured the canal's depths and the height of the surrounding land from the mouth of the canal.  The model will eventually include representations of the U.S. Coast Guard station, the nearby marina and the Old Hammond Highway Bridge, structures that could have affected how waves reacted with the canal's floodwalls.

Using 24 gauges on the model, researchers will try to see if waves started breaking inside the canal and whether the storm surge caused underwater turbulence that damaged the floodwalls.  The work is part of the corps' Interagency Performance Evaluation Task Force, which is investigating why levees and floodwalls in the New Orleans area failed during Katrina.

Normally a model like that of the 17th Street Canal would take four or five months to build, but the task force is under a tight deadline - it must have a final report ready June 1, the first day of hurricane season.

Though water monitors in the New Orleans area generally were destroyed long before the peak of the hurricane, computer models indicate that Lake Pontchartrain had 10-foot waves during the storm.  That is being used to set up the model's wave machine, which will recreate wave actions throughout the day of the storm. Between 30 and 40 variations on basic setup will be run, including some designed to see how debris in the water might have affected the waves.

Waves and water heights change during a storm, so the researchers will systematically move the 70-foot-long wave machine to reflect that.  The information will be given to other researchers who will calculate what impact the wave pressures would have had on the floodwalls.

The geotechnical people will take it from there and see what actually happened on the ground.  Water will be put into the enclosed system next week and the modeling work should be finished in another six weeks.  (Media Sources)

Officials To Unveil Prototype Of Emergency Text Messaging System

Mississippi State Homeland Security officials this month will unveil a prototype of an emergency text messaging system that would provide reliable communications to first responders during catastrophes like Hurricane Katrina.

The system would make it possible for text messages to be sent over Mississippi Public Broadcasting's FM radio signals to first responders.  Mississippi would be the first state with such an emergency communication system, officials said.

Communications have been a concern for security experts since radios were jammed with calls after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and there was no way to warn firefighters inside the buildings that the structures were collapsing.
Concerns in Mississippi were compounded after Katrina slammed the coast on Aug. 29, leveling cellular phone towers and knocking out communications over broad areas of the Gulf Coast region.

The messages would be sent through FM broadcasters, which are more durable during natural disasters than satellite and cellular communications.  FM broadcasters came through quite nicely and most of the stations were up and running during Katrina. It's a very robust infrastructure.  The system could send messages statewide or to a particular area.  The developer plans to use a standard commercial FM receiver chip that can be inserted into pagers, smoke detectors, cell phones, PDAs, and other devices to allow them to receive the messages.

The technology will be primarily for first responders now, but in the future could be adapted to send messages to any device with a digital display.

Edwin L. Worthington, who heads the state's Homeland Security office, said in a written statement that it is ``critical that Mississippi develop this project since many areas have limited alert coverage and because of our vulnerabilities to natural disasters. Our ability to communicate simple but important and timely messages throughout the state during active emergencies is critical.''   (Media Sources)

Volcano Activity

Unrest continues at Augustine (Alaska) Volcano. The frequency of small volcano-tectonic earthquakes has increased slightly over the past several days and rockfall and avalanche events originating from the summit area continue to be recorded by the seismic network..  The current Color Code for Augustine is ORANGE.

Seismicity at Korovin (Alaska) Volcano remains slightly above background. There are no indications that an eruption is imminent. The current Color Code for Korovin has been increased to YELLOW.  (United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Volcano Observatory)

Tropical Activity

Tropical Depression (TD) 01w, located approximately 276 miles east-southeast of Palau, has tracked northwestward at 3 mph. Within the next 24 hours, the storm is expected to be 252 miles southwest of Yap. Maximum significant wave height is 10 feet. There are no other tropical disturbances in the Atlantic or Pacific Oceans. (National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

A moderate earthquake (magnitude 5.0) struck approximately 62 miles southwest from Anchorage, Alaska at 6:11 pm EST. No reports of damages or injuries.

A light earthquake (magnitude 4.7) struck approximately 758 miles southwest from Anchorage, Alaska at 7:40 pm EST. No reports of damages or injuries.

There were no Tsunamis generated by either Alaska earthquake.

No other significant earthquake activity during the previous 24 hours that affected the U.S. or U.S. interests.  (USGS Earthquake Hazards Program ,NOAA West Coast and Pacific Tsunami Warning System )

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

Friday, March 3, 2006; National Preparedness Level - 2
Current Situation:  Initial attack activity was heavy nationally this week with 1,503 new fires reported. Fifty-one new large fires were reported, 41 in the Southern Area, four in the Rocky Mountain Area, three in the Eastern Area, two in the Southwest Area, and one in the Northern California Area. Twenty-six large fires were contained, 20 in the Southern Area, three in the Rocky Mountain Area, and one each in the Eastern, Northern California and Southwest Areas. Very high to extreme fire indices were reported in California, New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado, Texas, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, South Dakota, Wyoming and Illinois.

Outlook:  Dry and windy conditions will extend from southeastern California, across much of the Four-Corner states, and into western Kansas today associated with a developing low pressure system. Windy conditions will also develop over the Dakotas extending into the central Plains. Another windy day is on tap for Saturday for much of the northern and central Plains, and wind with dry conditions for the eastern Four-Corner region extending into the southern Plains. Winds will weaken on Sunday.  (NIFC, NICC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)