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National Situation Update: Monday, February 27, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Storminess Lumbering Into West

West:  Wet, windy weather is beginning to assault the West with storminess likely to expand and persist for several days. The heaviest rain through early this morning-locally up to 2 or 3 inches-is expected to soak western Washington and northwest California. During the day, northern and central California will take the brunt of the precipitation with several inches likely in the Sierra Nevada where flood watches are posted. Snow levels in the Sierras will be quite high, 7000 feet or more. Farther north, heavy snow seems a good bet in the northern Washington Cascades (where snow levels will be around 4000 feet by late afternoon) and in Idaho's Sawtooth Range. Strong, gusty winds are forecast to whip over coastal and mountain locations, especially the Sierra Nevada.

Midwest:  A quasi-stationary front stretching from South Dakota to the lower Midwest will separate winter from spring in the Plains and Midwest. North of the front, areas of very light snow and flurries will extend from North Dakota through the Great Lakes into northeast Ohio. South of the front, sunshine and spring-like warmth will bathe the central Plains.

Northeast:  Chilly weather will persist in the Northeast with snow showers and flurries widespread across the interior of New York state, western and northern Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Accumulations, though, will be spotty and limited. Lows tonight will be below zero in northern New York and far northern New England.

South:  Sunshine will dominate the South today with high temperatures ranging from somewhat below late February means on the Florida Peninsula to noticeably above west of the Mississippi River… well above, in fact, in the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. The day will dawn frosty in the Southeast with lows in the 20s throughout the Carolinas, Tennessee, eastern Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia. Wildfire danger in Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle is likely to be significant as winds become gusty and humidities remain low.  (NWS, Media Sources)

Series Of Storms Beginning On Sunday in CA

A series of storms headed for Northern California are likely to bring high winds and several inches of rain.  A warm front off the coast should hit somewhere north of San Francisco, bringing 2 to 5 inches of rain through Tuesday along with winds of 25 miles an hour, gusting to gale forces of 40 or 50 miles per hour.  The Weather Service issued a high wind watch for yesterday and today in the Bay Area, advising mariners to stay ashore and residents to put away outdoor furniture and tie down loose objects.

After a brief respite, more storm fronts are expected to arrive tomorrow and late Wednesday, continuing to soak the Bay Area. Forecasters don't expect the storms to bring the kind of severe flooding and overflowing rivers seen on New Year's Day, but the Solano County Office of Emergency Services has warned of possible flooding in the Delta area, urging residents to take steps to protect their homes and property.

"Do not wait until the rain begins," the agency said in a written statement.  Paul Harper, manager of the Bethel Island Municipal Improvement District, said workers have begun patrolling the levee system, and will continue to do so through at least today.  (NWS, Media Sources)

Emergency Assistance For Flood Control Levees in CA

This week, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers notified local counties the deadline for applying for rehabilitation assistance for damages incurred to flood control structures sustained from Dec. 23 - Jan. 6, 2006.  Under Public Law (PL) 84-99, public sponsors that include cities, counties and other government entities may ask the Corps to help supplement state and local efforts to repair both flood damaged federal (Corps-constructed, locally operated and maintained) and non-federally constructed flood control projects.

In most cases, federal projects maintained by local sponsors can receive 100 percent federal funding from the Corps and 80 percent funding for non-federal projects.  Subsequently, the sponsors are required to operate and maintain the levees in accordance to federal regulations.

During the major floods of 1994/95, the San Francisco District assisted in $12 million of rehabilitation and flood fighting services. For the1997/98 floods the Corps provided $3 million in assistance.

A key Corps of Engineers' emergency operations mission, we've been doing this for a long time," said Duke Roberts, the San Francisco District's Emergency Management chief. "The district has provided flood rehabilitation assistance to the region for more than 20 years."  Upon receipt of public sponsor requests, the Corps will schedule inspections with the sponsors.  (USACE)

NOAA Expands Coastal Storm Inland Flooding Prediction Tool

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Coastal Services Center and National Weather Service, working in partnership with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and Sea Island Software, Inc., have developed an enhanced inland flooding forecast component to HURREVAC a computer program used by government emergency managers. These updates will address the growing threat of damages due to flooding caused by coastal storms and will allow emergency management personnel throughout New England to quickly compare flood inundation maps with forecasts of rainfall and river levels.

The enhanced version of HURREVAC includes real-time NOAA National Weather Service river forecast information from 1,052 forecast points in a total of 22 states, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Additionally 49 new maps have been added to HURREVAC, bringing the number of maps covering coastal states from Maine to Texas to a total of 346. The expansion will improve the capabilities for coastal emergency planners to help facilitate better planning, decision-making and response efforts to manage impacts of inland flooding. NOAA is currently developing 35 additional inundation maps for Maryland, Pennsylvania and Virginia.

Derived from the words hurricane evacuation, HURREVAC is a restricted use computer program used by more than 4,450 official government emergency managers. The software combines FEMA and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers hurricane evacuation study data with current weather forecast data from the NOAA National Weather Service. This data allows users to estimate evacuation times as hurricanes and other associated hazardous weather approach.

"We are very pleased to be able to continue the expansion of the services that HURREVAC brings to coastal managers," said retired Navy Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. "One of NOAA's central missions is to serve society's needs for weather and water information so that we can enhance the ability to plan and respond to natural events such as flooding caused by coastal storms." (NOAA)

Is New Orleans Ready for Hurricane Season?

The Army Corps of Engineers is still working on the levees, with June 1 target date for completion. The force of Hurricane Katrina broke the levees six months ago, flooding New Orleans with water from Lake Ponchartrain, the industrial canal and other sources. The Army Corps of Engineers has been charged with rebuilding the levees, and it's a daunting task. Contractors are working 24-hour days, building levee walls as high as 17 feet. And this time, they're reinforcing them with concrete backings. But hurricane season starts in just three months. Will they be done in time?

"It's a tight schedule," said Fred Young, who is Corps project manager for the levee reconstruction program. "Supplies are tight and labor's tight down here, and we're just trying to do the best we can, and 1 June is our goal."
 
Critics point out that the government is only repairing breaks in the levees that it can see.
"We're doing repairs on the breaches, but there are many, many, many miles of levee that we don't have any idea of," said Ivor van Heerden, deputy director of the Louisiana State University Hurricane Public Health Research Center. There's little chance the repaired levees will protect the city from strong storms, van Heerden added, perhaps leaving New Orleans just as vulnerable as it was before Katrina -- which peaked as a category five hurricane and was a strong category three storm when it made landfall.  "The whole system is susceptible to flooding with a category two [hurricane]," said van Heerden.  (Media Sources)

Volcano Activity

Alaska's Augustine volcano remains at Color Code: ORANGE. Seismicity remains at low levels but is still above background. Small avalanches and rock falls continue to be recorded.  There has been no significant change for several days. (United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Volcano Observatory)

Tropical Activity

There are no active tropical disturbances in the Atlantic or Pacific Oceans. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)