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National Situation Update: Friday, February 3, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Eastern and Western Storms

South:  The next low-pressure system will begin to develop in the vicinity of the Texas-Louisiana line today and head in to the Carolinas by nightfall. Rain and thunderstorms will spread from the ArkLaTex into the Southeast where a few of the thunderstorms could turn severe over coastal South Carolina, South Georgia and northern and central sections of Florida. Tomorrow the storm will race northward from North Carolina to Upstate New York and the rain and thunderstorms will taper off over the Southeast. Colder air will move rapidly into the Southeast on gusty northwest winds. Some snow will develop over the Cumberland Plateau and the southern Appalachians.

Northeast:  One storm, zipping from the eastern Ohio Valley to southern Quebec, will bring a shot of rain to the Northeast with a wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain mostly confined to Maine. Right on its heels, a second storm will race northward from central Virginia to southeast Ontario and southern Quebec from tomorrow into the first part of Sunday. This increasingly windy storm will again remain predominately a rain event but the rain will change to snow behind the storm from West Virginia to Upstate New York as much colder air rushes in.

Midwest:  Weak low pressure tracking from the northern Mississippi Valley to southern Lower Michigan will continue to draw cold air southward into the north-central states. Snow showers will fall over the Upper Midwest while rain showers mix with snow over the southern Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley. Tomorrow and early Sunday, as an intensifying storm tracks northward from central Virginia to southern Quebec, accumulating snow could fall across eastern Kentucky, Ohio and southeast Michigan while lake-effect snow hits Upper Michigan and northernmost Wisconsin.

West:  One more storm will take aim on the Northwest later today and tomorrow. Strong coastal and mountain winds are likely and rainfall will range from .5 inches to 2.5 inches from northern California to the Olympic Peninsula. Snow levels will rise to 4500 feet in the Washington Cascades, 6500 feet in the southern Oregon Cascades and Siskiyou and 7000 feet in the northern Sierra tonight before lowering again. The snow will spread from the Cascades and northern Sierra to the Bitterroots, Teton and Wasatch tomorrow. The mountains could see another foot of snow.  (NWS, Media Sources)

Regional Activities

Tesoro Company officials, Alaska Department of Environmental Conversation and U.S. Coast Guard responded. 

At the time of the grounding the tanker was carrying 3,987,942 gallons (94,951 barrels of Vacuum Tower Bottom Blend (VTBB).  VTBB has a thick consistency, similar to asphalt. Approximately 75 gallons were spilled during the incident.

No Stafford Act response is anticipated but FEMA Region X has a staff presence in Alaska for an unrelated incident and available if necessary.   (FEMA Region X)

Louisiana:  Tornado Hits International Airport
On February 2, 2006, at 4:00 am EST, a tornado damaged the Louis Armstrong International Airport in New Orleans, LA.  The airport was closed at the time.

Concourse C, operated by American Airlines, sustained wall and roof damage and two jetways were rendered inoperable.  The tornado also knocked out power to the airport. 

The airport reopened at 7:00 am EST on emergency power. Electricity was restored at 12:15 pm EST.   (FEMA Region VI, NICC)

Twisters Add Insult to New Orleans' Injury

Tornadoes tore through New Orleans neighborhoods Thursday that had been hit hard by Hurricane Katrina just five months earlier, collapsing at least one previously damaged house and battering the airport, authorities said.

Electricity was knocked out for most of the morning at Louis Armstrong International Airport, grounding passenger flights and leaving travelers to wait in a dimly lit terminal powered by generators. The storm also ripped off part of a concourse roof, slammed one jetway into another, and flipped motorized runway luggage carts.

Wind tore an exhaust vent off another roof and blew it through a concourse window. A metal ladder was wrapped around a light pole, and part of a glass wall fell and crashed onto the tarmac. Airlines using the damaged concourse were moved temporarily to other gates.

The line of severe thunderstorms moved across the area several hours before dawn. a National Weather Service spokesperson said it appeared the damage was caused by two tornadoes, one that hit the airport and another that moved into New Orleans.  (NWS, Media Sources)

Government Revises Tornado Ratings Scale

The government is changing how it categorizes tornadoes after finding that it doesn't take 300 mph winds to disintegrate homes and turn cars into missiles -- a 200 mph twister can do just as much damage.

The National Weather Service said Thursday it had changed the Fujita Scale, a three-decade-old system of ranking a tornado's strength, to align wind speeds more closely with actual damage.  "It was apparent that many of the speeds used in the estimates were too large, said Joe Schaefer, director of the service's Storm Prediction Center. "The scale guiding wind speeds wasn't in tune with reality."

The change was introduced at the American Meteorological Society meeting in Atlanta. However, the new system will not fully go into effect until February 2007, giving weather scientists time to adjust to it.

Under the old system, created in 1971, an F-5 tornado -- considered the most powerful of tornadoes -- was capable of destroying a typical frame house, with wind speeds estimated at 261 mph to 318 mph. Since then, engineering studies have shown that much slower winds could cause the same damage.

Under the new system, an F-5 tornado -- which can disintegrate a strong frame house after lifting it off its foundation or badly damage reinforced concrete buildings -- has wind speeds of at least 200 mph.

Because the new system still uses actual tornado damage to estimate wind speeds, officials said it is not likely that the new system's lower wind speed rating for the F-5 tornado will result in more tornadoes being classified with the nation's top tornado rating.

The old system rated tornadoes only based on damage to homes. The new system classifies tornadoes based on damage to 28 other types of structures, including trees, mobile homes and other types of buildings.  "If a tornado went over a row of trees and didn't hit a house, there was no way to estimate the scale," Schaefer said.  The Fujita Scale Enhancement Project report is available at: http://www.wind.ttu.edu/F_Scale/default.htm (Media Sources, Wind Science and Engineering Research Center/Texas Tech University)

Alaskan Augustine Volcano Update

Current Level of Concern Color Code: ORANGE.  Seismic data indicate that eruptive activity continues intermittently and has changed little in character or intensity over the past 24 hours. Today's satellite imagery indicates that the continuous ash plume is extending east-southeast at an altitude below 11,000 ft. Eruptive activity is characterized by low-level explosions, pyroclastic flows, and sustained production of ash.

Further explosive activity producing ash clouds to altitudes over 25,000 feet may still occur with little or no warning. AVO is monitoring the situation closely and the observatory is staffed 24/7.  (NOAA/NWS, Alaska Volcano Observatory,  Media Sources)

Tropical Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

A minor earthquake occurred at 8:47 pm EST on Thursday, February 2, 2006. The magnitude 3.3 event has been located 23 miles north of Seattle, and 9 miles west of Everett, Washington.  There are no damage reports and no tsunami generated.   (United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, West Coast and Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)