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National Situation Update: Sunday, January 29, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Rainfall in the Forecast for Many Parts of the U.S.

West:  Two storm fronts are expected to bring considerable rain and windy weather to the Pacific Northwest on Sunday and Monday and again on Tuesday and Wednesday. The first storm on Sunday is expected to drop 4-8 inches of rain in the coastal regions of Washington, Oregon and northern California. Flooding and mudslides will be a threat. The higher elevations can expect considerable amounts of snowfall. As the first storm moves rapidly eastward into Montana, Idaho and northern Nevada on Monday, the second storm will bring additional rain and wind to the Pacific Northwest starting Tuesday night and continuing on Wednesday. The Southwest including Southern California, Arizona, and New Mexico will continue to see dry weather during the weekend and the early part of next week. 

South:  A storm system will move into the northern Gulf area on Sunday and Monday bringing rain and some snowfall in the higher elevations.

Midwest:  A storm system will move eastward on Sunday bringing rainy and windy weather to the Ohio Valley. Upper Michigan may see some snowfall. Rainfall on Monday is expected to be light in the area from Michigan to southern Ohio and Kentucky. High temperatures in the Plains, Great Lakes area, and the Ohio Valley are expected to rise during the first part of the week to above average levels.

Northeast:  The storm system moving eastward from the Midwest will bring rainy weather to New York, New England, and the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday and Monday. Some snow could fall in northern New York and northern New England. The Chesapeake Bay area may see some wet snowfall on Monday night and Tuesday. (NWS, Media Sources)

Another Hurricane Added to the 2005 List

Forecasters studying data from the July 2005 Tropical Storm Cindy have found a pocket of wind that hit 75 miles per hour, therefore it has been reclassified as a hurricane. That increases the Atlantic Ocean hurricanes total for the 2005 season to 15. Cindy made landfall on July 5, 2005, causing an estimated $160 million in insured damage along the Gulf Coast.

The total season for 2005 had already broken all records for named storms and hurricanes. The previous record number of hurricanes was 12 in 1969.  (Media Sources)

Alaska's Augustine Volcano Continues Eruption

Alaska's Augustine Volcano continued to erupt Saturday following several other blowups that rained specks of ash more than 100 miles away. The uninhabited island volcano in south-central Alaska erupted six times on Friday and Saturday after 10 days of relative calm.  On Saturday, ash continued to stream out of the volcano, reaching heights of almost six miles.

The explosions prompted weather service officials to issue a warning for pilots in the area. Alaska Airlines canceled six flights from Seattle WA, Portland OR, and Los Angeles CA Friday night, but resumed service Saturday morning.

The latest eruptions were similar in size to major explosions in mid-January that dusted the Kenai Peninsula with a coat of ash. Augustine has vented off and on since early January. The volcanic activity is likely to continue for several days or weeks. (Alaska Volcano Observatory, FEMA Region X, Media Sources)

Tropical Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Public Assistance PDAs are scheduled for 17 counties in Oregon beginning on January 30, 2006, as a result of Severe Storms and Flooding from mid-December 2005 through January 22, 2006.(FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

The NWS Storm Prediction Center indicates a critical fire weather area on Sunday for much of western Texas/southern New Mexico and a portion of northern Texas/southwestern Oklahoma. The primary conditions in these areas will see sustained winds from 20-30 mph and minimum relative humidity levels from 10-20 percent. These areas have also experienced long term severe drought and have received very little short-term rainfall.

On Monday, critical fire weather will persist in the western Texas/southern New Mexico areas as sustained winds of 15-25 mph will continue along with warm temperatures and relative humidity around 15 percent.  (NIFC, NICC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

The Joint Field Offices for FEMA-DR-1616-ND and FEMA-DR-1615-KS will close January 31, 2006.

The JFO for FEMA-DR-1622-MN will close February 10, 2006. (FEMA HQ)