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National Situation Update: Friday, January 13, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West: The next in a series of frontal systems is moving ashore over Washington, Oregon and northern California. Some locations may see up to three or four inches of rain with the potential for flooding and mudslides. Snow levels will range from 4500 feet in the northern Cascades to 6000 feet in the northern Sierra.

Midwest: A low and associated frontal system will move out of the Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley. The front will produce thunderstorms, some with hail and gusty winds. The cold air behind the storm system will change the rain to snow from the Mississippi River to Michigan, Indiana and western Kentucky by this evening.

South: The front extending from the low in the Midwest will produce strong thunderstorms to move across the South overnight and Friday. Heavy rain and strong-to-possibly severe thunderstorms will sweep across Alabama, Georgia and the Florida Panhandle during the day and into the Carolinas by this evening. Damaging winds, hail and even isolated tornadoes are possible. It will turn much colder behind the front associated and cities like Nashville and Atlanta may even see some snow showers late Friday, early Saturday, with some accumulation in the southern Appalachians. Gusty winds will keep the fire danger high during the day on Friday from the southern Plains to Texas.

Northeast: Expect an unseasonably mild day across the Northeast, but with rain moving into the area from the Midwest later today. Rain will increase tomorrow from eastern Virginia to the Hudson Valley and New England could see rainfall above two inches. (National Weather Service and Various Media Sources)

Augustine Volcano

On January 12, 2006 the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) reported that the level of earthquake activity at Augustine Volcano had declined since the eruptions on  January 11 but remained elevated above background. The current Level of Concern Color Code has been lowered from Red to Orange.
The volcano continues to steam vigorously. Field crews reported seeing steam and minor ash emissions from a new vent on the 1986 lava dome and estimate that the top of the plume is 8000 to 10,000 ft above sea level. Field crews confirmed mudflows on the flanks of the volcano. These flows are the likely source of false reports of new lava flows on the volcano.

AVO scientists have been to the volcano to perform helicopter-based thermal image surveys, collect ash samples, and upgrade instrumentation. AVO continues to monitor the volcano closely with staff in the office 24 hours a day and will issue further updates as new information and analyses become available. See http://www.avo.alaska.edu for the latest information

There is no indication that an eruption similar that which occurred Tuesday is imminent, but one could occur with little warning. (Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO))

NASA Prepares For Return of Stardust Capsule

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Stardust mission is nearing Earth after a 2.88 billion mile round-trip journey to return cometary and interstellar dust particles back to Earth.

The capsule is scheduled to return on Jan. 15. Several events must occur before scientists can retrieve cosmic samples from the capsule landing at the U.S. Air Force Utah Test and Training Range, southwest of Salt Lake City. On Jan. 15 at 12:57 a.m. EST, Stardust will release its sample return capsule. Four hours later, the capsule will enter Earth's atmosphere 410,000 feet over the Pacific Ocean. The capsule will release a drogue parachute at approximately 105,000 feet. Once the capsule has descended to about 10,000 feet, the main parachute will deploy. The capsule is scheduled to land on the range at 5:12 a.m. EST.

The velocity of the sample return capsule, as it enters the Earth's atmosphere at 28,860 mph, will be the fastest reentry of any human-made object on record. It surpasses the record set in May 1969 during the return of the Apollo 10 command module. The trajectory runs from Crescent City, to Mt Shasta, California and then through Winnemucca and Elko Nevada, and finally to Western Utah. On Sunday morning at 1:56 a.m. PST people in the Northern California, Oregon, Washington, Northern Nevada, Southern Idaho and Western Utah should be able to see some part of this man made meteor.  It may be also be possible to hear the sonic boom "rumble" if it is not too far away.

After the capsule lands, if conditions allow, a helicopter crew will fly it to the U.S. Army Dugway Proving Ground, Utah, for initial processing. If weather does not allow helicopters to fly, special off-road vehicles will retrieve the capsule and return it to Dugway. Samples will be moved to a special laboratory at NASA's Johnson Space Center, Houston, where they will be preserved and studied. Scientists believe the cargo will help provide answers to fundamental questions about comets and the origins of the solar system. For information about the Stardust mission on the Web, visit:
http://www.nasa.gov/stardust (NASA, Jet propulsion Lab)

NOAA Predicts Weak La Niña

Weak La Niña conditions are predicted in the tropical Pacific just in time for spring, but National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) scientists stress it is too early to know how this could affect springtime and summertime weather patterns in the United States. La Niña is the periodic cooling of ocean waters in the east-central equatorial Pacific, which impacts the typical alignment of weather patterns.

On Thursday January 12, 2006, scientists at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center released the latest El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion, which highlights the early stages of a weak La Niña episode developing in the tropical Pacific and, for now, expected to remain in place for three to six months. Yet the full impact of this weak event is yet unknown. Jim Laver, director of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, the lead government agency on El Niño/La Niña monitoring and forecasting, said "The strength of La Niña's impacts depends on the strength of the La Niña's event."

Wayne Higgins, NOAA's principal climate specialist at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center said, "One thing, however, is for certain. La Nina was not the cause of the early January rains in the West and wildfires in the South." He added, "While La Niña can produce similar patterns, there is no indication that these jet stream winds are related to the developing weak La Niña."

La Niña events recur approximately every three to five years. The last La Niña occurred in 2000-2001 and was a weak event.

NOAA will continue monitoring this event and report on any potential impacts as the event progresses. The next ENSO Diagnostic Discussion will be posted on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center Web site on February 9.

Through the emerging Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), NOAA is working with its federal partners and nearly 60 countries to develop a global monitoring network that is as integrated as the planet it observes.  (NOAA Magazine)

Tropical Activity

There is no tropical activity affecting U.S. interests in the Atlantic

In the South Pacific Tropical Cyclone (TC) 06P (Tam) has formed near 17.6S 172.1W (approximately 200 nm southwest of Pago Pago, American Samoa) has tracked east-southeast at 20 mph over the past 6 hours. TC 06P continues to slowly increase in intensity. Based on the current forecast TC 06P will continue to move to the east-southeast away from America Samoa. (Source: USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

A light earthquake occurred at 11:10 pm (EST) on Wednesday, January 12, 2006. The magnitude 4.0 event was located off the coast of Puerto Rico, 104 miles east northeast of Carolina PR. There were no reports of injuries or damage. (United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)