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National Situation Update: Thursday, January 5, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West: A low pressure system and associated front will move into the Pacific Northwest producing heavy rain in western Washington and showers in northwest Oregon, northeast Washington, northern Idaho and northwest Montana. Snow is expected in the Washington Cascades at elevations above 4,500 feet in the north and 7,000 feet in the south. Gusty winds are forecast for the Washington and Oregon coasts and through the Columbia River Gorge. Most of the West will remain dry with a strong ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft over the Great Basin. In Southern California, a Santa Ana wind will produce temperatures in the 70s along the Southern California coast and in the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts.

Midwest: Lake-effect snow showers are forecast from Michigan to Ohio as cold air sweeps south. Across the plains conditions are expected to be dry and windy.

South: The region will be dry with the tail end of a cold front passing through followed by a cooler airmass.

Northeast: A low pressure system and associated front will move over Northern New York State and New England producing rain, rain mix, and snow. Significant accumulations will be limited to the Adirondacks and Green Mountains where some areas will pick up four to eight inches of snow.

Nevada Storm Aftermath

The Nevada Division of Emergency Management reports an estimated 400 homes and 500 businesses in the Reno-Tahoe region damaged or affected by storm flooding and high winds between December 27 and January 3.  The Governor’s office reports an estimated $15 million of road and bridge damage.  On Tuesday afternoon Governor Guinn declared a state of emergency for five adjoining counties – Carson, Douglas, Lyon, Storey and Washoe. 

Sierra Pacific Power reports approximately 100 customers remain without power in the Lake Tahoe area after storm damage to transmission lines cut off power to 15,000 customers on Sunday.  Remote, rugged terrain hinders access and repair of transmission lines.

The NWS forecasts mostly dry conditions in the affected area with a chance of precipitation on Friday.  No warnings or watches are posted.

The state EOC remains activated during daytime hours. No state emergency declaration has been issued at this time. A FEMA Region IX State Liaison is assigned at the State EOC in Carson City. (FEMA Region IX)

California Storm Aftermath

California Office of Emergency Services (OES) has requested joint FEMA-State PDAs of the adjoining north coast counties of Marin, Mendocino, Napa and Sonoma in response to recent storm damage.  These are anticipated to be the most affected counties among 23 included in the Governor’s state of emergency declarations on Monday and Tuesday.  The State reports one fatality from the storms; media outlets report up to eight fatalities.

Pacific Gas & Electric reports 26,000 customers remain without power due to downed lines and poles with remaining outages concentrated in Humboldt and San Luis Obispo counties.  An estimated cumulative 1.5 million customers incurred outages at some time during the four-storm period of December 27 to January 3.   The utility reports nearly 500 poles and 400 transformers were damaged and 265 miles of power lines were downed by high winds and falling trees and branches.

In Sacramento County, approximately 25 residents remain evacuated from leveed Twitchell Island as work crews attempt to secure a boil leak and strengthen the levee; concern remains among local and State officials that the levee may fail.  Other levees of the Sacramento Delta continue to undergo maintenance and monitoring.

On Monday, January 2, the Governor declared a state of emergency for Del Norte, Humboldt, Mendocino, Napa, Sacramento, Sonoma and Trinity counties.  More counties were added on Tuesday, January 3; Butte, El Dorado, Lake, Lassen, Marin, Nevada, Placer, Plumas, San Joaquin, San Mateo, Sierra, Siskiyou, Solano, Sutter, Yolo, and Yuba; additional counties may be included in subsequent declarations.  PDAs were requested Wednesday, January 3 for Marin, Mendocino, Napa and Sonoma counties.

All immediate response requirements are being met at the local and state level.  The FEMA Region IX Regional Response Coordination Center (RRCC)is activated at level 3, with Duty Officer Watch. No request for Federal Stafford Act assistance at this time. (FEMA Region IX)

Texas and Oklahoma Fire update

Texas:

• Since December 26, there have been 207 fires burning approximately 245,359 acres.  For the same period, there have been 239 homes lost (reduced from 278 previously reported due to more detailed investigation of damaged areas) and 258 homes saved.
• Multiple local and state agencies (Texas Department of Transportation and Texas Forest Service are providing direct fuel and maintenance support to Volunteer Fire Departments), Civil Air Patrol (CAP), US Forest Service (USFS), National Weather Service (NWS).  The American Red Cross (ARC), and the Salvation Army (SA) are supporting operations.  
• Unofficial deaths reported in Texas is four. The State of Texas in the last 24-hour period responded to 48 fires statewide.  One home was lost and eight homes were saved.  Three citizens were evacuated.  Texas aircraft flew 221 missions dropping in excess of 257,340 gallons of fire retardant.  Texas has received out of state support from Wisconsin, Alabama, Tennessee, Louisiana, Florida and the US Forest Service. 

Oklahoma

• Thirty-three Oklahoma Counties have experienced wildfires since last Tuesday.  Fire activity today has been light.  Since 1 November 2005, more than 353,139 acres have burned and more than 220 houses and businesses have been destroyed.
• Local responders, Oklahoma Military Department (OMD), Oklahoma Department of Agriculture (ODA), Food and Forestry (OFF), Bureau of Indian Affairs (BIA), and US Forest Service.  Firefighting teams from Alabama, Florida, North Carolina, and Tennessee.   State Volunteer Organizations Active in Disasters (VOADs) are assisting. The American Red Cross and the Salvation Army are operating canteens and Emergency Response Vehicles (ERVs) to support first responders.  The ARC is also assisting those displaced with hotel rooms and vouchers. Oklahoma Southern Baptist Disaster Services are providing meals  and Methodist Care Teams are providing assistance. 
• The State is reporting one fatality since 27 December as a result of wildfires.  The State has had a total of four fatalities since November due to wildfires.  There have been reports of minor injuries to firefighters with one injury requiring hospitalization. (FEMA Region VI)

NOAA Outlook For The Southern Plains Shows High Fire Danger Persists

The southern Plains will remain at risk of wildfires through the first week of the New Year as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts mild temperatures, low humidity and strong winds in combination with drought-stricken land.

"Although cooler temperatures are expected in the southern Plains through Friday, dry northwesterly winds and the continued drought will keep the area prone to wildfires. This fire threat is expected to increase this weekend as temperatures warm back up with dry southwesterly winds," said Phillip Bothwell, fire weather expert for the NOAA Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla.

Factors fueling these winter fires include:

• Drought. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor, issued by NOAA and partner agencies on Thursday, shows the driest conditions in the nation lie across central and eastern Texas, central and eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas where the drought is described as "severe" to "exceptional."
• Dry fuels. Grass and other vegetation have been starved of rain and snow. No precipitation is forecast through the weekend and the coming winter months also may not be helpful. Drought in the southern Plains is forecast to "persist or intensify" through March, according to the latest U.S. drought outlook by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
• Mild temperatures. While temperatures will cool somewhat by midweek from their recent record levels, forecast highs after Tuesday will remain 5 to 10 degrees above average into Friday with even warmer temperatures for the weekend.
• Low humidity. Dry air will be transported by westerly and northwesterly winds from the central and southern Rockies.
• Wind. Breezy conditions and gusty winds help to fan existing flames.(NOAA Magazine)

Tropical Activity

Tropical Depression Zeta is about 1,075 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. TD Zeta is moving to the west at 12 miles per hour and a turn to the northwest is expected during the next 24 hours. TS Zeta poses no threat to land.

There is no tropical activity in the Pacific Ocean. (Source: USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No significant activity to report affecting the Unites States or its territories. (Source: United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

PDAs are scheduled for today in Tarrant, Wise and Palo Pinto Counties in Texas.(FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

On January 4, 2006 the President signed a major disaster declaration (FEMA-1622-DR-MN) for the State of Minnesota for damages caused by a severe winter storm on November 27-29, 2005. Public Assistance was authorized for the counties of Big Stone, Clay, Lac Qui Parle, Lincoln, Norman, Stevens, Traverse, Wilkin, and Yellow Medicine Counties. Additional designations may be made at a later date after further evaluation. 

On January 4, 2006 the President signed a major disaster declaration (FEMA-1621-DR-ND) for the State of North Dakota for damages caused by a severe winter storm on November 27-30, 2005. Public Assistance was authorized for the counties of Cass, Ransom, Richland, and Sargent Counties. Additional designations may be made at a later date after further evaluation. ( FEMA HQ)