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National Situation Update: Monday, January 2, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

In Texas and Oklahoma, temperatures there will be lower than New Year's Day, and relative humidities higher, but gusty winds will maintain significant wildfire danger. Red Flag Warnings are posted for Eastern Oklahoma and the northeastern corner of Arkansas. There are Fire Weather Watches for most of Oklahoma and Arkansas, as well a central and east Texas.

The NWS reports that a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for the burn areas of Santa Barbara, Ventura, San Bernardino, Orange, San Diego, Riverside and Los Angeles Counties through Monday afternoon.  A second and much stronger storm system will affect all of the burn areas in California through Monday afternoon.  NWS forecasts between 6 and 8 inches across higher elevations and between 8 and 16 inches along the south facing coastal slopes. The threat of flooding and mudslides will be significant.

Flood Warnings have been cancelled for the Napa River but remain in effect for the Russian River. Farther north, showers will blanket the Pacific Northwest while heavy snow falls in the higher mountain ranges from the Sierras eastward to the Wasatch and Tetons and northward into central Idaho. (NWS)

Texas and Oklahoma Wildfires

Wildfires raged across Oklahoma, Texas and New Mexico on Sunday. Drought conditions accompanied by strong winds and extremely low relative humidity have created extremely threatening conditions over a wide area of the Southwest.

During the past 7-10 days, wildfires have burned approximately 50,000 acres in Texas and Oklahoma, destroying at least 100 homes and businesses. New fires are continuing to develop. Media reports indicate at least 4 deaths have resulted from the wildfires.

The National Weather Service indicates that weather conditions through Monday will continue to produce extreme fire danger. Forecasters indicate that strong winds (20-30 mph), extremely low relative humidity (approximately 10%), and above average temperatures (highs in the 80s) will continue at least through most of Monday.

Dozens of fires burned across the dry Oklahoma landscape as the wind gusts reached 50 mph. Wildfires have struck in Oklahoma City OK, where several neighborhoods have been evacuated with at least 3 homes burned and 200 homes threatened.  Oklahoma is committing air ground resources to a fire in Creek County about 16 miles south of Oklahoma City in an area that has approximately 1,300 houses. Another major fire is reported near Guthrie, about 50 miles north of Oklahoma City. Media reports to include an interview with the Oklahoma Governor indicate fires are now contained.

By 12:00 noon on Sunday, firefighters in Texas had responded to at least 32 wildfires including a 22,400-acre blaze that threatened 200 homes near Carbon, about 125 miles west of Dallas. Crews flying over West Texas to assess the damage Sunday afternoon reported the tiny communities of Ringgold and Kokomo, together home to about 125 people, had essentially been wiped out by flames.

The Texas State Operations Center (SOC) is at Level I (Emergency Conditions) to coordinate response to the increased threat of wildfires in the state. A State spokesperson indicated that one home had been destroyed by fire, but that 32 homes had been saved. State officials are telling media representatives that fires are being contained.

The State of Texas reports that all available fire-fighting resources have been mobilized to support local jurisdictions. Texas reports that they are utilizing the following resources: 82 aircraft, 85 dozers, 15 fire engines and approximately 460 State personnel. Texas has requested and received out of state support from firefighters from Wisconsin, Alabama, Tennessee, Louisiana, Florida, and the US Forest Service. The State Department of Transportation and Forest Service are providing fuel and maintenance support to local fire departments to ensure they will be able to continue their firefighting missions. Texas NG continues forward support with 2 UH-60s and 2 CH-47s, but the aircraft are standing by awaiting missions; 3 UH-60 Louisiana aircraft are now identified and will depart tomorrow en route to Texas.

The Governor of Oklahoma has also requested assistance from firefighting crews from other states. Firefighting teams from Alabama, Tennessee, and Nor?th Carolina are on scene.   Florida Teams will arrive Monday and Tuesday.  The Oklahoma NG has deployed 2-UH-60’s and 1 CH-47 helicopters with crews (12 soldiers on State Active Duty) to support firefighting efforts of the local officials. The Oklahoma NG has not requested additional soldiers from their state or any other state for support.

The American Red Cross is also assisting in Oklahoma by providing Emergency Response Vehicles for firefighter hydration, processing applications, and providing damage assessments. 

Although planes and helicopters are available for firefighting response, the high winds and heavy smoke from existing fires have grounded them at times. The high winds and sparks from existing fires are also feeding the spread of new fires.

National Guard Bureau is working to identify additional firefighting-capable aircraft that could mobilize under Emergency Assistance Agreement Compact (EMAC) if required. 

In Hobbs, New Mexico, officials evacuated a nursing home, casino, community college and several neighborhoods as firefighters battled spreading grass fires on the western edge of the town of 29,000.

The Governors of Oklahoma and Texas have requested Federal Emergency declarations. (Region VI, media sources)

California Flooding

Another Pacific storm brought rain, gusty winds, and high surf to most of the San Francisco Bay area Sunday.   In northern California, the storm will bring significant snowfall to elevations above 3000 feet.  In the Sierra, the snow level will be above 7000 feet. High river levels are forecast to continue in the region due to runoff from recent storms. 

The Sacramento Weir continues to send water into the Yolo Bypass. The Russian River at Guerneville is not expected to drop below flood stage until at least Monday morning.

The storm system began moving through central and southern California Sunday night bringing strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall with the potential for flash flooding.  The heaviest rainfall is expected on coastal slopes.  The NWS is now forecasting up to 16 inches on the Ventura Mountains. 

There are no verified reports of significant damage from the storms of Friday and Saturday. More detailed information will be available in 2 to 3 days.

Delta Levees critical issues at this time are as follows:

• The Wright-Elmwood Tract in San Joaquin County along Fourteen Mile Slough.
• The District Engineer reported a leak that was repaired by local crews and is abated for the immediate time but requires more resources (250,000 sandbags) and crews to fully address. DWR will begin flood fight operations this morning.
• Over topping at Van Sickle Island in Solano County is still being evaluated. DWR will evaluate the area this morning.
• The wave washing damage on Brannan Island near Spindrift Marina has been rocked and stabilized.

The City of Isleton continues to monitoring issues and potential levee breaches; CCC crews completed sandbagging operations around homes.In addition, the CHP reported water overtopping a levee along the Consumnes River in the City of Wilton at Green Road and Jeffcott Road. Per Sac Metro Fire Dispatch, CHP did an overflight and determined no evacuations necessary.

Road Closures reported by the state include:

• US 101 is closed in several locations from Sonoma County to Del Norte County.
• SR1 is closed in four locations from Marin to Sonoma County.
• SR 20 is closed from Fort Bragg to Willits.
• I-80 is closed in both directions from SR 89 to Stateline due to a mud slide near Donner. At this time I-80 estimated closure both directions for an additional 24 hours, and east-bound could be 24 hours beyond that.
• Hwy 49 is closed due to mud slides from the Nevada-Yuba county line to Sierraville.
• Hwy 20 closed in several locations due to mud slides and flooding.

The state reports 28 shelters are available in the northern counties, with 375 persons utilizing 19 of the open shelters. Most county EOCs have been de-activated.  Del Norte, Humboldt, Mendocino, and Solano County EOCs are open ?during the day shift only and on duty officer status at night. The SOC, Inland REOC, and Coastal REOC remain activated on a 24-hour basis.

Twenty-five counties have issued local declarations.  Six of the counties have requested a State Declaration and two of them have included a request for a Federal Declaration.  The State is in process of securing data to support State assistance to the impacted counties. 

There is no request for Federal at this time.

A FEMA Liaison is located at the state EOC for coordination purposes. (Region IX)

Nevada Flooding

A Flood Warning has been issued for the Truckee River from Sparks to Nixon NV from early Monday morning through Monday night. Minor flooding is forecast from Sparks downstream to Nixon beginning early Monday morning. From one to three inches of rainfall is expected in the Truckee River Basin below 7500 feet Sunday night through Monday morning.  Runoff from this precipitation is expected to bring the Truckee River back slightly above flood stage beginning early Monday morning at Sparks through Monday night at Nixon.  Only minor flooding is expected and stages will remain well below those experienced on New Years Eve.

Interstate 80 remains closed west of Reno and all four downtown Reno Truckee River bridges were closed during the storm event. 

Media reports minimal damage in downtown Reno, moderate damage to a number of industrial businesses in Sparks and evacuation of five mobile home parks in the Reno-Carson City area.  No major slides reported in Carson City at the Waterfall Fire area (homes in the immediate area were evacuated).  

Insufficient storm drains caused flooding in low lying areas in Carson City.  In Douglas County, local media reported small mud or rock slides, but no major problems.

State reports many road wash-outs - Hwy 395 closed near Genoa, several small bridges destroyed in Storey County, two lift stations out of service in Washoe County, several public water and sewer systems out of service, minor damage to public schools, and portions of the Sparks Industrial area remain flooded.  In addition, over 100 housing units are reported with flood damage. 

The State EOC remains activated.  At this point, Nevada anticipates being able to handle the situation with available resources and has requested no outside support.  The state has deployed over 500 hand crews.  The state is assessing the storm damage. 

The Governor may declare a State of Emergency. All immediate response requirements are being met at the local and state level.  

No request for Federal assistance at this time.  FEMA Region IX has a State Liaison at the state EOC in Carson City. (Region IX)

Other National Weather

Dangerous thunderstorms, including the risk of tornadoes, will threaten portions of the South Monday. The greatest probability of storms with large hail and strong, damaging winds—and quite possibly tornadoes—will blanket Georgia and South Carolina. The overall threat will extend northward into Tennessee and southern North Carolina, westward over Alabama and southward across northern Florida.

Rain, snow and freezing rain will push into the Northeast Monday as a storm system churns northeastward up the Ohio Valley.

Monday night into Tuesday, significant snow may fall from southern Upstate New York to interior southern New England with some accumulations potentially to over 6 inches.

Showers and thunderstorms will concentrate in the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes. Farther north, snow showers will dot the Upper Midwest with a band of light accumulation possible from central Wisconsin into northern Michigan. Gusty winds will prevail across all of the Great Lakes.  (Region IX, media sources)

Tropical Activity

Tropical Storm Zeta is now about 1,100 miles southwest of the Azores and poses no threat to land. Zeta is now forecast to decrease to Tropical Depression strength on Monday.

There is no tropical activity in the Eastern, Western or Central Pacific Ocean. (Source: USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (Source: United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program )

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)