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National Situation Update: Sunday, January 1, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

West Coast Weather

The present storm that has brought so much rain is leaving Northern California and began moving into southern California Saturday night.  Flash Flood Watches have been issued for large areas burned by this year?s wildfires in Santa Barbara, Ventura and Los Angeles Counties. Local rainfall amounts will vary from ? inch to 2 inches.

Saturday night through early Sunday there will be a break before the next storm hits Washington, Oregon, and northern California Sunday morning. In northern California, the new rainfall amounts are not expected to be no more than 2 inches and not cause new flooding concerns. This system should reach Southern California Sunday night and last into Monday bringing 2 to 4 inches of rain. The basic upper-level pattern looks to shift the main storm track away from California by the middle of next week.

Rains will continue for the Pacific Northwest where so far only minor flooding has occurred in southern parts of Oregon.  (Source: NOAA/NWS and various media outlets)

California Flooding

Saturday's storm dumped an average of 4 to 5 inches in Northern California, with parts of Marin County recording more than 7 inches, according to the National Weather Service.

Heavy rainfall has diminished over the north coast.  Most rivers and streams were forecast to crest Saturday evening.  Rainfall over the next couple of days is expected to maintain relatively high flows.  The Navarro, Russian, and Napa rivers are experiencing a major flood.  Flood stages in several locations have or will reach record levels.  Tides are at their annual high today with maximum values in the seven foot range.  The outlook for the rest of the week will include daily highs in the five to six foot range which will inhibit drainage and runoff thereby exacerbating localized flooding.

Press reports attribute one fatality to Saturday’s storm.. There are media reports of evacuations in Sonoma and Napa Counties. Numbers mentioned are in the low hundreds. Mudslides have caused power outages to about 120,000 customers in the Bay Area, and Napa and Sonoma Counties.

The Sacramento/San Joaquin Delta water control system of levees, dams and weirs is forecast to adequately handle current flows with minor complications today and during storm activity of the next 48-72 hours, according to the NWS River Forecast Center and California Department of Water Resources (DWR).  This is based on current flows, forecast moderate rainfall, and the passage of an extreme high tide late this morning in the Sacramento Delta area.

The Sacramento Weir was opened Saturday morning to relieve the bankfull Sacramento River, purposely flooding the western side of the Yolo bypass as designed. One levee breach occurred Saturday morning flooding a hunting clubhouse and unpopulated marshlands of Van Sickle Island in Solano County, 20 miles east of Vallejo.

The NWS reports that the Klamath, Napa, Navarro, and Russian Rivers are still at flood stage near communities on California’s north coast.  Significant impacts follow:

• Cache Creek of the Yuba River system has exceeded flood stage and was forecast to reach 83 feet Saturday evening.  In the event of an unexpected 84-foot crest level, county and local officials may prompt a mandatory evacuation notice for 25,000 to 35,000 residents of the Woodland area of Yolo County.
• Approximately 22 RVs washed into the American River near Coloma in El Dorado County and threaten to damage bridges downriver.
• The Oroville Dam in Butte County was expected to increase its release rate into the Feather River Saturday, which may prompt evacuation orders for trailer parks downstream.
• In Del Norte County, the Klamath River at Klamath has produced flooding of highway 101 near the Requa road and adjacent low lying secondary roads flooding near the delta is expected.
• In Humboldt County, the Eel? River at Scotia is just above the level of the January 1995 event.  At this level, minor flooding is possible near Shively.  At Fernbridge, the Eel River is just above the level of January 1995; similar levels in the past have caused closure of highway 211.
• In Mendocino County, the Russian River crested above the December 1964 levels.  At the current and forecast levels, significant to severe flooding of low lying areas can still be expected from Ukiah to below Hopland Saturday night.  Many secondary roads and some primary roads and bridges are likely to be flooded and impassable.  At the current and forecast level of the Navarro River at Navarro, Highway 128 from the Anderson Valley to the coast was expected to remain closed.
• In Sonoma County, at Healdsburg, the Russian River is expected to cause major flooding, with extensive flooding of homes, businesses, and secondary roads across the lower section of Healdsburg.  Also expect extensive flooding to agricultural sections in the Alexander Valley.  In Guerneville, the Russian River is expected to flood many homes, roads, and businesses.  Portions of highway 116 are expected to become impassable due to flood waters.  The Rio Nido Post Office, the Monte Rio School, and Guerneville School are expected to be inundated.
• In Napa County, flooding is expected to continue across the entire Napa Valley.   At a 21.0 foot crest, severe flooding occurs in Calistoga, St Helena, and Yountville.  In the city of Napa the river reached 5 feet above flood stage, sending a surge of water into a several-block area of downtown. Upstream in St. Helena, the Napa River reached record levels — 7 feet over flood stage and the worst flooding since 1986. Napa officials estimated that about 1,000 homes in the area were flooded. NWS reports that numerous roads will become impassable and at least 30,000 acres of agricultural land will become inundated.

There are additional scattered reports of road outages, flooded streams, and some flooding of rural homes, trailer homes and RVs in Northeastern California counties.  Low-scale evacuations and sheltering are reported in the Sierra foothills. 

The California Highway Patrol is reporting a mudslide resulting in closure of Interstate Highway 80 between Truckee, CA and Verde, NV early Saturday.  I-80 is the main artery between Sacramento, CA and Reno, NV.  The slide occurred on the California side of the border and trapped six trucking rigs; no fatalities or injuries reported. Due to unstable slopes and continued storm conditions, I-80 is expected to remain closed for at least two days with an extended closure possible.  Further west, I-80 westbound near Fairfield, about 45 outside San Francisco, was shut down as it sat under 4 feet of water. High water has also resulted in closure of Highway 89 near Truckee. Interstate 5, the main north-south route between Oregon and California, was closed Friday because of a mudslide at Siskiyou Pass in Oregon but has now been reopened.

The California National Guard has gone to full JOC activation and begun storm recovery operations and evacuations in response to current and forecast flooding in the state.  CA currently has 29 National Guardsmen conducting the storm recovery operations.  CA has also deployed 7 vehicles and 2 UH60 helicopters for the operations.  They are currently evacuating personnel from low-lying areas to designated shelters and providing support to counties with power outages.  CA National Guard anticipates being able to handle the situation with available resources and has requested no outside support. 

State, county and local officials continue to monitor forecasts, rivers and levees. Sandbagging is ongoing in multiple communities.  The Union Pacific Railroad and Amtrak are experiencing track closures and train delays because of mud slides and/or water over the tracks due to heavy rains in Northern California. 

The State, Coastal, and Inland EOCs remain activated for multiple storm impacts statewide. All immediate response requirements are being met at the local and State level.  Requests for State resources have remained minor and include hand-crews, large wheeled vehicles, and overhead management teams. 

FEMA Region IX RRCC is activated at level 3, with Duty Officer Watch.  A FEMA Liaison is located at the state EOC for coordination purposes.  DHS has also provided a liaison for Infrastructure protection. (Region IX)

Nevada Flooding

NWS reports moderate to record flooding on many rivers and streams in extreme western Nevada. NWS reports flooding on the following rivers in Nevada: Carson River at Woodfords, Gardnerville, and Dayton; on the Truckee River at  Reno, Sparks, and Vista; on the Upper Truckee River near South Lake Tahoe;  North Truckee Drain at Sparks; Steamboat Creek at Short Lane (Reno); Ash Canyon Creek at Carson City; Clear Creek near Carson City; and Eagle Valley Creek at Carson City.

Up to 1-2 inches of rain on valley floors and 6-8 inches of rain in the Lake Tahoe area caused widespread localized flooding along the eastern Sierra. The Truckee River swamped an undetermined number of buildings in downtown Reno including the county courthouse annex and Masonic Lodge after cresting there early Saturday afternoon at about 13.6 feet, 2.6 feet above flood stage. But unlike 1997, there was no significant flooding in downtown.The river also flooded an undetermined number of businesses downstream in the Sparks industrial area after cresting there at 19.2 feet, 4.2 feet above flood stage.

Weather-related power outages affected more than 40,000 customers in the Reno-Tahoe area according to Sierra Pacific Power Co.

The State EOC has been activated and reports that five counties have made local declarations and two additional counties may also.  The Nevada National Guard has gone to full JOC activation and stood up Task Force High Roller in response to current and forecast flooding in the Northern part of the state.

Nevada is deploying 7 high water vehicles (2.5 ton or above truck) with 12 personnel and 1 UH60 Helicopter with 4 personnel in support of flood operations. They are currently evacuating low-lying areas to designated shelters, and the Nevada JOC may have to relocate. 

At this point, Nevada anticipates being able to handle the situation with available resources and has requested no outside support. All immediate response requirements are being met at the local and State level.  

There is no request for Federal assistance. (Region IX, media sources)

Texas and Oklahoma Red Flag Warning

The NWS has posted a Red Flag Warning Sunday for Western North Texas and most of Central and Southern Oklahoma.  A Fire Weather Watch has expanded north to include all of Northern Oklahoma. 

Very dangerous wildfire conditions expected Sunday across the Southern Plains. 

A storm system moving into the Central and Southern Plains on Sunday will cause strong west and southwest winds which will bring in very dry air from the west.  Along with the dry air, temperatures will warm to near record levels.  These conditions will combine to create extreme fire weather conditions across much of Oklahoma and Western North Texas on Sunday. (NWS)

Texas Wildfires

The priority for the State to Texas is to continue to build response capability to meet the current and future wildfire threat. Currently the State of Texas has 65 aircraft, 75 dozers and approximately 450 State personnel in direct support of wildfire operations. Fire suppression equipment, including dozers, fire engines and aircraft are being utilized to combat the fires. These resources are pre-positioned in high risk and high occurrence areas. The Texas Civil Air Patrol (TXCAP) is assisting in detection of fires in the most threatened areas by providing 27 aircraft with crews.  TXCAP began aerial recon operations Saturday and will continue until no longer required.

It is predicted that beginning today sustained surface winds will be 25-30 mph with gusts from 30-40 mph. This, along with high temperatures and low humidity, will create an extremely high threat environment. The dry weather pattern will continue for at least the next week.

The Texas Forest Service is providing overall coordination of wildfire fighting efforts. The Texas Army National Guard (TXARNG) continues to be prepared to provide assistance. Texas Department of Public Safety (TXDPS) continues to provide traffic control and aerial surveillance assistance. The SOC remains activated at Level I to Level I (Emergency Conditions).

The Salvation Army has set up one canteen and is serving meals to victims and responders in Cross Plains, Callahan County. The American Red Cross (ARC) is standing by to assist relief efforts where necessary. (Region VI and State of Texas)

Oklahoma Wildfires

State-wide more than 50,000 acres have burned since last Sunday.  Nearly 100 homes and businesses have been destroyed and many more have sustained damage. The Oklahoma Department of Emergency Management (OEM) has received reports of wildfires occurring in the following 23 counties – Bryan, Canadian, Carter, Cherokee, Choctaw, Cotton, Garfield, Garvin, Grady, Hughes, Johnston, Love, McCurtain, McIntosh, Muskogee, Okfuskee, Oklahoma, Okmulgee, Pontotoc, Pushmataha, Rogers, Seminole and Tulsa.

Local responders include the Oklahoma Military Department, Oklahoma Department of Agriculture, Food and Forestry, Bureau of Indian Affairs, and US Forest Service. Firefighting teams from Alabama and Tennessee arrived in Oklahoma Saturday, 31 December. Teams from North Carolina are arriving today, 1 January.  Florida Teams will arrive Monday and Tuesday.  A temporary Retardant Base is operational in Ardmore (Carter County). There are four (4) Helicopters, four (4) air tankers, and fourteen (14) dozers pre-positioned.

The American Red Cross is assisting by providing Emergency Response Vehicles for firefighter hydration, processing applications, and providing damage assessments.  (Region VI, State of Oklahoma)

Tropical Activity

Tropical Storm Zeta remains about 1,000 miles southwest of the Azores and poses no threat to land. Zeta is now forecast to decrease to Tropical Depression strength on Monday.

There is no tropical activity in the Eastern, Western or Central Pacific Ocean. (Source: USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (Source: United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)