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National Situation Update: Wednesday, December 28, 2005

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary Storms Move into the West

West

 Pacific storm systems will continue in the West the remainder of the week, with drenching rains, strong gusty, winds and heavy mountain snow. The heaviest downpours, several inches, will be in southwestOregon and northwest California as well as the Sierra Nevada where snow levels will be quite high... 7000 to 8000 feet. The wet weather will extend from the Canadian border to California as far south as Bakersfield. The strongest winds will occur along the coast early in the day from northern California to Washington. Gusts over the headlands may reach 75 mph. High surf, 20 to 25 feet, will persist along the beaches. Heavy snow will fall in the Washington Cascades, Bitterroots and mountains of central Idaho. Snow levels in the Cascades will be rather high, around 5000 feet in central Washington, 6000 to 7000 feet in Oregon --but are forecast to drop sharply to around 4000 feet by late afternoon as a cold front moves inland.

South
A cold front pushing eastward through the South tomorrow will ignite showers and thunderstorms over Tennessee and much of the Southeast.

A few thunderstorms may grow severe in areas near the Gulf Coast: southeastern Louisiana, southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, southern Georgia and northern Florida. The primary threats will be strong, gusty winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes are possible.

Midwest
Spotty rain showers underneath a trough of low pressure aloft will dot much of the Midwest tomorrow. In far northern areas, a small amount of wet snow may mix in with the showers, but nothing significant.

Northeast
A weak storm system moving into the Ohio Valley tomorrow will create a few showers into New York state, western Pennsylvania , West Virginia and far western Virginia . Increasingly cloudy skies, meanwhile, will develop over New England .

 (Source: NOAA/NWS and various media outlets)

Volcano Activity

Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO), Weekly Update, Friday, December 23, 2005

Unrest continues at Augustine Volcano. Earthquake activity remains elevated and several small steam explosions were recorded during the past week. There are no indications at this time that a large eruption is imminent.

Augustine remains in color code YELLOW and AVO continues to monitor the situation closely.

AVO scientists visited the volcano on several occasions this week. Thermal imaging of the summit area yesterday using a helicopter mounted FLIR (Forward Looking Infrared Radiometer) confirmed the presence of a new, high-temperature fumarole or gas vent high on the south flank of the volcano. A gas-measurement flight on Tuesday detected sulfur-dioxide for the first time at Augustine since routine airborne measurements began in the early 1990s.

Aerial observations and analysis of photography and video of the summit area indicate that some deformation within the summit crater has occurred. A crack or fissure was noted cutting the 1986 lava dome and extending to the southeast. Heavy steam from this feature along with patches of bare ground, indicate that heat output at the summit has increased.

Taken together, these observations suggest that new magma may be present beneath Augustine Volcano. Based on past eruptions at Augustine, AVO expects to see a sharp increase in earthquake activity prior to a significant explosive eruption. At this time, the level of seismicity is still well below that observed just prior to the 1986 eruption. However, small steam explosions are likely to continue to occur. These explosions occur with no warning and could affect low-flying aircraft in the vicinity of the volcano.

Augustine Volcano is a 1260 m high (4134 ft) conical-shaped island stratovolcano located in southern Cook Inlet, about 290 km (180 mi) southwest of Anchorage, Alaska and 120 km (75 mi) southwest of Homer, Alaska. Historically, Augustine is the most active volcano in the Cook Inlet region with significant eruptions in 1812, 1883, 1908, 1935, 1963-64, 1976, and 1986. These eruptions were primarily explosive events that produced volcanic ash clouds (to 30,000-40,000 feet above sea level), ash fall, pyroclasic flows, and lava domes or flows. (Source: USGS)

Tropical Activity

There is no tropical activity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, orGulf of Mexico.  

There is no tropical activity in the Eastern, Western or Central Pacific Ocean. (Source: USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)