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National Situation Update: Saturday, December 17, 2005

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

Northeast:  Lake-effect snow will continue into Saturday affecting a few locales in the Northeast.  One heavy lake-effect snow band from Lake Erie may bring up to a foot of snow into the Buffalo area, and a second from Lake Ontario into the Watertown, NY area by early Saturday.

South:  On Saturday, a storm system will develop in the Gulf of Mexico and rapidly spread rain from eastern Texas to Georgia, South Carolina, and northern Florida on Saturday. Late Saturday into Sunday, light snow and sleet will develop in the southern Appalachians and possibly eastern Tennessee as rain pushes northward through the remainder of North Carolina. The rain will end across Georgia by early Sunday and mostly across the Southeast by Sunday afternoon as the storm sweeps into the Atlantic.

Midwest:  Snow showers across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest for the next few days.  An upper level disturbance will spread a band of light snow from Kansas Saturday to the Appalachians by Sunday. Temperatures will be 5-20 degrees below average through Monday.

West:  Stagnant air will persist in the Pacific Northwest and the clouds/fog will linger in California's Central Valley. Saturday night and Sunday, a storm will affect the West Coast and finally bring some rain into the area. Rain will increase over northern and central California, western Oregon, and southwest Washington with snow in the Cascades and Sierras. Light snow will dust parts of Colorado Saturday. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS and Various Commercial and Media Sources)

Ice Storm Power Outage Continues in South

Widespread damage from a deadly ice storm left more than half a million customers still in the dark Friday night, and utility officials said the electricity might not be fully restored in parts of the Carolinas until Tuesday. Duke Power urged customers facing extended periods without heat to find another place to stay.

The storm blew through Georgia, the Carolinas, and Virginia on Thursday and was blamed for hundreds of traffic accidents and at least four deaths. Ice built up on tree limbs, causing them to snap and pull down power lines. At least four deaths were reported from the storm as the storm moved up the East Coast.

According to a spokesman from Duke Power, the leading provider in the hard-hit areas, the storm inflicted extreme structural damage.  As of 9:00 p.m. Friday,  481,000 customers remain without power, predominantly in upstate South Carolina and the Catawba and Henderson counties of North Carolina, down from 683,000 at the height of the storm.  Utility crews with about 7,500 utility technicians from 16 states are assisting with Duke Power's ice storm recovery efforts.

Power was restored more quickly in Georgia, where the remaining 30,000 homes and businesses still without electricity Friday afternoon were expected to have power by morning. (Duke Power and Various Media Sources)

NOAA Reports Warmer 2005 for the United States, Near-Record Warmth Globally

Hurricanes, Floods, Snow and, Wildfires: All Notable
After a record-breaking hurricane season, blistering heat waves, lingering drought and a crippling Northeast blizzard, 2005 is ending as a warm year in the United States. It will come close to the all-time high global annual average temperature, based on preliminary data gathered by scientists at the NOAA National Climate Data Center in Asheville, N.C.

Warmer-than-average 2005 for US
NOAA scientists report that the 2005 annual average temperature for the contiguous United States (based on preliminary data) will likely be 1.0 degrees F (0.6 degrees C) above the 1895-2004 mean, which will make 2005 one of the 20 warmest years on record for the country. Mean temperatures through the end of November were warmer than average in all but three states. No state was cooler than average. A July heat wave pushed temperatures soaring beyond 100 degrees, and broke more than 200 daily records established in six western states. A new record of seven consecutive days at, or above, 125 degrees F was established at Death Valley, California. The heat wave spread across the country during late July, scorching the East and prompted record electricity usage in New England and New York.

Drought, Rainfall and Snow
The 2004-2005 winter was a season of contrasts for the West, with excessive rainfall in the Southwest and severe drought in the Northwest. A parade of winter Pacific storms triggered severe flooding and devastating landslides in southern California and brought the second-wettest winter on record to the Southwest region. Record and near-record snowpack levels, which were widespread across the Southwest by early spring, eased drought in a region where it had persisted for five years. Meanwhile, drought conditions worsened in the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies in early 2005 and snowpack in much of the region was at record low levels at the end of winter. However, above average precipitation in subsequent months led to improving drought conditions in much of the region.

During spring, the drought focus shifted to the Midwest and southern Plains. Severe dryness persisted across parts of northern Illinois, with Chicago and Rockford recording their driest March-November on record. Drought disasters were declared in all or parts of Arkansas, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Texas, and Wisconsin. Drier-than-average conditions contributed to an active wildfire season that burned more than 8.5 million acres in 2005, 4.5 million acres consumed in Alaska alone, based on preliminary data from the National Interagency Fire Center. This exceeds the old record set in 2000 for acreage burned in a wildfire season for the United States as a whole. At the end of November, 18 percent of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-extreme drought based on a widely used measure of drought in contrast to six percent at the end of November last year.

Record precipitation fell in the Northeast during the fall with three storm systems affecting the region in October. Nine states in the Northeast had their wettest October since 1895, and the October snowfall record on Mount Washington was shattered when 78.9 inches of snow fell during the month. Another notable snow storm in 2005 was the 'Blizzard of 2005,' which brought more than two feet of snow across much of southern New England in late January. This storm ranked as the seventh most extreme snow event in the Northeast as measured by a newly developed Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS) index and contributed to the snowiest January on record in Boston.

Tropical Cyclones and Hurricanes
The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season set several records. There were 26 named storms (storms with sustained winds of at least 39 miles per hour). In addition, there were an unprecedented 14 hurricanes, of which seven were major hurricanes (Category 3 or better on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Three category 5 storms (sustained winds of 156 miles per hour or more) formed in the Atlantic Basin for the first time in a single season (Katrina, Rita, and Wilma). Four major hurricanes and three tropical storms made landfall in the U.S., with an eighth storm (Ophelia) brushing the North Carolina coast. Tropical cyclone activity was near to below average in the Eastern Pacific and Western North Pacific basins through early December.

Global
The global annual temperature for combined land and ocean surfaces is expected to be very close to the record global temperature that was established in 1998 under the influence of an extremely strong El Nino episode. There has been no such El Niño event in 2005, but rather, unusual warmth across large parts of the globe throughout the year. NOAA is in the process of transitioning to an improved global temperature analysis system. The data analysis system used by NOAA for global temperature analyses over the past eight years indicates that 2005 would likely be the second-warmest year on record (1.06 degrees F; 0.59 degrees C above the 1880-2004 mean), marginally lower than 1998.

The largest temperature anomalies were widespread throughout high latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere and included much of Russia, Scandinavia, Canada, and Alaska. During the past century, global surface temperatures have increased at a rate near 1.1 degrees F/Century (0.6 degrees C/Century), but the rate of temperature increase has been three times larger since 1976, with some of the largest temperature increases occurring in the high latitudes.

Reflecting the global warmth in 2005, a new record was established in September for the lowest Arctic sea ice extent since satellite monitoring began in the late 1970s, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This is part of a continuing trend in end-of-summer Arctic sea ice extent reductions of approximately eight percent per decade since 1979.

The year began with the continuation of a weak El Niño episode that developed in late 2004, but sea surface temperatures in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific decreased early in the year and the episode ended by late February. Few impacts from the weak El Niño occurred worldwide, and neutral conditions persisted for the remainder of the year.

Significant weather and climate events for the globe included: severe drought in parts of southern Africa and the Greater Horn of Africa, extreme monsoon-related rainfall in western India including a 24-hour rainfall total of 37.1 inches in Mumbai, the worst drought in decades in the Amazon River basin, severe drought in large parts of western Europe, and a record warm year in Australia.  (US Department of Commerce/National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration)

Space Weather Outlook

Summary for December 5-11, 2005: Category G1 (minor) - Geomagnetic storm conditions were observed on 11 December due to a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole on the Sun.  The outlook for December 14-20, 2005 states that no significant space weather is expected during the forecast period.  (US Department of Commerce/National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration)

Tropical Activity

There is no tropical activity in the Atlantic, Caribbean or Pacific. In the Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone 07B was 927 nautical miles southwest of Rangoon, Burma and 933 nautical miles southeast of Bombay, India.  It poses no threat to US interests.  (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

During the last 24 hours, there were a number of minor earthquakes over 3.0 magnitude in Alaska (5), Hawaii (3), and California (2) earthquakes with a preliminary magnitude of 3.4 in the East San Francisco Bay area and a magnitude 3.6 earthquake near San Bernardino on Friday night.  There were no reports of casualties or damage.

A strong earthquake (6.2) shook northern Japan early Saturday, injuring at least two people, but there was no danger of a tsunami. (United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

A Public Assistance PDA for 18 counties in Kansas is scheduled to begin on December 19, 2005.

A Public Assistance PDA for eight counties in Minnesota is scheduled for December 19-22, 2005. (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

Initial attack activity was light nationally with 217 new fires reported for the week. Three new large fires were reported and contained in the Southern Area. Very high to extreme fire indices were reported in Nebraska and South Dakota.  (USDA/USFS and the NIAFC and USDOC/NOAA/NWS/SPC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

On December 16, the President signed a major disaster declaration (FEMA-1619-DR-CT) for the State of Connecticut for damages caused by severe storms and flooding on October 14-15, 2005. Public Assistance was authorized for the counties of Litchfield, New London, Tollard, and Windham. Additional designations may be made at a later date after further evaluation.  (FEMA HQ)