Skip to content

National Situation Update: Monday, November 21, 2005

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Forecast

NOAA’s Binghamton, NY weather service has issued a winter storm warning for tomorrow morning through afternoon in northern Oneida, Madison, southern Oneida, Chenango, Otsego, Broome, Delaware, Susquehanna, and northern Wayne.

A low pressure system expected to develop over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico will track northeast to the Carolinas today and continue northeast off the New Jersey coast by tomorrow morning. The system will become a major winter storm tomorrow across New England to northern Maine and into southeastern Canada late tomorrow night.

Beginning with rain in central New York and northeast Pennsylvania colder air will be drawn across the watch area and the rain changes to snow tomorrow morning. Heavy snow is possible with up to 7 inches or more possible before tapering off tomorrow night.

Northeast:  Rain through the Virginias today moving northward, reaching far southeastern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey by evening. This rain is the advance guard of a developing coastal storm and will become widespread and heavier tonight and tomorrow as the storm swirls northeastward along the Eastern Seaboard. Rain will change to heavy snow from the Adirondack, Catskill, Pocono, Laurel and Alleghany Mountains westward tomorrow. High temperatures are expected to be near to above averages today and mostly in the 40s and 50s, north to south. Temperatures will be taking a downturn from southwest to northeast tomorrow. From mid-week on it'll be a winter story. A new disturbance will cross the Great Lakes and Northeast Wednesday and Thursday with snow falling over a large part of the region and some flakes even reaching New York City, Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington by the time the turkey is being carved.

South:  Weather in the Southeast will be miserable today. Soaking rain and gusty winds will assault the Southeast as a storm system cranks up over the Carolinas. Added in to the mix will be the threat of severe thunderstorms in Florida as a cold front sweeps over the state. Significant travel delays should be expected in the Southeast both on the highways and at the airports. The storm will move up the coast and away from the South tomorrow with rain showers lingering in parts of the Carolinas and north Georgia. Flakes of snow will mix in with any residual showers in central and eastern Tennessee, extreme northeast Alabama and the southern Appalachians. Thursday through Friday will be dry across the South. A few snow showers will be in the Smoky Mountains. High temperatures are forecast to range from the 50s in much of the Deep South, Tennessee and Arkansas to the low 80s in far south Florida. Farther west expect sunshine and seasonable temperatures to prevail west of the Mississippi River.

Midwest:  Some light rain and snow showers around the Great Lakes today. The remainder of the Midwest and Plains is expected to remain dry. An eastern storm moves by tonight through tomorrow and the Ohio Valley will see rain change to snow while the lake-effect snow is expected to be significant; especially over the U. P. of Michigan, western Lower Michigan and finally eastern Ohio. High temperatures today will range from the 30s in much of North Dakota and the northern reaches of the Upper Midwest to the low 60s in southwest Kansas. Readings in the 40s and 50s will be common in the lower Midwest. The Great Lakes will see more snow on Wednesday. Snow showers and squalls will linger over Michigan, northern Indiana and Ohio Thanksgiving Day and Friday. Temperatures over the Plains will be above average while east of the Mississippi they will be increasingly below average.

West: Most of next week the Northwest will have strong high pressure nestled over the Great Basin keeping stagnant air—along with low clouds and fog—trapped in the valleys and basins. Elsewhere in the West, expect abundant sunshine and excellent pre-Thanksgiving travel conditions. High temperatures will be noticeably above late November averages in most areas. The lower elevations of the Northwest the persistent overcast and mist will suppress afternoon temperatures. Overall, high temperatures are predicted to range from the 30s and 40s from east of the Cascades to the Rockies to just over 80 in southwest Arizona. In the lower elevations of California, highs in the 70s will be common.  (NWS, Media Sources)

Wild Fire Update

National Preparedness Level 1.

The School Fire north of Ventura, California is 90 percent contained and full containment is expected by 6:00 p.m. local time on November, 22.

Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for Napa County, the East Bay, South Bay, Santa Cruz Mountains, and all of Monterey and San Benito Counties.  A very warm and dry air mass is over the region and the weather pattern remains largely unchanged with light to moderate offshore flow.  ( California Office of Emergency Services,  USFS, NIFC, NICC)

Tropical Weather Outlook

In the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico, tropical storm formation is not expected through tomorrow. The last advisory has been issued for Tropical Depression Gamma as it dissipates north of Honduras.

There are two storms active in the Pacific, but neither storm threatens any United States territories or possessions.  (National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

A strong earthquake measuring 6.0 magnitude occurred on November 20, at about 7:53 A.M. EST in the ocean east of Dutch Harbor, AK in the Aleutian Chain. No tsunami, damage or injuries. No further information.  (USGS, NOAA Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new information to report. (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Thursday, 04-Jun-2009 16:16:39 EDT