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National Situation Update: Friday, November 18, 2005

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Forecast

Northeast: Parts of western New York had to dig out of significant lake-effect snow on Thursday, especially just south of Buffalo, NY. Friday will be less snowy, with only some snow showers east of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Temperatures are chilly through the region and cities from Boston, Mass., to Washington, D.C., should see the first freezing temperatures of the season by Friday morning.

High temperatures will remain chilly on Friday ranging from the 20s along the Canadian border to the 40s in Virginia.

Over the weekend, the Northeast will be mainly dry with temperatures trending back to average.

Saturday looks milder across the region but by Sunday, an area of low pressure may send rain up the Eastern Seaboard. The track and intensity of this storm is still unclear so the situation will have to be monitored. It looks like another shot of cold air will sweep across the region next week.

South: Most residents of the South will wake up to a chilly Friday morning. Freeze warnings are in effect for areas near the East Coast from North Carolina to Georgia. Freeze warnings are also in effect for parts of the northern Gulf Coast. Temperatures will moderate somewhat over the weekend, but will remain on the cool side. Most of the South will be dry but low pressure may develop off the Southeast Coast over the weekend and spread showers northward from Florida on Saturday to the Carolinas on Sunday.

Midwest: A weak storm system will drop down across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes this weekend and rain and snow showers will accompany this system. Temperatures will be increasingly above average over the Plains and northern Mississippi Valley and moderate to seasonal levels across the rest of the region. By late Monday and Tuesday of next week, a stronger storm system will send another shot of cold air over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes with rain changing to snow.

West: High pressure aloft is parked over the West Coast and will allow fog to develop across the valleys of the Pacific Northwest resulting in more fog, low clouds and unhealthy air. Meanwhile, increasing high pressure over the Great Basin and lower pressure along the California Coast will rev up the Santa Ana winds over Southern California on Friday and Saturday. Gusts could top 60 mph in the mountains and passes east of Los Angeles. The fire risk will remain extremely high for Ventura, Los Angeles, southwest San Bernardino, western Riverside, Orange and San Diego Counties. Temperatures will be mainly above average across the West and as much as 10 to 20 degrees above average in Montana right through the weekend. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS and Various Commercial Sources)

Lake Effect Snow

The first significant lake-effect snow will produce dangerous travel conditions in the Great Lakes area. Very cold air from Canada is being drawn across the warm waters of the Great Lakes, producing bands of snow. Heavy snow will continue across Northern Michigan before tapering off this evening. The snow to the lee of Lake Erie will continue through tonight, with periods of heavy snowfall expected. 4 - 8" of snow is forecast along the south shore of Lake Erie, with 12" possible in some areas. Wind gusts reaching 35 mph will cause whiteout conditions. East of Lake Ontario the snow will be heaviest south of Watertown, NY, while areas further south near Syracuse will receive 1-6" before Friday morning. Snow is expected to be heavy at times, and nighttime driving conditions along the New York State Thruway and I-81 are expected to be treacherous.

This is the first significant snowfall of the season. Associated Press reports at least four people were killed in traffic accidents Wednesday as the first major snowstorm of the season struck Minnesota. (Various Media and Commercial Sources}

Weather service confirms storm front produced 9 Tennessee tornadoes

The National Weather Service has confirmed 9 tornadoes spun off from a line of severe thunderstorms which moved through West and Middle Tennessee earlier this week, causing heavy damage in areas.

After reports of tornadoes in 12 Tennessee counties on Tuesday, meteorologists conducted field research on Wednesday to confirm the reports. Twin tornadoes with strengths of F2 on the Fujita Tornado Intensity Scale struck in Henry County, near Paris, where more than 40 homes and three businesses sustained damage.

The tornado strength is determined by the speed of the winds. F2 category tornadoes have winds of 113-157 miles per hour. F1 twisters produce winds up to 112 miles per hour.

An F2 tornado also touched down in Montgomery County two miles southeast of Clarksville. Several houses and mobile homes were damaged in the Cunningham community by that twister. Two F1 tornadoes also were confirmed in the county. An F2 tornado followed a short, narrow track in Dickson County, about a mile south of the Sylvia community. Damages in Crockett, Gibson and Weakley counties were caused by a single F1 tornado. F1 tornadoes also were confirmed in Houston County and Humphreys County.

Meteorologists said the severe thunderstorms resulted from a cold front moving east that collided with warm, unstable air across the central Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys. The front was also responsible for twisters in southern Indiana and western Kentucky. The cold front brought with it temperatures around 10 degrees below normal, which are expected to persist until Saturday, according to National Weather Service forecasts. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS and SPC, FEMA Regions IV and V,  State and Commonwealth Emergency Operations Centers, and Various Media Sources)

Region IV Tornadoes: Update

Kentucky: The Kentucky Emergency Operations Center is currently activated at Level 2 (partially activated with limited State agencies). The EOC will remain staffed until 7:00 PM EST, Thursday, November 17, 2005; a duty officer will be on call after hours. A FEMA Response Liaison remains in the Kentucky EOC.

Marshall and Hopkins Counties were the most severely impacted. Incident Command Posts have been established in both counties. Marshall, Hopkins, Union and Henderson (City of Henderson) Counties have issued local proclamations of emergencies. One fatality has been confirmed in Marshall County. Marshall County has local dial service only. Commercial telecommunications are functionally intermittent or non-functional. Numerous injuries (approximately 2) have been reported throughout the impacted areas, with several being (8) hospitalized.

Minor damages were reported in Todd, Union, Daviess, Logan, Muhlenberg, Calloway, Christian, and McLean Counties.

An Executive Order declaring a State of Emergency has been issued by the Governor. The Kentucky National Guard was activated; approximately 100 soldiers remain on duty in the affected area. The Governor, the Adjutant General, the Kentucky Emergency Management Assistant Director, and other staff have visited the impacted areas. Priorities remain life safety issues, search and rescue, mass care, security, and damage assessment.

Initial assessment figures for Hopkins County (Madisonville area) are:

• Residences: 120 Destroyed; 600 uninhabitable; 400 damaged but habitable.
• Approximately 30 to 50 homes destroyed in Country Clubhouse Estates;
• Benton - 15 mobile homes damaged.
• Utilities: Water system temporarily out of service; widespread power interruptions; and natural gas leaks.
• Hazards: Leaking fuel tanks (clean up ongoing); other hazmat releases; security issues, utility poles.
• Search and rescue operations are continuing with the KY National Guard on site providing security support.\
• In Hopkins County approximately 1,600 customers are still without power. Power outages at gasoline stations continue to cause some isolated fuel shortages.
• Major power outages in Madisonville.
• Bell South reported a fiber facility in the Madisonville area sustained damages.

Shelter operations have scaled back and t he two that were open in Marshall County have closed. Six families (18 individuals) have been moved to local motels. In Hopkins County, one shelter remains open with approximately nine individuals. Most individuals are staying with families and friends.

In Benton, an elderly couple with special needs have been moved to a local hotel, and the Marshall County Health Department is assessing their medical needs. The American Red Cross (ARC) has set up feeding sites in the areas and established a Family Assistance Center at East Marshall County Fire Department Station 1 and in Hopkins County at the Covenant Church. ARC has provided 2,200 meals and anticipates this number to be higher as additional relief workers and volunteers arrive in the areas.

All major roadways are cleared and there are no major traffic problems, except secondary roadways and some smaller roads remain blocked by debris and areas where utility crews are working in the area. Local damage assessments are being evaluated and the State and locals are evaluating the need for a FEMA-State PDA.

Tennessee: The State EOC did not activate for this event. The State continues to evaluate inform?ation to determine whether a joint FEMA-State damage assessment should be requested. The State has received no requests for assistance from the local governments at this time. The State has not requested any Federal assistance. All local needs are being met at this time.

Federal Actions: There have been no other requests for assistance. A Response Liaison remains at the Kentucky EOC. The Regional Response Coordination Center (RRCC) in Thomasville, GA remains activated at Level 3. Hours of operations are 7:00 AM to 7:00 PM until further notice. Contact with the affected states is being maintained and rosters, to include preliminary damage assessment teams, are being reviewed for potential activation. (FEMA Region IV)

Earthquake in New England

A micro earthquake occurred at 17:39:36Z (12:39:36 EST) on Thursday, November 17, 2005. The magnitude 2.5 event has been located in Southern New England. No injuries and no damages were reported. Distances from epicenter: 4 km (2 miles) south (172) from Plymouth, MA; 6 km (4 miles) SSE (159) from North Plymouth, MA, 9 km (6 miles) SSE (150) from Kingston, MA, and 57 km (35 miles) SE (141) from Boston, MA. (USDOI/USGS and Various Commercial Sources)

Space Weather Outlook

Outlook for November 16-22 Category R1 (minor) radio blackouts are possible from active sunspot region 822 that could result in weak or minor degradation of HF radio communication on sunlit side, the occasional loss of radio contact and the degradation of Navigation - Low-Frequency navigation signals for brief intervals. (USDOC/NOAA)

Tropical Weather Worldwide

There are no organized tropical systems in the eastern Pacific or the Atlantic Basin. However, in the western Pacific, Typhoon BOLAVEN (24W) was still churning through the Philippine Sea, about 480 miles east-southeast of Manila. Sustained winds are around 90 mph and the storm will continue to strengthen over the next couple of days and is expected to strike southeastern Luzon or Samar, Friday night or Saturday. The storm poses no threat to US persons, territories, properties, or interests at present.

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A 1005 mb low is just inland along the coast of Nicaragua near 14N 84W drifting north-northwest. This system continues to produce sustained winds near tropical storm force, but it still does not appear to have a closed surface circulation. This low pressure is centered over northeastern Nicaragua and moving toward Honduras, is producing a small area of thunderstorm activity near its circulation center.

Further north of this low, over the northwestern Caribbean near 18N 85W and moving to the northwest, are the remnants of Tropical Depression Twenty-Seven (TD 27). Showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea are associated with the remnants of TD 27. These two systems combined are producing a large area of scattered moderate/strong convection within 120 nautical miles of line from Cuba near 22N 81W to inland over Honduras to near 14N 86W. Conditions appear favorable for tropical development from either system during the next day or so. Even if tropical development does not occur, heavy rains/strong thunderstorms could produce flash floods and mud slides over parts of Nicaragua and Honduras. Another US Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this area tomorrow if necessary. Interests in the north-western Caribbean Sea and adjacent land areas should monitor the progress of these complex areas of disturbed weather.

Even if tropical cyclone development does not occur, heavy rains are likely to continue during the next couple of days in portions of Nicaragua and Honduras and could spread into Belize, northern Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

A non-tropical area of low pressure is centered about 875 miles northeast of the Leeward Islands and is producing some winds to near gale force. Additional slow development of this system is possible as it moves slowly westward during the next couple of days.

Elsewhere, tropical storm formation is not expected through Saturday.

For the Eastern North Pacific East Of 140 Degrees West Longitude: There are no tropical systems in the eastern Pacific at the current time, and no development is expected through at least early next week.

For the Central North Pacific between 140W And 180: No tropical cyclones are expected through Saturday morning.

For the Western Pacific Ocean: The 180300Z (11:00 p.m. EST) position of Typhoon 24W (BOLAVEN) was near 13.9N 128.9E approximately 475 nautical miles east of Manila, Philippines tracking tracked northwestward at 4 knots. Some strengthening is expected over the next couple of days before BOLAVEN strikes southeastern Luzon or Samar, Friday night or Saturday. The storm poses no threat to US persons, territories, properties, or interests at present.

For the Southern Pacific Ocean: There were no tropical cyclones to report and none are expected to form over at least the next 24-48 hours.

For the Indian Ocean: There were no tropical cyclones to report and none are expected to form over at least the next 24-48 hours. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS/NHC, JTWC, and Various Commercial and Media Sources)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-1603-LA-DR, Louisiana, Amendment Number 8 where Alexander S. Wells, of FEMA is appointed to act as the Federal Coordinating Officer (FCO) for this declared disaster. This action terminates the appointment of Vice Admiral Thad Allen of the United States Coast Guard as Federal Coordinating Officer for this disaster. 

FEMA-1604-MS-DR, Mississippi, Amendment Number 10 where James N. Russo, of FEMA is appointed to act as the FCO for this declared disaster. This action terminates the appointment of Vice Admiral Thad Allen of the United States Coast Guard as Federal Coordinating Officer for this disaster. 

FEMA-1605-AL-DR, Alabama, Amendment Number 8 where Michael Bolch, of FEMA is appointed to act as the FCO for this declared disaster. This action terminates the appointment of Vice Admiral Thad Allen of the United States Coast Guard as Federal Coordinating Officer for this disaster.   

FEMA-1610-NH-DR, New Hampshire; Amendment Number1 - The notice of a major disaster declaration for the State of New Hampshire is hereby amended to include the following area among those areas determined to have been adversely affected by the catastrophe declared a major disaster by the President in his declaration of October 26, 2005: Belknap County for Individual Assistance (already designated for Public Assistance.) 

FEMA-1614-MA-DR, Massachusetts, Amendment Number 1 - The notice of a major disaster declaration for the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is hereby amended to include the following area among those areas determined to have been adversely affected by the catastrophe declared a major disaster by the President in his declaration of November 10, 2005: Worcester County for Public Assistance (already designated for Individual Assistance.). (FEMA HQ)