National Situation Update: Tuesday, November 15, 2005
Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).
Heavy Storm Activity in the Midwest, South
High pressure covers the western States. A low pressure center centered over Missouri has an inverted trough extending to Minnesota, a cold front extending southwest to Texas and a warm front extending eastward to the mid Atlantic.
West: High pressure over the Great Basin will bring dry weather to the West. Santa Ana winds are forecast for Southern California. The offshore winds produce higher temperatures and low humidity levels resulting in increased fire danger for the next few days
Midwest: The complex weather system centered in Missouri will produce precipitation in a wide swath from the Dakotas the Great Lakes southward to the Gulf Coast. The Dakotas, Minnesota and Wisconsin will experience near-blizzard to blizzard conditions later today. Wind gusts in the northern Great Lakes may exceed 60 mph at times by evening. Heavy precipitation, thunderstorms with the potential for damaging winds and tornadoes, is forecast for eastern Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma and Arkansas this morning. This severe weather is forecast to move eastward to Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky and Tennessee later in the day, as indicated in RED on this graphic which is valid at 10:00 pm EST tonight.
South: The cold front associated with the low in Missouri will move across the South today. The result will be heavy precipitation, thunderstorms with the potential for damaging winds and tornadoes in eastern Texas, Mississippi and Alabama. Rain is expected from Georgia to Virginia.
Northeast: Precipitation will extend from Pennsylvania to New York and New England but snow should be restricted to northern Maine. Gusty south to southwest winds will be on the increase. (NWS and Various Media Sources)
Tropical Activity
At 4 a.m. EST today the center of Tropical Depression twenty-seven was located near latitude 14.6 north longitude 66.4 west or about 265 miles south of San Juan Puerto Rico. TD 27 does not threaten the United States based on its current forecast track.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph. A turn to the west is expected today.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Some increase in strength is possible during the next 24 hours.
TD 27 is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches will be possible over higher terrain.
The next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at 10:00 am EST.
Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico or Eastern Pacific Ocean: No tropical cyclones.
Western Pacific Ocean: TD 24W is east of the Philippines. Based on the current forecast the system poses no threat to U. S. assets. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) for an area of convection near 16.1N 135.8E, approximately 690 miles south-southwest of Iwo Jima, Japan. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone is good. (National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Earthquake Activity
In the United States there was no significant activity during the last 24 hours.
A magnitude 6.9 earthquake occurred off the east coast of Honshu Japan at 5:38 p.m. EST on November 14, 2005. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center predicted localized tsunamis (small tsunamis were observed in several parts of Tohoku, northeastern Japan) but no threat to other coastal areas.
(USDOI/USGS, National Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning center, Japanese Media)
Preliminary Damage Assessments
PDA's for selected counties in Iowa are scheduled to begin today, as a result of tornado damage in the State on November 12, 2005. (FEMA HQ)
Disaster Declaration Activity
No new activity to report.
Last Modified: Wednesday, 29-Mar-2006 13:59:25 EST