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National Situation Update: Wednesday, November 9, 2005

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Tornado Triggers Federal Assistance for Indiana

President Bush issued a Major Disaster Declaration (FEMA-1612-DR) Tuesday November 8, 2005, designating two counties in Indiana, Vanderburgh and Warrick, for Individual Assistance, allowing residents of those counties to apply for assistance to recover from severe storms and a tornado that ripped through in the early morning hours of Sunday, November 6, 2005.

At or about 2:00 a.m. CST, Sunday morning, the National Weather Service received reports of a tornado touchdown two miles northwest of Smith Mills in Henderson County, KY and moved northeast across the Ohio River and into Warrick County, IN. The peak wind was estimated to be 200 MPH with a swath of destruction over 400 yards wide running for approximately 41 miles.

Twenty-three lives were lost in Indiana, none in Kentucky. More than 200 injuries, with approximately 50 considered critical, were reported in both states.

The Governor of Indiana declared a State-wide Disaster Emergency as damages were assessed along the path of the storm. One-hundred and thirty National Guard troops were called in for use in debris clearance, search and rescue and security augmentation. Joint State/Federal Preliminary Damage Assessment Teams record over 300 homes destroyed with many more damaged in the two Indiana counties.

The Commonwealth of Kentucky conducted damage assessments and found Hart County the most severely impacted with damage to homes and businesses but did not make a request for Federal assistance. Only a few injuries were reported in Kentucky. (Region V and Various Media Sources)

FEMA-1611-DR Northern Mariana Islands

On Tuesday, November 8, 2005, the President issued a Major Disaster Declaration (FEMA-1611-DR) for the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands as a result of damages from Typhoon Nabi. Typhoon Nabi passed through the Islands August 30-31, 2005 with the eye of the storm approximately 35 miles north of Saipan. While there were damages to homes the primary impact was upon power and water utilities along with roads. Tuesday's designations were for the islands of Rota, Saipan and Tinian in the Public Assistance and Hazard Mitigation Grant Program categories. (Region IX and FEMA HQ)

National Weather

Midwest: A strong mid-level disturbance originating out of the northern Plains with very strong winds aloft made its way across the mid-Mississippi and upper Ohio Valleys Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with a healthy dose of low-level moisture (high humidity) and near-record warmth at the surface, and finally the triggering mechanisms of a cold front and warm front associated with a powerful storm system developing over the Upper Midwest to prompt concerns for severe storms in the region.

Potential impact areas will be in southern Wisconsin, the northern half of Illinois, southwestern Michigan, Indiana, and western Ohio. As the vigorous storm system heads into southern Ontario, very strong winds on the backside of the storm will whip through the Great Lakes. Wind advisories and high wind warnings are in place for the states of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph and gusts to 45 mph are expected however winds along the eastern lakeshore of Michigan may gust between 50 and 60 mph. By Thursday, underneath a pocket of cold air aloft, instability rain and snow showers will flutter through Michigan but otherwise sunshine along with more seasonable temperatures can be expected throughout the majority of the Midwest.

Northeast: The potential severe weather event for the Ohio Valley will shift to the Northeast later in the day on Wednesday. A powerful storm system that will trek from Lake Superior into eastern Ontario over the course of the day and its associated warm and cold fronts will spark strong-to-severe thunderstorms across the majority of the region.

This will not only be an event for the interior Northeast during the late afternoon hours, but strong thunderstorms will also tear east towards the I-95 corridor by late Wednesday into very early Thursday.

South: By Wednesday evening, a sharp cold front extending from Tennessee to central Texas may trigger widely scattered showers and thunderstorms over the region. High temperatures, meanwhile, will range from the 60s in the Texas Panhandle and northern Oklahoma (behind the cold front) to the 80s throughout the Deep South. Highs in the Deep South on Thursday, however, will be considerably lower: in the 60s and 70s.

West: A few showers may skitter across northwest Washington; scattered rain and snow showers may dot parts of northern Utah, northwest Colorado and southern Wyoming (mainly early in the day); and light may spiral into Southern California, but that should be about it for rain and snow.

Temperatures are expected to be above seasonal norms in the Four Corners states, and near seasonal means elsewhere. Readings in the 30s will dominate the northern Rockies ranging upward to the 80s in the low deserts of the Southwest.

Highs in the 50s will prevail in western Washington and western Oregon while the 70s grace the Central Valley of California. (NWS, Various Media Sources)

Recovery of Electric Service in Florida

Florida Power and Light (FPL) has provided the following power restoration data, and full restoration dates, weather permitting, of the remaining 51,900 outages (reduced from 113,000 November 7), as of 9:00 pm EST November 8:

Flash Flooding Possible in Southern California

The National Weather Service (NWS) has issued a Flash Flood Watch in effect for the burn areas of Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles Counties through Wednesday evening, November 9, 2005 because a Pacific storm system off the coast of Southern California has the potential to bring periods of heavy rainfall and possible thunderstorms to Southern California west of the mountains.

By morning, rainfall should increase in area coverage and intensity further inland and continue Wednesday spreading from west to east through Los Angeles County. As a result, the burn areas will be especially vulnerable to flash flooding with mud and debris flows through Wednesday evening and due to the slow moving nature of this upper level low pressure system, scattered showers could continue into Thursday night.

The Flash Flood Watch will remains in effect through Wednesday evening for the Gaviota Burn Area as locally heavy rain with accumulations of 0.5 to 1.5 inches with local amounts up to 2 inches are expected along coastal areas below the Santa Ynez Mountains. Higher amounts of 1 to 3 inches with local amounts up to 4 inches are expected in the Santa Ynez Range.

The greatest threat for heavy rain will be through Wednesday and rainfall amounts may be sufficient to produce flash flooding with mud and debris flows below the Gaviota Burn Area. This could result in flooding of the pacific coast highway near Gaviota. In addition, a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Wednesday evening for the burn areas of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties as well for the Topanga, Harvard, Gorman, Tovey, Pine, Crown, Foothill, Piru, Simi, and Padua Burn Areas through Wednesday evening. Locally heavy rain with accumulations of 0.5 to 1.5 inches with local amounts up to 2 inches near thunderstorms. Higher amounts of 1 to 3 inches can be expected in the mountains and foothills with local amounts up to 4 inches possible. The greatest threat for heavy rain will be late tonight through Wednesday.

Rainfall amounts may be sufficient to produce flash flooding with mud and debris flows below the burn areas. Especially prone to flooding would be the most recent burn areas which include the Topanga, Harvard, Gorman, and Tovey burn areas. (National Weather Service)

Additional Severe Storms and Tornadoes Possible

Conditions are developing in the Upper Midwest for an outbreak of severe weather tonight that includes supercells with tornadoes. The storms will develop along the warm front as it continues to advance north through the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Wednesday, the severe weather will shift to Ohio, western Pennsylvania and West Virginia where storms will form along the cold front with the threat of wind damage and large hail.

Warm and humid air, which is very rare in the Midwest this time of year, is moving north under a very strong jet stream. The wind profiles across the Midwest are showing very strong shear developing which is the key ingredient for thunderstorms to form and begin to rotate. The shear is essentially the turning of the wind in a clockwise manner with height. The stronger the winds are at the middle levels of the atmosphere, the greater the chance the storms will rotate and produce tornadoes.

While the greatest risk of tornadoes will be early tonight during the explosive development phase of the supercell storms. Later tonight, the storms will form into clusters, which will be capable of producing wind damage and large hail.

Areas under concern tonight are southern Wisconsin, northern half of Illinois, southwestern Michigan, Indiana, and western Ohio. Again, this is a late night event, so take precautions before heading to bed.

As the vigorous storm system heads into southern Ontario, very strong winds on the backside of the storm will whip through the Great Lakes. Wind advisories and high wind warnings are in place for the states of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan. (NWS and Various Media Sources)

Rockslide Cripples Interstate 90 Over Snoqualmie Pass

Two travel lanes, one going east, one heading west, have been carved from the rubble of Sunday's major rockslide which closed Interstate 90 east of Snoqualmie Pass in Washington State. About one hundred yards of rock fell on the road with some pieces weighing 10,000 pounds. As much as 400 cubic yards of rock, or 40 dump-truck loads, poised to fall onto the roadway continues to hamper a timeline for when full service of the highway will be available.

This is the second major rockslide to impact the road in the past three months. A rock fall in September, roughly eight miles west of Sunday's incident, killed three motorists. The Governor has ordered the state Department of Transportation to prepare a full report on slope hazards on the I-90 Snoqualmie Pass. (Region X and Various Media Sources)

Tropics - Early November, Late in the Season

The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season has shattered many long-standing records, chief among them a record number of named storms (23), requiring the use of the Greek alphabet. The tropical weather pattern across the Atlantic Basin has become very quiet. There are no active tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin at the moment and no development is anticipated in the near future. However, this is not unusual given the time of the year.

The National Weather Service (NWS) and the commercial and international services are still tracking identifiable tropical waves along 45 west, along 68 west, along 81 west, and along 96 west. Typically this time of the year, NWS and their commercial and international partners are only tracking one or two tropical waves. Therefore, to see four is still quite remarkable for early November.

In the Eastern Pacific, showers and thunderstorms continue with the tropical wave located about 500 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. This system has the potential to become a tropical depression over the next day or two as it moves westward.

Fortunately, the model outputs do not suggest any features developing within the next 7 days. There is some hint at possible development over the southwest Caribbean and over the western Atlantic beyond 7 days. This is because the mean weather pattern will keep a high pressure ridge over or near the southeast US through the next 7 days and this feature will keep a low to mid level steering flow out of the northeast. Therefore, even if development were to occur in the southwest Atlantic or over the Caribbean, it would be very difficult for any feature to motion toward the US.

However, the hurricane season does continue on to November 30, 2005 and the upper level ridge stretched out west to east over the Gulf of Mexico is stronger than usual. If a ridge like this were to become oriented more north south, the upper air pattern could help bring any late season tropical system northward. Once again, NWS and their commercial and international partners do not see anything like this occurring within the next 7-10 days.

US hurricane landfalls in November, thankfully, are very rare. Since 1861, only 6 US November hurricane landfalls have occurred, most recently 20 years ago when Category 2 Hurricane Kate struck near Apalachicola, Fla. This is the only November US hurricane landfall in the last 70 years.

November named storms have not been wholly unusual to the Atlantic Basin. Last year, Tropical Storm Otto flared in the open Atlantic Ocean the last day of November and a pair of tropical storms, Odette and Peter, spun up in early December 2003. (NWS and Commercial Sources)

Tropical Activity

For the north Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: tropical storm formation is not expected through Wednesday.

For the eastern north Pacific east of 140 degrees west longitude: shower activity has increased this afternoon with a tropical wave located about 500 miles south of Manzanillo. Some development is possible over the next day or two as this system moves westward. Otherwise, tropical storm formation is not expected through Wednesday.

For the central north Pacific between 140w and 180: no tropical cyclones are expected through Thursday afternoon.

No activity impacting US interests is reported in the south or west Pacific or the Indian Ocean. (National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

A light earthquake occurred at 0717Z on Wednesday, November 9, 2005. The magnitude 4.5 event has been located in Central Alaska. The event, which caused no injuries or damages, was located 43 miles ESE from Denali National Park, AK and 96 miles south of Fairbanks, AK. Over the past week, at least 22 seismic events have been detected within 100 miles of Denali National Park, AK south of Fairbanks and north of Anchorage, AK.

In the continental US, The Geysers and Toms Place, CA were seismically active registering 5 and 10 events each respectively over the past 24 hours. These events caused no injuries or damages. (USDOI/USGS, National Earthquake Information Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-1611-DR -Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, declared November 8, 2005, as a result of Typhoon Nabi. Woodrow Goins is the named Federal Coordinating Officer (FCO). The islands of Rota, Saipan and Tinian are eligible for Public Assistance for emergency work and the repair or replacement of disaster-damaged facilities as well as program assistance to prevent or reduce long term risk to life and property from natural hazards as prescribed in the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program.

FEMA-1612-DR-Indiana, declared November 8, 2005, as a result of tornado and severe storms on November 6, 2005. Brad Gair is the named FCO. Individuals and households in Vanderburgh and Warrick Counties are designated as eligible to apply for Individual Assistance. (FEMA HQ)