Art's Message
Hurricane Katrina – Can it Happen in New England? Are We Prepared?
On average, a hurricane makes landfall in New England every 10 to 20 years. Between 1938 - 1954, three Category 3 hurricanes made landfall in New England.
The Hurricane of '38, nicknamed the Long Island Express due to its forward speed and intensity, killed an estimated 500-700 people and caused over $6 billion in damage in today's dollars. Some estimates have projected a similar hurricane striking New England today would inflict damages upwards of $24 billion. By comparison, Katrina, which also made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane, caused over $81 billion in damage along the Gulf Coast.
More recently, hurricanes Gloria and Bob hit New England as a Category 1 in 1985 and Category 2 in 1991. Bob was the more powerful of the two storms, particularly on Cape Cod, where the strongest winds were recorded on the Outer Cape at 125 mile-per-hour gusts and 100 mph sustained winds.
The biggest difference between the hurricanes of '38 and '54 is the densely populated coastline in New England today. Of the region's 14 million people, approximately 7.5 million live within large urban centers along the coast. This puts far more lives and property at risk in the event of a powerful Category 3 hurricane.
Of course, we do have one major advantage today - our ability to predict hurricanes. However, hurricanes common to New England, like those of '38 and Bob in '91, tend to be fast moving events. We estimate that once a similar storm projected to threaten New England reaches Cape Hatteras, we would only have 8-10 hours before landfall.
So, the short answer to our original question - "can a Katrina-like event happen here?" - is yes. The second question - "are we prepared?" - isn't as simple to answer.
The challenge for us (in emergency management) is to combat the complacency that sets in by the citizenry and public officials when an event doesn't occur frequently. Community preparedness and individual preparedness will always be a challenge because in many ways, we can never be fully prepared. However, the message of preparedness can go a long way towards affecting positive results when we have the support of our partners at the state and local level as well as in the private sector.
The lack of partnership, communication and preparedness were some of the failures exposed by Hurricane Katrina. Particularly in Louisiana, the communication between the local governments and the State, and ultimately FEMA, was hindered by both technology and culture.
In New England, we are taking significant steps forward in creating what we call a "seamless system of emergency management" - Vision 2010. This new initiative outlines a full educational program for both individual, family and community preparedness. Partnering with both the public and private sectors, we will measure each community in the region against hazard risk.
I'll speak more on Vision 2010 in the coming months. Please join us in sharing the preparedness message with your families, co-workers and constituencies. Together we will make New England stronger and ever-ready for the future.
Last Modified: Sunday, 25-Nov-2007 12:09:48 EST